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News/Opinion

The Implosion of Troy Percival

First of all, I'm not out to convince you that Troy Percival is a bad relief pitcher. It's an unnecessary argument to make, as the assertion is pretty much backed with universal acceptance among Rays fans. This is even more true in the immediate aftermath of an event such as today's, when Percival loaded the bases and surrendered a grand slam in the 13th inning of a crucial intra-divison game against the Toronto Blue Jays.

Still, I don't see myself as immune from the emotional swings of being a baseball fan, so I need an opportunity to vent. At the same time, I want to maintain a relatively level perspective on things. We can all blame the umpires and unleash our anger on them. Sometimes that's even the appropriate course of action to take, and I don't disagree with the premise completely in this case. But the fact of the matter is, the umpires are too easy a target. There are three teams that take the field for every game, and one of those teams has no fans and is constantly pummeled by the other two.

So while we can blame the intricacies of losses on the umpiring crew, doing so offers no sustainable solutions for future improvement. In what has quickly turned into the worst week of the season since the last week of the first half, Troy Percival has pitched in two games and surrendered six runs. Small sample size you say? Well, then ponder these facts:

  • Since May 8th, when Percival surrendered his first runs of the season and notched his first blown save in an eventual win for the Rays at Rogers Centre against the Blue Jays, he has pitched to an ERA of 6.75. That is not a typo, and that is 29.1 innings worth of sample size.
  • Dislike ERA? Well, since I can already hear R.J. screaming about the importance of peripherals, ponder this. Percival has surrendered 24 hits since May 8th. Not a lot right? It's less than one per inning, and 7.36 per nine innings. Yet of those 24 hits, nine have been home runs. Nine. That means that three of every eight Pericval hits surrendered are home runs. To put that into perspective, Andy Sonnanstine has surrendered 193 hits this season. If he were to give up the gopher ball at the rate Percival has in the last 30 innings or so, that would mean that Sonnanstine would have given up 72 home runs. Of course sample size disparities make the comparison tedious, but a 2.76 HR/9 for a closer is just as disastrous as that, on scale, if not moreso due to the consistency of a closer's high-leverage appearances.
  • What's more, Percival has given up four doubles and two triples among those six hits in the past four months. That means that five of every eight hits he gives up go for extra bases. Put it this way, his opponents' slugging percentage in this time frame is .541.
  • Surely Percival must at least mitigate some of this with his high number of strikeouts, right? Well, he does maintain a decent strikeout rate, having downed 26 on strikes in the relevant time frame. Unfortunately, over the same period of time he has walked 18, or 5.52 per nine. A 1.44 K/BB is simply not acceptable, no matter whether high numbers are involved or not.

So what's the point? Well, essentially this is a more eloquent and fact-based way of saying PERCY SUX!11!!111!! I'm not going to get into why Percival has become so poor, because quite frankly I don't know and neither do you. It could be the various injuries that have landed him on the DL this season still bothering him, or it could simply be a function of him breaking down over a long season. But without a reasonable degree of certainity, it's not worth making conjectures about. More importantly though, it doesn't really matter. September 6th is a little late in the season to be diagnosing things and making corrections.

In other words, I'm not exactly optimistic about finding a remedy for the 39 year old Percival's pitching woes in the last three weeks of the season, and there is sure as hell no room for experimentation in the playoffs. The question now concerns what the team can do to mitigate Percival's penchant for high-stakes meltdowns. The most obvious solution is to move him out of the closer's role in favor of someone like Dan Wheeler or Grant Balfour, but that doesn't get rid of the problem entirely. Is his penchant for blowing games any more palatable in the seventh or eighth innings than it is in the ninth, or 13th as the case may be?

I would suggest that the answer is no, and issue at that point becomes where you slot a guy like Percival if you don't want him in high-leverage situations at all. You might be able to get by stashing him in middle relief, but I for one would be very surprised to see the Rays, and manager Joe Maddon in particular, shuffle Percival off into obscurity so unceremoniously. Nor can I imagine Percival taking that too well.

But as the games get more and more crucial, and Percival keeps getting worse and worse, the need for action gets clearer and clearer. As painful as it may be to address the situation, the pain of inaction could potentially be a lot more.

