DRaysBay: FanPosts

All Star thread

2009-07-05T17:03:46Z

It's time and heres the tread!

blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah

question about options

2009-07-05T09:09:51Z

Alright I was playing a Baseball Mogul computer game last night and I got to thinking about player options. The way I understand the rule is that as long as a player as options left he can be sent down to the minors without having to clear waivers and that a player can only use up 1 option per year and in that year can be sent up or down an unlimited amount of time. Now I may be wrong on that and if I am correct me but if that is the case, what is keeping a team like the Rays from say using a guy like Price who still has options and "send him down" after every start and "call him up" before his scheduled start and using a guy like Dale Thayer or Andy Sonnanstine who are in the same position out of the bullpen the 4 games between starts. Basically keep 26 guys around and make a roster move every 5 games.

David Price and release points

2009-07-05T01:08:37Z

His MLB debut, he didn't walk a batter in 5.1 innings against the Yankees:

His release point was at or below the line, and strikes ensued. His next appearance was in relief against Minnesota. Both outs he got were strikeouts, and he didn't issue a walk.

Looks like his release point was about the same. Next time out was a start against Baltimore, where he walked 3 in 5.1 innings:

Uh oh, his release point crept upwards. Then there was today's abortion of a start:

via brooksbaseball.net

David Price needs to get low.

Rays fas...When you hear NYS do you think Cheap HR to Right? (Statistics included)

2009-07-04T20:55:10Z

FYI This is my first Fanpost here... So if it sucks there is my excuse.

A lot has been made of the Homers being hit out of the NYS at an alarming rate this year, Is it really that bad?

Currently the stadium is averaging 3.38 Hr's a game which leads the major leagues by far. The next closest stadium is Citizens Bank Park, ( AVG 2.94 HRPG) Looking quickly at the numbers to date:

The average is 2.225 HRPG in the AL
And average is 1.90 HRPG in the NL
Making the MLB HRPG avg 2.08
This brings the Yanks new stadium to a full 1.3 HRPG higher. Is this significant?

http://www.hittrackeronline.com/stadiums.php <--- photos and stats came from this website

What is more telling than the amount of HR's being hit is the quality of them. This is a bit harder to put on paper but when watching games featuring the NYS one may notice that what appears to be a lazy fly ball to RF tends to be a HR quite often. (cheap HR's)

Here is a look at the Spray charts of a couple ballparks for comparison:

NEW YANKEE STADIUM

via www.hittrackeronline.com

I would venture to say almost 1/3 of all hrs hit are to short right and between 300-350 feet. Not really quality bombs.
AVG TRUE DISTANCE - 391.2

TROPICANA FIELD - hovers around the AL average at 2.23 HRPG

via www.hittrackeronline.com

In contrast around 80% of the HRs hit here look to be between 350-400 Ft and are distributed much more equally it would seem.
AVG TRUE DISTANCE - 390.3

CITIZENS BANK PARK - the second highest HRPG in the Major leagues at 2.94 HRPG

via www.hittrackeronline.com

Again look at the Range rings here you can see how the homers seem a lot further than most being hit out at NYS
AVG TRUE DISTANCE - 396.2

KAUFFMAN STADIUM - The least HRPG in the AL at 1.61 HRPG

via www.hittrackeronline.com

AVG TRUE DISTANCE - 412.4

The AVG TRUE DISTANCE on 3 of the 4 parks is pretty close when you look at it. This was suprising to me.

But looking at all the information provided I ask you this, is this significant?
Does this give the New York Yankees any sort of an advantage over visiting ballclubs?
Should they be forced to modify this stadium to compensate for the amount homers being launched out?

Poll

Should the NYY be forced to modify their stadium?

stpetelawyer got married tonight!!

2009-07-03T23:58:37Z

Hey...I am a long time reader and a first time poster...just wanted to let you all know that our buddy STPETELAWYER married a WOMAN(!) tonight. good luck buddy!

Small questions for the locals

2009-07-03T06:42:31Z

Hello Rays fans,

A wandering Braves fan here, continuing on the consummate baseball quest to visit every Major League park. If the flights look good, I find myself eyeballing the remote possibility of visiting Tropicana Field, on Thursday July 9th, as the Toronto Blue Jays visit your hometown Rays, for an afternoon game.

If all goes according to plan, I really do not have a whole lot of time to wander about Tampa and St. Petersburg aside from just the ball game, but I would just like ask just a couple of quick questions, that I'm hoping the locals can help me out with.

