Powder Kegs, Bobble Heads, and Radio Sets

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 13, 2007 11:14 AM EDT Comment 25 comments

Armchair GM had a report recently that a source indicates the Rays possess "strong interest" in free agent catcher to be Jorge Posada. Although I can't confirm nor deny that there is potential interest, the likelihood in a signing acquiring is less likely than Napoleon Bonaparte coming stateside in 2012.

Posada would likely demand 10-15 million and for a soon to be 36 year old catcher coming off his career year I can't see the move turning out well. Over than Posada's likely breakdown you have to remember about that one guy, Dioner Navarro, he closed the season out with quite a second half; .285/.340/.475, 8 homeruns, 31 runs batted in, that in 179 at-bats. Let's not forget about Carlos Pena's 2005 second half, he'd hit .286/.345/.662 with 15 homeruns, and 30 RBIs in 133 at-bats, he'd be exiled from Detroit and the rest is history.

There's no other way to say it, but Navarro's a powder keg, and he's extremely close to exploding.

Speaking of rumors, cue Leo Mazzone to Tampa, it makes sense; Mazzone had success with a similar set of players (Glavine - Kazmir, Maddux - Sonnanstine, ect.), he also isn't afraid of a challenge, and his best friend is out of a managing job so why wouldn't he come to Tampa and become a pseudo-deity, in some ways it'd be like Lou Piniella coming home, only you'd hope this move would turn out a lot better. Perhaps this is why the Rays have been mum on the Jim Hickey situation?

One more name to add to the "to Rays" rumor mill, Keith Foulke is attempting a comeback, the Rays were supposedly interested in him last off-season.

Finally wanted to give a shout out to a good friend of DRB, folks if you have a radio around you tune in to 1010 AM from 2-3 and 6-7, Bobby Fenton is a huge part of the present and future of Tampa sports radio, although as soon as Fenton's first show ends you may want to flip the tune; I respect Mike and the Mad Dog, but no chance in hell I'm listening to them in a Tampa market.

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Re: Powder Kegs, Bobble Heads, and Radio Sets

As good as Posada is right now, the age-related risk is too great. I think Navarro deserves a chance to complete his recovery.

by Orlando Rays on Oct 13, 2007 12:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Powder Kegs, Bobble Heads, and Radio Sets

New to site, like the info available.

Posada seems a bit extreme as a signing, I would prefer Damian Miller or another defensive veteran who can help Navarro call games and improve his defense. And maybe catch a couple days a week.

There aren't 23 year olds that can call games, excel on D and hit over a full season.

And please get rid of Hickey and bring in Mazzone. Problem may be money, he would want more than the manager...

by coachemup on Oct 13, 2007 1:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Welcome to the site, coachemup

Glad that you've decided to join our little outpost.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Oct 13, 2007 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Powder Kegs, Bobble Heads, and Radio Sets

I guess I am in the minority here but I want Posada...bad! We bring in a top flight free agent catcher and all of a sudden our lineup is downright nasty. Maybe Kazmir signs a long term deal at that point. The commitment to winning NOW would really make a statement. It wouldn't kill Navi to learn from a guy like Posada for a couple of years. Powder keg? I guess Navi's kinda built like a keg but that's where the similarities end. I don't think he is as bad as he played in the first half, but I don't think his ceiling is all that high either. Imagine adding a healthy Baldelli (I know I know) and a Posada to our everyday lineup. Wow...

Coachemup, welcome to the site!

by stpetelawyer on Oct 13, 2007 10:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I thought you were serious

Then you said healthy Baldelli.

It depends on the contract, if nothing else Posada could take some ABs at DH as could Navarro, I'd rather not give Posada a Ivan Rodriguez like deal, 2/26? I think he'd want 3/39 with an option for the fourth.

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 13, 2007 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: I thought you were serious

I regretted typing that as soon as I hit "post." If you ignore that absurd comment about Rocco, the post still works. We all have to get used to the idea that we are going to have to overpay for a free agent or two. Given the choice of playing here or just about anywhere else, a good player will go elsewhere. The beauty of it is, unlike the Hit Show years, we don't really have many holes at all. A couple of free agents could really make a difference. I'd pay Posada 3/39 with a CLUB option for the 4th.

by stpetelawyer on Oct 14, 2007 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Powder Kegs, Bobble Heads, and Radio Sets

So Jamie Shields = Johm Smoltz then? I'd take that!

But if we're going to overpay for one of the Yankee free agents (and not that potential DH who is the all-time home run leader), why not use tha $10-15M on ol' #42 instead? I mean, by all means if the two are willing to come to Tampa as part of a Kariya/Selanne type package deal, go ahead and do it, but if the choice is between one of the two then IMHO the potential for most improvement is definitely by improving the back end of the bullpen.

by das411 on Oct 14, 2007 1:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hooray for nearly obscure hockey reference

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 14, 2007 2:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Powder Kegs, Bobble Heads, and Radio Sets

Posada is a terrific catcher. As he began catching regularly late, he is probably not as worn down as other 36 year old catchers. He brings experience and fire to any team as well as adequate defensive skills and a borderline HOF bat. He will be 37 next August.

The Rays' timeline seems to be expecting to improve next year, competing for a playoff in 2009 and becoming a power in 2010. On a three year contract, after a year in which Posada outhit his career average by 61 points and topped his career bests in OBP, Slugging and Doubles, Jorge will turn 38 when the Rays expect to compete.