44 comments  |  3 recs |

7/13: News & Notes

CF B.J. Upton rode the bench Saturday night as the Rays dropped their sixth straight. Upton, however, has been in a prolonged slump that might be attributable to a "mechanical flaw" noticed by the Rays coaching staff yesterday. He should be back in the starting lineup today, hopefully with the flaw corrected.

Meanwhile, LF Carl Crawford will most likely see his turn on the bench for this afternoon's series wrap-up game in Cleveland. Crawford has not recorded a hit in his past 25 at bats, the latest disappointing stretch in a poor year.

So what is the cause of Crawford's slump? It surely isn't his mortifyingly undisciplined approach at the plate. No, the cause of his latest struggle is his start in center field on Monday:

Crawford said his problems are physical, the result of making an unexpected, and unwanted, start in centerfield Monday. He said he agitated his left hamstring trying to make a play on a ball over his head, and it has made him uncomfortable at the plate since, unable to set up properly or get any drive off his back leg.

I can respect the possibility that a physical injury might hamper his performance at the plate. That is entirely realistic. When you don't have a strong footing at the plate, you cannot gain the leverage necessary to handle the bat with strength.

However Crawford's continual harping on having to make one start in center field is obnoxious. It is yet another instance of a player who refuses to take responsibility for his own failings. What Crawford is describing is an injury incidental to the game of baseball; making over-the-shoulder catches is not a phenomenon exclusive to the position of center field. I find his excuses especially hollow since he already plays an outfield position.

Is there an adjustment necessary to move from left field to center? Yes. Is it insurmountable? Absolutely not, especially for someone who isn't even 27 years of age. I find it impossible to believe that Crawford, a player who takes the field upwards of 160 times a year, cannot transition to center field hastily without being crippled in the effort.

Could Joe Maddon have handled this better? Perhaps. Without knowing the specifics of the situation, I don't want to indict him. All I do know is that Crawford has an obligation to do what's best for the team, under any and all circumstances. If that means moving over less than 100 feet for one day, then so be it. Be a martyr. But don't be making excuses to the media five days later about how the subsequent slump isn't your fault because of it.

I wish Carl Crawford the best in his recovery. I really do. I don't doubt that he hurt himself, but I do hope that whatever pain he is in subsides for what hopefully will be a tremendous second half. But he needs to stop shirking accountability and start taking responsibility for his own lackluster play. He has been terrible all season long at the plate, and his embarrassing lack of patience is an abortion to watch.

Elsewhere:

  • Maddon does not agree with Scott Kazmir's assertion that the team's struggles can be tied to too much scoreboard-watching.
  • RHP Troy Percival threw a successful 26 pitch mound session, his first since going on the DL. The best case scenario he laid out has him returning as soon as next Saturday, although given the results following his last DL stint, the team may opt to wait a little while longer.

13 comments  |  0 recs

7/12: News & Notes

Why have the Rays lost five straight heading into today?

There were several theories in the clubhouse, starting with manager Joe Maddon saying the Rays were mentally fatigued, that they had "been playing really hard, and with a lot of emotion, for a long time," and the All-Star break was coming "at the right time."

Starter James Shields said they were physically tired, "pretty much spent" from playing so many tough teams.

Leftfielder Carl Crawford attributed it to bad timing, saying it's "rare to have a whole offense really struggling at the same time."

All are possible explanations. What say you, Scott Kazmir?

"We've got to worry about ourselves and concentrate on what's going on in front of us," Kaz­mir said before Friday's game. "You see guys coming in right from playing on defense and they're like, 'What's the Boston score? What's the Boston score?' That's not how you're supposed to do it."

Kazmir goes on to basically emphasize the point; that the team's poor efforts have resulted from a sense of complacency about their standing and a lack of focus on the task at hand.

Though what Kazmir says may be true, I'm a bit leery to assign any one factor all of the blame for the Rays' ineptitude over the last several days. In any case, the All-Star break can't get here soon enough. Hopefully we can salvage a split of the series, or at least a split of the next two games.