Taxis - from Tampa's airport to the Trop is showing about 26.1 miles. Would you folks suggest that I cab it, or just plunk down the cash to get a rental - basically initial estimates are showing that I'd be paying $50 for the 12-hour window I'd be looking at, for an economy car. I guess what would help is if anyone could spare some knowledge of if there are any storage lockers in Tampa's airport or not; if not, without question, the rental car will become necessity, as it would become my storage locker on wheels for the day.

Tickets - given the fact that it's a day game, would you folks suggest I just eat it at the box office, or does the Trop have a scalper scene that would afford me a good shot at getting a good seat for a nice price?

Park - I can read the fluff on tampabayrays.com, but I want to hear from you the locals, if there is truly anything at the Trop that I should make a must-see in my visit? Btw, I recall back when the devil was still around that Trop parking was free; I imagine with the nice run and influx of popularity that's proabably changed?

Food - I'm a bit of a foodie enthusiast when traveling, and I'm all about trying new and unique (read: big and strange) things that are mostly exclusive to your area. So here's the question - I've got one meal available; where in St. Petes/Tampa do you recommend? If it's any help to the kind of weirdo I am, I'm a fan of Man v. Food on the Travel Channel, and I like to try weird things out.

And that's really about it. Like I said, I don't have much more than an afternoon to spend in your fair city unfortunately, otherwise I'd be asking a lot more questions. Any help that any of you guys can provide will be greatly appreciated, and all feedback is welcome. So thank you in advance, and I look forward to the ideas and suggestions you guys have in store for me.

PS - if DRaysBay is interested, I can put together an unbiased, outsider's write-up about my experience at the Trop after the trip, if it occurs. In fact, I'm actually hitting up your AAA affiliates in Durham a day prior, so I could be sure to throw that in, as well.

Previous parks, with the help of local folks all around MLB cities: Great American Ball Park, Dodger Stadium, Angel Stadium, PETCO Park

7/2 11:59 P.M. Last chance All Star vote.

2009-07-02T23:55:58Z

This is the last day, 7/2/2009 to cast your online all star vote. At 11:59 P.M. the online All Star game voting ends. Votes can be cast 25 times and Carl Crawford needs that last bump to put him over the hump as the Rays can actually have (2) Tampa Bay players voted in for the 1st time in history. Has there ever been a Tampa Bay Ray voted in before? Longo's the shoe in.

Go to MLB.com and cast your vote 25 times. Personally, I just voted fopr the Rays and have left the rest of the form blank all week.

Top 10 AL OPS PD

2009-07-02T22:35:41Z

	Zo	Youk	Branyan	Hunter	Cabrera	Tex	Lind	Morneau	Damon	Longo
O- SW Strike	3.38%	3.85%	8.02%	6.69%	5.85%	3.90%	3.79%	7.00%	3.43%	6.55%
O-Contact	6.28%	5.02%	6.75%	8.21%	9.88%	7.72%	10.30%	11.32%	8.05%	7.21%
Balls	44.94%	42.43%	41.83%	39.10%	35.67%	43.98%	39.50%	37.69%	40.02%	35.74%
Called Strikes	18.48%	19.63%	10.55%	14.26%	14.39%	16.47%	17.49%	12.89%	17.17%	17.22%
Z-Contact	23.93%	25.47%	25.49%	28.53%	30.76%	25.75%	26.10%	27.31%	28.32%	27.32%
Z- Sw Strike	2.99%	3.61%	7.36%	3.21%	3.46%	2.18%	2.80%	3.80%	3.01%	5.96%

It appears our beloved Zorilla leads the top 10 POSers in % of pitches taken for balls, and second only to Texeira in swinging strike %.

Its also interesting that the two leaders in OPS blow all others away in % of pitches taken. 63.4% for ZO and 62.05% ofr Youk. Tex is within range at 60.45%, but then it drops to 57% and below. Thats a big gap. Thats what I've been harping on about Zo, he swings at good pitches to hit.

Almost midseason thoughts.

