We reported last Tuesday that the Tampa Bay Rays were interested in Jeff Keppinger, and well, what do you know? Marc Topkin from the Tampa Bay Times is now reporting that the Rays are close to signing Keppinger, and that a deal could be announced later this week.

I was initially ambivalent about Keppinger, but the more I'm looking into this move, the more I like it. Keppinger is another bench bat, plain and simple. As such, he's competing against the following players for the three non-catcher bench spots on the Rays' roster:

Sam Fuld
Brandon Guyer
Elliot Johnson
Reid Brignac
Russ Canzler

We can eliminate Brandon Guyer from the list pretty easily. While I love him and I think he's a better offensive player right now than Sam Fuld, the Rays don't rush prospects. Despite his advanced age, Guyer will start the season in Triple-A and stay there until they think he's finally ready to hit the majors for good. This may seem extreme -- he did crush Triple-A last season over 440 plate appearances -- but Guyer has an important future with the Rays: he's expected to slide into the outfield in 2013 once B.J. Upton leaves via free agency. If the Rays halt his development by making him a bench player this season, what happens then?

So with Fuld on the team and Guyer in Triple-A, that leaves four players -- Keppinger, Johnson, Brignac, and Canzler -- for two bench spots. Canzler doesn't have much positional flexibility and the reports suggest his defense is poor, so he seems like an unlikely candidate with Carlos Pena and Luke Scott now in house.

And honestly? Out of Keppinger, Brignac, and Johnson, Kepp is the best player. His defense may be mediocre to poor, but he makes up for it with his bat. He has a good walk rate, doesn't strike out much, and he posted a .295 wOBA last season while struggling through two separate injuries (foot and wrist). That was a down year for Keppinger, too; he is projected to post around a .318 wOBA, and he posted a .332 wOBA in 2010.

While that may not sound like much, it's worth remembering how much Briggy and EJ both stunk at the plate last season. They were black holes; Johnson looked like the powerhouse of the two, and even he only had a .252 wOBA. Both of them would be lucky to post higher than a .295 wOBA, while that is essentially Keppinger's worst case scenario.

Also, as has been noted by many of you guys, Keppinger is a right-handed hitter who mashes lefties. He has a fantastic career line against lefties (.368 wOBA), while his line against righties is much less thrilling (.298 wOBA). Considering the Rays have recently signed a number of hitters with issues against left-handed pitching, doesn't it make sense to have a bench player that's good against them?

Remember when Friedman said this a few weeks ago?

"We obviously value defense a lot, but there's times where enough offense trips that line and makes it something that makes sense for the team."

At the time, I thought he was talking about a slugging first baseman, but the quote perfectly fits this situation. Keppinger has primarily played second base in recent years, and he looks like he's a poor fielder there (around -5 runs). But at the same time, his offense is considerably better than the Rays would receive from Briggy or EJ, and he's a good fit with their current roster construction. He can always play in the middle infield, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Rays tried him out at first base on occasion.

This is a bit of an atypical move for the Rays, as they're adding a bench player that isn't a defensive specialist. But considering everything else that Kepp brings to the table, I'm okay with it.

UPDATE: ESPN's Jerry Crasnick reports the deal is done pending a physical.

via o2.aolcdn.com

These days, it seems as if St. Pete Mayor Bill Foster is talking to anyone that puts a mic in his face after sitting down with Stu Sternberg on Tuesday to discuss matters. The Rays modus operandi after these meetings have been to remain very positive yet intentionally vague about what exactly was discussed while Foster seems to be on a coordinated plan to control the message by jumping on every television station and radio station in the market that will talk to him.

Today's session was with Ronnie Lane and Tom Krasniqi over at ESPN 1040's Primetime show and the responses were rather, um, interesting. You should already be listening to the show during drivetime anyhow as Tommy Rancel is on as a guest at least once a week, so if you aren't, tune in next week and try it out.