Elsewhere:

  • SS Jason Bartlett might not be ready to return when eligible to come off the DL next Friday. If he is not activated on that date, he should be within a couple days thereafter.
  • RHP Al Reyes saw his fastball velocity sit in the high 80s in a rehab outing on Thursday for Vero Beach. He will throw on Sunday and Monday for the V-Rays, and could be activated after that.
  • RHP Troy Percival will throw off of a mound today for the first time since going on the DL.

31 comments  |  0 recs

Brignac Era Starts Early as Bartlett Hits DL

The Mitch Talbot era in St. Petersburg turned out to be a short one, as he was demoted back to Triple A Durham before even throwing a pitch as the Rays made a flurry of off-day roster moves. SS Jason Bartlett has been placed on the 15 Day DL due to a right knee sprain that he suffered in yesterday's win over Boston. Since he was the only shortstop on the roster, the Rays called up not one, but two players to take his place. Ben Zobrist begins a third tour of duty with the team, while more intriguingly, top prospect Reid Brignac gets the call.

More on this move a bit later on, but I can't possibly seeing anyone but Brignac getting the bulk of the playing time at shortstop in Bartlett's place. Lou Piniella doesn't manage this team anymore, so unlike B.J. Upton's poorly-handled debut in 2004, I imagine the Rays will set out with a plan to see Brignac get regular playing time. Zobrist is their middle infield insurance policy, and quite frankly I wouldn't be surprised to see him stick, given the tumult that an injury to Bartlett has provoked. I'm sort of disappointed to see that Talbot won't get an extended opportunity to prove himself at the major league level, but I guess the need for roster flexibility on the infield was the paramount concern.

56 comments  |  0 recs

Stadium plans and location issues

The stadium news coming down today seems to be the logical course of action. This has seemed rushed from the beginning, trying to go from intial plans and presentation to having everything basically finalized within a year. That's a pretty short time considering the various approvals needed to go forward with it and the brief timeframe plays into the hands of groups like POWW using fear-mongering tactics to sway people to their side while presenting little in the way of actual facts. I'm also pleased on a personal level because this means that the heated stadium discussions will probably die down soon and this will cease to be a distraction to the great year the team on the field is having. It would be great to just enjoy the success the organization is finally having and not have anything else going on but instead we have this non-baseball stuff demanding lots of news time as well.

What I mainly wanted to bring up today though was the seemingly widespread perception (at least among Tampa residents) that having the stadium on that side of the bay would greatly increase attendance and that the stadium's current location is the reason the turnout is disappointing to some people (it isn't to me but that's a separate issue altogether). This is, in my opinion, bunk.

Continue reading this post »

29 comments  |  2 recs

6/15: News & Notes

BALDELLI ASSIGNED TO HIGH A FOR REHAB ASSIGNMENT:

OF Rocco Baldelli, having rehabbed for three months and played in a smattering of Extended Spring Training games, reached the next step in his comeback bid by being assigned to High A Vero Beach for a rehab assignment beginning Monday. Baldelli, the victim of a rare mitochondrial disorder that causes muscle fatigue, will be the Designated Hitter in Vero Beach's scheduled games on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday.

Baldelli had reported no problems with muscle fatigue DH'ing in every other Extended Spring Training game, though Executive Vice President Andrew Friedman asserted that the move was more of a necessity than a great advancement in his recovery.

"It's just an ongoing part of the process. I wouldn't say that at this point there have been any great revelations, but the important thing is, right now he feels good, so we're going to be smart about this thing."

With Extended Spring Training over, the Rays needed to do something with Baldelli to keep him on the field, and that beget the rehab assignment to Vero Beach. The Rays will run into problems, however, with a provision in the Collective Bargaining Agreement that limits the amount of days a player may spend on a rehab assignment in the minor leagues to 20. Marc Lancaster of the Tampa Tribune speculates that the Rays may pull Baldelli off of the rehab assignment at some point to buy time and put him back on at a later date. It is unlikely that he will be ready to complete his rehabilitation after just 20 days.

"It's our sense that if, by chance, we need more time - which at this point we have no idea whether we will or won't - that there will be ways to figure it out within the rules," Friedman said.