2009-07-02T17:06:00Z

Just some thoughts as we move closer to the all-star break

The rays really don't need to trade anyone unless we are getting to good of a deal to pass up. We shouldn't trade Wade Davis or any of our prospects for that matter unless at a unrefusable price. NO BOBBY JENKS. No bullpen no closers! We don't need them. All this talk about a designated closer needs to be put to rest. Maddon has something figured out that we should stand behind. Even if the closer fort the night is Dan Wheeler he will get the job done. Our bullpen has started clicking and there is no reason to fix whats not broken. Don't move the rotation around unless someone gets injured. I like seeing David Price James Shields Matt Garza Jeff Niemann and Scott Kazmir on paper. If i have any problems with the team it would be the 'rest' deal. Play the guys that are gonna win ballgames, thats all i ask. Let gross play everyday right field.

If anyone trade: Reid Brignac, or Tim Beckham

Get: Right fielder or closer

Im really high on fernando perez hopefully he will make a speedy recovery. Put him in right maddon. That would be a sickly fast outfield.

Rays (should be all stars): Bartlett, Zobrist, Longo, Crawford, Howell

Thanks Draysbay team for all your hard work.

The African American Intelligencia Loves the Rays

2009-07-02T14:34:55Z

...probably.

From an article on The Root about Manny returning

In the American League East, the usual suspects—the Red Sox and the New York Yankees—are dueling at the top with the Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays a few games back. All four teams have suffered through significant injuries and surprising bouts of ineffectiveness. Of the four contenders, the Rays have the best run differential, so barring further injuries or slick trades by the other teams, Tampa Bay should win this division, and the Yankees and Red Sox will battle for the wild card.

I'm not saying the logic is unassailable, but it's nice to see none-the-less.

As a bonus this article spends a lot of time talking shit about the NL, which I whole-heartedly support.

7/1 Minor League GDT: Rodriguez and De Los Santos

2009-07-01T22:34:12Z

Some asked for it, so here you go.

Montgomery has Anuery Rodriguez on tap and Bowling Green sends out Frank De Los Santos.

All start around 7 PM EST.

All-Star Game Rosters Expanded

2009-07-01T20:31:37Z

Via MLB.com

Major League Baseball announced today that All-Star Game rosters have been expanded from 32 players to 33, with the extra spot being designated for a 13th pitcher. The spot for the additional All-Star pitcher will be among the managerial choices, which are made after the fan-elected starting position players and the Player Ballot-elected reserve position players and pitchers have been determined.

The A.L. and N.L. All-Star Teams will each have eight fan-elected starting position players. Player Ballot choices will add eight reserve position players and eight pitchers (five starters and three relievers) to the All-Star rosters. Then, eight selections, including the new additional All-Star pitcher, will be made by the two All-Star Team managers - A.L. skipper Joe Maddon of the Tampa Bay Rays and N.L. manager Charlie Manuel of the Philadelphia Phillies - in conjunction with MLB. In making their selections, the managers must ensure that each Club is represented in the All-Star Game.

Immediately following the announcement of the A.L. and N.L. All-Star rosters, fans will begin voting to select the final player for each League's 33-man roster via the 2009 All-Star Game Sprint Final Vote on MLB.com, casting their votes over a four-day period from a list of five players from each League. The winners will be announced after the voting concludes on Thursday, July 9th. For the fifth year, fans will also be able to make their Final Vote selections on their mobile phone; Sprint subscribers will have the exclusive opportunity to cast votes for the winners of the Final Vote by text on Sprint capable phones. Standard text rates apply.

The 2009 American League and National League All-Star Teams will be unveiled on Sunday, July 5th on the 2009 MLB All-Star Selection Show presented by Pepsi, televised nationally on TBS from 1:00-2:00 p.m. (EDT).

Checking in with the pitching on the farm... part 2

2009-07-01T16:11:20Z

Charlotte
Player	W	L	ERA	G	GS	SV	IP	H	R	HR	HB	BB	SO	WHIP	FIP
Matthew Gorgen	3	0	0.72	22	0	10	37.6	19	4	1	2	13	47	0.85	2.24
Rayner Oliveros	1	0	1.24	11	1	0	29	17	4	1	2	5	30	0.76	2.3
Justin Garcia	5	2	4.25	21	0	1	36	30	18	2	0	8	36	1.06	2.59
Darin Downs	7	3	2.23	13	13	0	76.6	80	26	5	2	11	75	1.19	2.6
David Newmann	3	3	3.27	12	12	0	63.3	47	27	2	5	26	71	1.15	2.84
Alexander Cobb	4	4	3.3	15	15	0	73.6	77	32	5	5	15	68	1.25	3.05
Tommy Rafferty	0	1	2.77	7	0	0	13	8	6	1	0	5	13	1	3.35
Paul Phillips	2	1	3.33	18	0	2	27	27	12	2	2	10	27	1.37	3.5
Kevin Boggan	0	3	4.28	17	0	0	27.3	36	18	3	1	6	25	1.54	3.57
Jeremy Hall	8	4	4.19	14	14	0	73	76	40	7	5	16	56	1.26	3.78
Brian Flores	0	3	6.49	18	1	1	34.6	41	28	2	0	16	20	1.64	4.18
Austin Hinkle	1	2	3.06	19	0	5	35.3	29	15	5	2	15	34	1.25	4.56
Jesse Darcy	2	6	5.32	13	13	0	69.3	89	47	10	3	12	28	1.46	4.92
Jose Angel Mejias	1	2	8.38	9	3	0	19.3	28	22	6	1	3	16	1.6	6.21