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Pinch me, I think I'm dreaming. I was hoping against hope that the Tampa Bay Rays would bring back Carlos Pena, and now that it's finally happened, I can barely collect my thoughts and put them into coherent sentences. My brain is one garbled up collection of emotion at the moment...not that I'm complaining.

And well, it looks like it's not just me:

Pena is obviously pumped about the move, texting back: "Sooooo excited ... !!!!!" and saying he's finalizing details now. ... Confirmed the deal is a one-year contract for $7.25-million. (Marc Topkin, Tampa Bay Times)

From a purely emotional, fan-centric perspective, I couldn't be happier that Pena is back. He was always one of my favorite players, and his smiles and positive attitude makes him one of the most love-able players in baseball. I have so many positive memories attached to him, and he's arguably one of the best players in franchise history. I'm sorry for getting so gooshy, but it just feels like he belongs in Tampa Bay, you know?

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First, Marc Topkin from the Tampa Bay Times reported that the Rays were close to reaching a deal with Luke Scott. Within minutes, we had this update from Dan Connolly at the Baltimore Sun:

Former #Oriole Luke Scott & the #Rays have agreed to a one-year deal with a 2013 option, pending physical.

Check one hitter off the offseason "To Do" list. Based on projections alone, Scott has some of the biggest upside of any hitter left on the free agent market (outside Prince Fielder...and Carlos Pena is close). He may be a risky option -- he'll be turning 34 this season and had shoulder surgery last season -- but if healthy, he has the potential to be a big power bat in the middle of the Rays lineup.

Can you imagine what the Rays' lineup could be like if they also sign Carlos Pena? Be still, my heart.

We'll have more on Scott later on, but for now, here's Tommy Rancel's piece about Scott when he was first released by the Orioles. Rancel also made an excellent point on Twitter: Dr. James Andrews was the surgeon that did Scott's shoulder last season and Andrews is the Rays' medical director according to the team's site.

From Enrique Rojas, ESPN Deportes:

Deal done between Fernando Rodney and #Rays. Rodney get $1.75 million in 2012, $2.5 million option in 2013 and 250K buyout.

My first thought: I was all ready to hate this deal, but the option year has me intrigued. The Rays have obviously had success in the past in helping pitchers with control issues, and Rodney's control is the only real thing preventing him from becoming a dominant back-end reliever like Grant Balfour. He throws 95 MPH and has a good changeup. He generates 50+% grounders. He keeps the ball in the yard. His pitching profile is quite sexy....if he can learn some control.

If the Rays see Rodney as a fixable problem, then this deal could work out fantastic. Farnsworth and Peralta will likely be out the door after this season, so if Rodney does breakout, this deal provides the Rays with some back-end bullpen depth for 2013.

Of course, that's assuming the Rays can straighten out Rodney's control, which is by no means a guarantee. Remember Juan Cruz from last season? He was a similar case as Rodney -- older, Power Arm, control issues -- but had some extra injury concerns as well. He was somewhat successful for the Rays last season (3.88 ERA, 4.20 FIP), but he didn't harness that control and take things to the next level.

So that's how I see Rodney: he has the potential to be the next Balfour, but also the potential to become another Cruz. If the Rays can't fix his control issues, oh well, they only dumped $2 million into him. At the very least, Rodney should be a good low-to-mid leverage reliever in 2012, and this signing won't handicap the Rays in acquiring an offensive player this season or in their endeavors next offseason.

The Rays obviously see something in Rodney, and they seem to strongly believe they can turn him around. He's a gamble, for sure, but I'll trust the Rays' staff on this one. If they think they can fix Rodney, then I'm all for it.

Update, 12:03am: Here's the latest on this from Marc Topkin, Tampa Bay Times:

#Rays deal with Rodney is NOT done, but is definitely in the works. Could be something official in next day or two.

So we'll have to wait for the final word, but it does seem like Rodney will be a Ray. The big question is how much his contract will guarantee. I'm keeping my fingers crossed for a low base salary (minor league deal, please?) with incentives.