PEÑA RECOVERY:

Meanwhile, in other injury news, 1B Carlos Peña is recovering from a broken left index finger that he suffered a week and a half ago. Manager Joe Maddon said that Peña is close to returning, and the first baseman himself insists that he will be ready when eligible to come off the DL on the 19th. That doesn't square with an earlier prognostication by Maddon, so we'll see what comes of that. 

More "News & Notes" follow the jump

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Mayor Baker Recommends Archstone-Madison for Trop Redevelopment

St. Petersburg Mayor Rick Baker has recommended that the City Council choose Archstone-Madison's proposal to redevelop the Tropicana Field site should the team's plan to vacate the site for a new $450 million waterfront stadium come to fruition. The plan's financing is reliant on the successful purchase and development of the stadium land, and Baker recommended that the city move forward with the highest-density plan.

While the City Council must ratify the Mayor's suggestion at a meeting next week, it is widely presumed that the ratification is a mere formality. The Rays' plan had originally been sprung in concert with a competing developer's proposal, but the team says they look forward to working with Hines as the process moves forward.

Archstone-Madison's $1.2 billion proposal is slated to be the largest single development in the city's history, and if the plan goes through in full, it will give Pinellas County the retail equivalent of International Plaza in Tampa. The plan also includes gratuitous amounts of condo and apartment units, as well as office space and hotel rooms. Archstone-Madison had offered $65 million for the Tropicana site, about $5 million more than had competing developer Hines.

If development proceeds, ground should be broken on the project in 2010. The land will not be developed in full until about 2023. Aaron Sharockman of the St. Petersburg Times, who covered the decision as it unfolded yesterday, posted an excellent breakdown of what the competing developers had in mind for the site on his Ballpark Frankness blog yesterday.

The next step in the process, after the presumed City Council rubber stamp next week, will be neogtiations for the final development agreement. The city would like to come to a deal on that by August 1st.

Though Archstone-Madison had the higher bid of $65 million for the land, the offer is still about $5 million below the total it would take to pay off the debt completely on Tropicana Field. The Rays were relying on $70 million from the buyer to pay that portion of the deal off. It remains unclear how the team will account for the missing $5 million.

Also, while Archstone-Madison pledges to put forth $5 million to demolish Tropicana Field, it will not pay for any environmental mitigation required on the site. Further, it will not guarantee the tax revenues to be garnered from the redevelopment project, tax revenues that are crucial to the team's financing plan. The proposal is projected to generate $7.5 million a year in taxes for the City of St. Petersburg when fully completed, but in a city fresh off the failed developmental bungle known as Bay Plaza in the 1990s, the lack of guaranteed revenue is concerning.

TIMES PARKING SURVEY:

The St. Petersburg Times dispatched three reporters to walk three different routes to the proposed Al Lang Stadium site from three parking hubs suggested by the Rays. The Times then had those reporters chronicle the journey along the route. It made for an interesting read; more than anything else it showcased downtown stores and restaurants. Be sure to check out the web special on the story if it so interests you. +1 for any reader that notices how a liquor store was mentioned as a place that Rays fans might enjoy.

3 comments  |  0 recs

Follow-up on contention

During the previous homestand I made an entry about my views on the Rays as contenders. My conclusion was that if they continued to play well on that homestand (which they certainly did, going 8-2 overall) and had a decent road trip in three tough places to go then I'd let all my reservations go. They went 3-6 on that road trip including another sweep in Boston, falling short of my stated goal of 4-5. With their good performance in Texas and maybe only losing the finale in Anaheim because of abysmally incompetent umpiring at a crucial time in the game I felt a little better about the rest of the season but I feel that they haven't completely gotten over the hump yet because of one potentially damaging weakness.

That weakness is 3/5 of the rotation. Kazmir and Shields are fine, if they're healthy nobody should worry about them at all. In fact they're a great 1-2 punch to throw at teams (personally I couldn't care less about Shields' road performance this year, HFA has been somewhat out of whack so far anyway and he was fine on the road in 2007, there's nothing to worry about in my eyes). The problem is with the other guys.

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