Bowling Green
Player	W	L	ERA	G	GS	SV	IP	H	R	HR	HB	BB	SO	WHIP	FIP
Josh Satow	1	0	2.83	24	0	9	35	30	11	0	1	7	42	1.06	1.49
Joseph Cruz	3	3	3.02	11	11	0	50.6	54	23	3	1	12	56	1.3	2.53
Matthew Moore	4	3	3.14	14	14	0	63	39	27	3	3	42	93	1.29	3.01
Marquis Fleming	1	3	1.38	22	0	2	32.6	30	11	1	1	10	24	1.22	3.14
Nick Barnese	2	1	1.64	5	5	0	22	16	5	1	3	3	16	0.86	3.15
Tommy Rafferty	2	0	3.9	15	0	1	27.6	29	14	1	2	8	22	1.34	3.16
Neil Schenk	1	2	4.28	21	2	0	40	50	27	3	2	11	37	1.53	3.3
Shane Dyer	1	6	5.07	13	13	0	65.6	76	41	2	10	17	45	1.42	3.46
Tyree Hayes	4	3	4.76	19	1	0	45.3	53	26	5	2	16	46	1.52	3.8
Michael Jarman	4	5	3.24	12	8	0	50	49	30	5	1	13	37	1.24	3.86
Chris Andujar	8	2	2.64	17	7	0	61.3	54	23	4	1	19	33	1.19	3.95
Frank De Los Santos	3	6	4.19	14	14	0	68.6	74	40	5	3	25	44	1.44	4.09
Jamie Bagley	1	3	6.03	23	0	8	37.3	39	27	3	1	15	25	1.45	4.19
Diego Echeverria	2	1	8.53	16	0	0	31.6	42	38	4	3	17	23	1.86	5.29

Checking in with the pitching on the farm... part 1

2009-07-01T16:10:10Z

Hudson Valley
Player	W	L	ERA	G	GS	SV	IP	H	R	HR	HB	BB	SO	WHIP	FIP
Aaron Dott	0	1	4.32	2	2	0	8.3	8	7	0	0	0	9	0.96	1.03
Richard De Los Santos	0	0	0	3	0	3	4	1	0	0	0	0	4	0.25	1.2
Zachary Quate	0	0	0	2	0	1	2	2	1	0	0	0	2	1	1.2
Daniel April	0	0	0

Durham
Player	W	L	ERA	G	GS	SV	IP	H	R	HR	HB	BB	SO	WHIP	FIP
Winston Abreu	3	0	1.41	23	0	10	32	14	5	1	0	10	49	0.75	1.48
Randy Choate	3	0	3.72	21	0	0	19.3	16	8	0	0	9	15	1.29	3.04
Dale Thayer	0	3	1.72	29	0	11	36.6	28	15	1	1	12	24	1.09	3.31
Wade Davis	7	4	2.9	16	16	0	90	80	37	5	2	35	75	1.28	3.49
Mitch Talbot	4	4	4.47	10	10	0	54.3	67	29	3	2	18	40	1.56	3.55
Joe Bateman	4	1	4.3	21	0	0	29.3	15	14	0	5	20	29	1.19	3.78
Jason Cromer	1	2	1.18	7	6	0	38	21	5	3	2	12	25	0.87	4.02
Carlos Hernandez	5	4	3.63	15	15	0	84.3	79	37	7	3	32	62	1.32	4.05
Calvin Medlock	1	0	2.93	7	0	0	15.3	13	7	1	2	4	8	1.11	4.18
Julio DePaula	1	3	4.27	27	1	1	46.3	51	27	4	4	23	34	1.6	4.6
Dewon Day	3	1	4.76	22	0	1	28.3	35	19	3	0	15	21	1.76	4.68
David Price	1	4	3.93	8	8	0	34.3	28	20	5	1	18	35	1.34	4.72
Chad Orvella	0	1	6.12	19	0	0	32.3	36	22	5	0	11	24	1.45	4.75
Jason Childers	6	2	4.88	30	1	0	48	52	26	8	0	17	33	1.44	5.05
Matt DeSalvo	0	1	5.2	7	7	0	36.3	31	21	3	1	24	23	1.51	5.07
James Houser	4	4	5.23	13	13	0	62	65	41	7	7	42	36	1.73	5.88