Original report: According to a report from ESPN Deportes, the Tampa Bay Rays have signed Fernando Rodney to a 1 year, $2-ish million deal. The story has been corroborated by Enrique Rojas from ESPN Deportes, and the story linked above (warning: the story is in Spanish) includes quotes from Rodney that detail the terms of the agreement.

There has been no further corroboration of this story, even though it was first published on December 29th. Feel free to be skeptical if you will, but my assumption is that this story simply slipped through the cracks over the holidays. I can't imagine there are many people with a hotline to Fernando Rodney, and anyway, he states in the story that the deal wouldn't be announced until January. ESPN Deportes is normally trustworthy on this sort of stuff.

So take it as you will, but I'm choosing to believe this report....although in all honesty, the $2 million price tag for Rodney seems like a stretch. Since the details of the contract are unknown, maybe that includes incentives? Maybe it's contingent on him making the club? I can't imagine it's all guaranteed. We'll have to see.

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Baseball America has just released their 2012 top 10 prospect list for the Rays, and there aren't too many huge surprises on the list. You can find the full article from Baseball America here, but here's a quick side-by-side comparison between this year's list and last year's list:

The players that are in green rose in the rankings from last season, just in case that wasn't obvious. Hak-Ju Lee was rated third in the Cubs' system at the time of last year's rankings, so his impressive 2011 campaign allowed him to rise even higher in the Rays' deeper system. Meanwhile, Chris Archer was rated as the Cubs #1 prospect by B.A. last season, so he's taken a slight tumble after seeing such little improvement in his control.

One of the most interesting parts of this list, though, is Tim Beckham's ranking. Remember how everyone was writing Bex off as dead in the water a few seasons ago? He's since "revived" his career and made it to Triple-A last season, where he had the gall to have a modicum of success (.325 wOBA in 111 plate appearances). He has lots of work to do still, but B.A. is giving him a lot of love this year by ranking him #7 -- up from around #15 last season. I tend to think that many of us are bullish on Beckham compared with the rest of the prospect world, but the Rays Prospects guys had him at #9 on their 2012 list. So maybe it's finally cool to like Beckham again?

But no worries, we have a new first round draft pick "bust" to argue about relentlessly: Josh Sale. He fell off Baseball America's top 10 list after a disastrous 2011 season in which he displayed little power in Rookie League, so I'll be watching his 2012 season a little bit more critically.

Anything else grab you about the list? I have a feeling Enny Romero's ranking is going to be a bit contentious.

Yes, that's right: the Tampa Bay Rays now have their first 30-year-old starting pitcher since Jae Wong Seo started 10 games for the Devil Rays back in 2007. If Shields gets a start for the Rays in 2012, he'll become only the third pitcher 30 years old or older to start a game under Andrew Friedman's tenure. Any guesses on who the third mystery pitcher is?*

In general, Andrew Friedman has eschewed players over 30 years old:

This data is a bit misleading, though, because I counted every player listed on the Rays on their B-Ref team pages, even if that player only received one or two at bats with the Rays that season. In general, most of these 30+ players have either been in the bullpen or bench, although there are a number of notable exceptions: Carlos Pena, Pat Burrell, Jason Bartlett, Julio Lugo, etc.

Another interesting point: the 2011 Rays were a much older team than I would have guessed. I suppose that's what happens when you're forced to bring in cheap veterans to fill holes while your young players develop (see: Damon, Manny, DanJo, Kotch, Farnsworth, and Peralta).

Now that the Rays' younger-than-30 starting pitcher streak is over, let's turn our attention to an even more impressive run. During the course of his tenure running the Rays, Andrew Friedman has never signed a free agent starting pitcher.** Never. Not once. Every single starter that the Rays have used from 2006-2011 has been either homegrown or a prospect acquired in a trade. And considering the depth of young starting pitching that the Rays currently have, I don't see this streak ending anytime soon.

Anyway, all this is meant to say: Happy B'day, Shields! You may be the old fart on the team, but we like you anyway.

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