Montgomery
Player	W	L	ERA	G	GS	SV	IP	H	R	HR	HB	BB	SO	WHIP	FIP
Jeremy Hellickson	2	1	2.08	8	8	0	39	28	9	1	1	9	48	0.95	1.84
Paul Phillips	2	0	0	9	0	2	11	3	0	0	0	3	7	0.55	2.75
Brian Baker	4	1	3.13	19	6	0	54.6	54	19	3	1	16	49	1.28	3.05
Heath Rollins	7	6	3.66	16	16	0	93.3	93	42	4	6	24	59	1.25	3.46
Rayner Oliveros	2	0	4.44	9	2	1	24.3	21	12	2	2	9	24	1.23	3.65
Calvin Medlock	0	1	3.52	23	0	13	30.6	23	13	6	1	4	37	0.88	3.82
Eduardo Morlan	3	3	2.68	29	0	4	40.3	37	14	3	2	17	35	1.34	3.85
Brandon Mann	4	4	4.82	16	10	1	65.3	66	40	3	2	27	37	1.42	4
Jason Cromer	4	3	5.01	8	8	0	41.3	53	28	3	3	9	21	1.5	4
Chris Mason	3	4	6.08	21	3	0	47.3	63	38	4	1	19	29	1.73	4.34
Ryan Reid	0	1	4.85	21	0	0	29.6	34	21	1	1	20	20	1.82	4.42
Neal Frontz	1	0	5.21	30	0	1	46.6	48	27	5	2	23	35	1.52	4.7
Michael Wlodarczyk	0	3	7.13	27	0	5	35.3	38	29	2	3	22	23	1.7	4.76
Ryan Morse	2	6	5.59	16	11	0	56.3	62	38	7	1	31	32	1.65	5.38
Aneury Rodriguez	4	8	6.27	15	15	0	70.3	67	52	11	5	39	58	1.51	5.46

SOSH Auction to K ALS

2009-07-01T16:02:32Z

Brooks Baseball provides some of the finest raw data you can find on pitch f/x completely free of charge. They ask only that you spread their name. They have a new request. Go to this LINK and see what you can do to help. I'm no fan of SOSH nor the Red Sox, but I do support Brooks in what they do. If anything, go there and see if you can help out in some way. Thanks for everything Brooks and good luck guys in helping people feel a little better.

Jeff Niemann Mr. Consistently Inconsistently Consistent

2009-06-30T21:29:37Z

As many of you are aware there have been a couple of posts lately pertaining to the issue of pitching and volatility.

I initially took a look at it and one of the conclusions that I found was Jeff Niemann was the consistent, albeit definitely not the best, pitcher on staff

Sandy Kazmir then took their previous work a step further and estimated wins based upon pitcher volatility combined with run distribution (in the form of "FIH)

Those articles can be found here: Intro to Volatility and Updated Deserved Wins

Those articles as well as Niemann’s recent performance raised my interest into Mr. Niemann. If you browse around DRaysBay, The Heater, talk radio, and other outlets you’ll see quite a bit of praise on Niemann. Of course the level of knowledge is vastly different based upon the source, but its exists nonetheless. Some of the praise that you’ll hear is that Niemann is improving, he is consistent, one of our best pitchers, etc.

It is very easy to see why Niemann’s 2009 is perceived the way it is. All you have to do is look at the histogram of earned runs. ER is still a popular mainstream metric although it is obviously very flawed. He has given up 3 earned runs or less in 80% of his starts. Oh by the way he is leading the team in wins. For the public that is excellent.

via lh3.ggpht.com

Does the perception equal the reality? And if so is the reality sustainable?

Earned runs just do not tell the whole story. Lets see if the reality matches using FIP. Firstly lets look at a good and interesting comparable to Niemann, Rick Porcello. As you can see by just looking at the graph Niemann has been more consistent than Porcello even using FIP. I also added a trendline for Niemann’s starts and as we can see his FIP is trending downward. That again is excellent.

via lh5.ggpht.com

Now lets really see if the reality matches the perception. I took a sample of a good handful of pitchers, as well as the 2009 Rays starters and measured their volatility. Niemann rates very well on this scale as he is 5th out of 22.. Niemann’s 1.795 Standard Deviation is in fact closer to the leader of this sample, Adam Wainwright at 1.60 than it is to the 6th most consistent at 2.01. As you can see Niemann does have a lower volatility than Porcello here confirming out suspicions founded in the previous graph. It appears the perception may be the reality.

via lh3.ggpht.com

On the other hand we see a few Rays trailing at the back of the group. Hopefully they can pick it up and become more consistent.

Out of this sample Niemann’s average start posts a FIP of 4.79 which puts him 14th out of 22 in this group. His "yearly" FIP on fangraphs is 4.69. I’ve been doing a bit of research on looking at volatility and FIP in this manner and I have found a correlation (looking at 2006/2007/2008/some 2009) of around ~.6-.7. In other words this means as the average FIP per start raises so does the volatility. Note this exercise is done for around 15 starts for each of these 22 so the sample size will have to bear out. What I’ve seen so far (in looking at 06/07/08/09 is that there is certainly a fair amount of year over year change in volatility for pitchers; however, generally there appears to be distinct ranges for pitchers. Some pitchers certainly seem more consistent than others when looking..

Either way this is the first anomaly for Niemann. Medium to high average FIP per start pitchers just cannot seem to sustain this low volatility. Niemann in fact has the highest spread between average FIP by start and volatility in this sample. This could be a bad sign in the future.

The next stage is to break down Niemann’s FIP to see what is really driving his consistent numbers. In this analysis we are just going to look at the basic components of FIP: HR, IP, K, BB. There has been some analysis on this site that has looked at how Niemann may improve those metrics. One way would be to throw more curves. However here we are just going to look at how those counting stats change over time by start.

via lh4.ggpht.com

Unfortunately we cannot take too much out of this graph. However it does begin to paint the picture that Niemann has in fact been all over the map (mainly IP) rather than the extremely consistent pitcher his start by start ER and FIP show. To further break this down we are going to look at the rates.

I decided to compare Niemann to Mr. Big Game James. I found this compelling because we all love Shields, think Shields is a great pitcher, he is a Ray, we think of him as consistent and yet he in fact has had higher volatility than Niemann. So let’s see how real that difference is or if it has been just a product of luck.

via lh4.ggpht.com

via lh3.ggpht.com

via lh4.ggpht.com

via lh3.ggpht.com

Out of everything in this post this is by far the most important. I’ve presented the data in both table and graph form. As you can see Shields has in fact been more consistent on a per start basis on each component than Niemann other than HRs (which Niemann is due for a regression). Shields has also flat out been better. The consistency and excellence of Shields over Niemann isn’t even close. Of course this Shields being better isn’t unexpected, but it does help us reach some not so great conclusions about Jeff.

This leads us to why Niemann has actually posted more consistent FIPs than Shields. The answer is simply luck. It appears that Niemann has little control over things like K, walks, or even the innings he pitches. He has simply been getting a "good combination" of those in each start equaling roughly the same FIP. However since each metric is very volatile it is only a matter of time before he has a "bad combination" such as high walks, low k’s, and low innings.

I’ll sum up with some pro’s and con’s

Pro’s:

Niemann’s FIP by start is trending downward
80% of Niemann’s starts have resulted in 3ER or less; 87% of 4 ER or less
He has not given up a home run in his last 6 starts
James Shields is rock solid. You know exactly what you are getting out of him every single start.

Con’s:

Niemann has been wildly inconsistent with his strikeouts, walks and innings pitched. It is really only a stroke of luck that he hasn’t produced wildly inconsistent (and bad) FIPs because of it.
His HR rate is due for a regression
Pitchers with high average per start FIP typically cannot sustain this low volatility
Sonny and Kaz haven’t been as bad as what people think (see my previous and Sandy Kazmir’s work), but wow they’ve been embarrassing as a whole. To have that type of volatility you really have to be all over the map.
We really have no idea what we are getting when Niemann takes the hill. He can give us a few innings or a complete game. He can give us literally 0 strikeouts and walks or he can do than at a rate of one per inning. The range is enormous and Niemann must be able to gain some consistency within his performance to become a reliable starter.

Hopefully Hickey and the crew can teach Niemann some new tricks in order to be consistent. Or perhaps they should take RJ’s advice and throw more breaking pitches. Or perhaps it will just take a bit more maturing and experience. However if all else fails it is very likely Niemann could be excellent trade bait at the end of this year. His "mainstream" numbers will be very good given that he is a young pitcher, but his underlying numbers may not.

Please God, Smite Steve Phillips

2009-06-29T01:10:39Z

Anyone watching this Mets-Yankees game, knows what I mean.

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Please

Official Draftee Signing Thread 2.0 Please rec

2009-06-27T20:04:58Z

Guys signed are in bold

1 OF/2B LeVon Washington

2 SS Kenny Diekroeger

3 OF Todd Glaesmann

4 C Luke Bailey

5 1B Jeff Malm

6 RHP Devin Fuller

7 OF Cody Rogers

8 OF Brett Nommensen

9 LHP Kevin James

10 SS Derek Dennis

11 RHP Alex Koronis

12 RHP Andrew Bellatti

13 RHP Hunter Hill

14 RHP Zach Quate

15 RHP Pierce Johnson

16 2B Tyler Bortnick

17 OF Alexander Diaz

18 LHP Jacob Partridge

19 RHP Scott Shuman

20 RHP Dylan Floro

21 RHP Matt Swilley

22 LHP Jake Sullivan

23 RHP Trevor Peterson

24 LHP Andrew Heaney

25 1B Ryan Wiegand

26 SS Daniel Rhault

27 RHP Brady Wager

28 LHP Zach Rosscup

29 OF Gabe Cohen

30 RHP Marcus Jensen

31 LHP Aaron Dott

32 RHP Alex Besaw

33 RHP Ryan McCarney

34 SS Kyle Spraker

35 OF Chris Murrill

36 RHP Jeff Cinadr

37 C Austin Maddux

38 3B Drew Hillman

39 LHP Dan April

40 LHP James Pazos

41 LHP Matt Stabelfeld

42 3B Bennett Davis

43 3B Geno Glynn

44 SS Kalani Brackenridge

45 LHP Cole Nelson

46 3B Aaron Oates

47 OF Jason Patton

48 OF James Roberts

49 RHP Vince Spilker

50 C David Wendt

Have said they won't sign:

23 RHP Trevor Peterson: Will honor commitment to Louisiana Tech

JC Romero: A real class act

2009-06-27T19:34:58Z

A New Port Richey man says he was assaulted by a Philadelphia Phillies player following Thursday's game against the Rays.

Robert Eaton, a 25-year-old father of two, said Phillies pitcher J.C. Romero grabbed him by the neck and pushed him after he made a comment about steroids.

For more on the story click here,

NEWS: After the Times reported Saturday of an incident between an unnamed Phillies player and a fan at Tropicana Field after Thursday's game at the Trop, the Phillies today issued this statement:

"We're disappointed to learn about the alleged incident with a Rays fan and one of our players following Thursday night's game at Tropicana Field. We are in the process of gathering all of the details surrounding the situation. Until such information is provided, it would be inappropriate for us to comment at this time."

The Times reported Saturday:
An incident took place between a fan and a Phillies player after Thursday's game, the Rays confirmed. ''At this point it is a police matter and for that reason we won't have any further comment," the team said in a statement, but did not identify the player. St. Petersburg Police officials could not be reached late Friday night, but a dispatcher confirmed that a report for a battery call was taken at the stadium at about 11 p.m. Thursday. The Phillies could not be reached for comment.

Introducing volatility to the 2009 Rays starting pitching

2009-06-27T06:10:19Z

Given the return of Scotty Kazmir, the demotion of Sonny, and questions surrounding the starting pitching in general I figured I'd take a deeper look into our Super Six Starters.

By now we all know where each pitcher stands with their season long FIP and tRA as well as where they stand among nearly useless but popular metrics such as wins/losses and ERA. FIP and tRA are excellent, and they do paint most of the picture. However I do think they miss a key component: volatility.

Volatility is important because teams are not evaluation based upon cumulative 162 game statistics. Teams are judged based upon 9 inning incriments. There is a difference between two pitchers if one has a FIP/tRA in three games ranging from 0, 6, and 6 and another pitcher with a FIP/tRA of 4, 4, and 4. The team of the first pitcher likely goes 1-2 whereas the other team actually has a shot of winning three games. As we certainly all know W's/Ls in the public context in relation to pitchers is largely irrelevant, however, the number of times a pitcher pitches well enough to give his team a shot at winning is largely ignored and is ultimately very important.

For the time being all of this is another way at looking what has happened. I have no idea whether it has any predictive power so lets rather use at as another way to explain 2009 so far.

There are quite a few ways to look at volatility and I hope to do so in the future. In this piece we are just going to look at it in general with a simple introduction.

First and foremost I took the FIP of each game started for each pitcher**. Obviously each pitcher has a different number of starts, but here are the FIPs for eachs of our starters for each start.

Firstly I apologize for the graph being tough to read. Basically some general highlights. Price has the best start. Sonny has the worst start. Sonny and Kaz both have two starts that are far worse than their others. Shields worst start was his first and has been solid ever since.

Here are some basic statistics:

All three of these metrics are fairly important. Firstly I calculated the "Yearly FIP" by using the cumulative season counting stats for each pitcher. I also average the FIP for each start for each pitcher. They certainly are different. Both are important in their own ways. However what is even more interesting is the standard deviations. Sonny and Kaz have by far the most volatility. Neimann has the least, which is quite a bit surprising. However is a high standard deviation good or bad? I'll glimpse into that in a bit but here is what I see. Neimann is consistently below average. That is going to result in poor losses (with our elite offense a bit more wins) since he has no volatility resulting in excellent games. Kazmir and Sonny both have higher FIPs, but they have far higher volatility. Therefore they'll have more games falling into the "winning" category due to their volatility. Generally if you have a great FIP you want low volatility, if you have a high FIP then more volatility is good. All of this with the overall goal in mind, maximing wins and losses for the team.

This next chart we are going to look at the individual volatility for each pitcher. 0% is set as the average FIP per start for each pitcher. Anything over 0% is something higher than their individual average. Anything lower is less than their average. Of course 0% for Kazmir is far higher base FIP than it is for Shields.

The few things I take out of this chart. Sonny clearly is the most volatile around his average. Neimann is very consistent. Garza is remarkably inconsistently consistent. He bounces above and below his mean slightly but very often. Kazmir and Sonny have two starts that really crush them. Shields has been improving as compared to his average (as has Neimann).

The last thing I want to share is something I find very interesting. As you've seen have had quite a bit of W and L theme to this post, and this is ultimately why. I cannot emphasize enough how wins and losses in the context of MLB pitchers are irrelevant. However my modifed W and L are actually a fairly good indicator of what each pitchers record SHOULD BE given the team that they are on. Typical wins and losses are based a lot on luck, run support, bullpen, and distribution of runs. I take all of those variables out here.

I assume that the Rays RPG has no standard deviation. We score our runs per game average every game. After 74 games this is 5.66

I assume that all 9 innings of the game is performed at the FIP of the starting pitcher. Therefore taking the bullpen out of the question

Therefore if the players FIP for that game is less than the Rays average RPG then they put the team in position to win. On average they should have won the game. If it is over the Rays RPG then they deserve to have lost. Clearly the variability of runs scored is important. A 6 FIP clearly gives the team a better chance of winning than a 15 FIP, and this modified W/L ignores that. I'm merely counting the times above and below the Rays RPG

According to this Sonny should have the second most Ws on the team. Why? Because of volatility. He has had 10 games where he has put up a lower FIP than what the Rays score. Sure some of those 5 games he "lost" were pretty bad, but they all count the same. Kazmir fits the same bill. Now lets take a look at Neimann and Shields. They've been our two most consistent pitchers. However Shields has been consistent on the good side and Neimann on the below average side. You see this in the hypothetical W/Ls. Even though the Rays have the highest RPG in the league Neimann has only truly pitched to a .500 record. This is due to his low volatility at a FIP right around our RPG. Shields**** has low volatility, but has a low FIP resulting in tons of good results.

Clearly a lot more work can be done with this type of analysis. I'm particularly interested in downside risk. However hopefully this gave some folks a different angle onto how to look at our pitchers.

**My FIP will be a bit different than what you see on FanGraphs. I'm using a different constant and only starting pitching innings. It won't truly matter as this is more of a comparison between starters and I used the same formula for each starter. However be very cautious if you try to compare one of these guys in this analysis to numbers you pull off of FanGraphs or another reference

****Shields start on Friday June 26th is not included