Is it smart to invest so much in an old catcher? And is catcher at the top of the priority list? Isn't it likely that, barring injury and being optimistic, Posada will hit in the .260-.270 range with a .370 or so OPB and with 15-20 home runs average in the next three years and demonstrate a barely average arm and defense behind the plate? If so, I think we have internal options who can get close to that.

If the Rays have to spend $12 million per over 3 years or so, might not Francisco Cordero be a better risk or perhaps a starter acquired in trade?

by bobr on Oct 14, 2007 9:19 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The most important priority for the Rays

is Scott Kazmir. This is the guy we need to lock up more than any free agent. He has indicated that he is not interested in being a Ray if we are not going to improve our team in the offseason. If I were a pitcher, I can't think of anything that would make me happier than the signing of a big time, free agent catcher. If landing Posada lands us Kazmir, then that should be our top priority.

by stpetelawyer on Oct 14, 2007 11:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: The most important priority for the Rays

Litigious One,

The writing is on the wall. Scott wouldn't have said what he did if he didn't already know the team's plans and intentions. DJ Magic Andrew and his Spin Doctoring have already fizzled out the lust for this offseason. Maybe DJ Stubing Stu can spin his own lyrical rhyme and bust a move on some other larcenous lesson on the good fans of this market.

Joe

by joedobr on Oct 14, 2007 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: The most important priority for the Rays

There is no reason to think Kazmir is dissatisfied with Navarro. Naturally he wants to play for a competitive team, but the Rays can do a lot of more productive things than signing an aging catcher to demonstrate their commitment to winning. It is not a question of signing Posada or not but of opportunity cost. If we do not sign Posada, what else can we do to hasten our move to serious contention? If we do sign him, what avenues does that close?

I also see no particular reason to pursue Mazzone, although I have no objection to him either. The Maddux analogy is inapt as Greg was a Cy Young winner before joining the Braves. I have read at least one article that credited Mazzone with being instrumental in improving pitcher performance; but by and large, his successes seem to have come with veterans (Neagle, Wright, Bieliecki, Burkett, Russ Ortiz) who blossom for a year or two under him. He also had a knack for building bullpens with no-names (Lightenberg, McGlinchy, McMichael) and journeymen (Remlinger, Hammond).

That is certainly valuable, but unless the Rays are planning to sign Colon or Lohse or someone like that, that is not the staff he would have. And his record with young prospects is much more spotty. Among the many Braves' hot prospects, (Pete Smith, Lilliquist, Clary, Schmidt, Terrell Wade, Chen, Odalis Perez, Bowie, Marquis, Damian Moss) none thrived under him while a few did do well elsewhere. I can think of only two who had stellar performances in Atlanta (Avery, Millwood), and Avery was through by age 25 while Millwood had two terrific years bracketing 2 distinctly mediocre ones.

Again, the Rays have more urgent matters than signing Mazzone in my view.

by bobr on Oct 14, 2007 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What about guys like

Jorge Sosa and Juan Cruz, two guys who had their best years under Mazzone and both had pretty good stuff, similar to E-Jax. It's hard to blame guys like Moss busting to Mazzone, it's possible they just suck.

I think Kaz would rather have Cordero than Posada.

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 14, 2007 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: What about guys like

Yes, they are two more good examples of pitchers thriving under him. Again, I do not deny that he is a talented pitching coach. There is considerable evidence that he helps some pitchers. But I do not think he is either a priority for the Rays or necessarily a wonder-worker. Sometimes a coach, like a manager, falls into exactly the right position and his reputation is made. If anything, I think the Rays are not exactly tailor made for Mazzone's style. If he comes here, fine, but I don't think it worth thinking about too much.

As for wanting Posada, I agree an elite closer would be more appealing to Kazmir. In any case, the key is to show progress toward contending, not signing big names just to prove a point. I do not think Posada represents the optimum effort to build a contender given the Rays' current position.

by bobr on Oct 14, 2007 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Posada, Cordero, Rivera, Mazzone...why not...

That 3B in NY that we can convert back to SS?

Plus, he excels in low pressure situations, so the Rays would be a perfect fit.

by TallMatt on Oct 15, 2007 12:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Wouldn't mind it.

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 15, 2007 9:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Powder Kegs, Bobble Heads, and Radio Sets

Do you know how many more people would go to the games if the Rays signed A-rod? Look at the buzz Boston created by signing Kevin Garnett? There has not been this much talk about the celtics in october since the late 80's.

If the Rays signed A rod I garentee ATLEAST 10,000 more per game in attendance. I am not a number guy so if someone wants to run the numbers on that then be my guest.

by Elgrandeplatano on Oct 15, 2007 9:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure how you could figure those numbers

Although I'm sure Scott Boras would agree with you, and I'd have to believe that yes it would provide quite a boost in sales.

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 15, 2007 9:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not even remotely close to the same thing

Star power simply doesn't drive attendance in baseball like it does in basketball. The NBA is an emporium of self-agrandizement, and it markets itself based off of the selfish individual personalities that make up the 'star level' players. As such, that is where they get a lot of their support from. The NBA is by far the most individualistic major sport in the United States. Loyalties align more with players than in any other sport, and star appeal can drive a team's bottom line.

The only player that can do that in baseball is Barry Bonds, or any other hypothetical player that is in a chase after a hallowed record. Simply put, Bonds is an abnormality; a legend if you will. He has put up the most amazing six year run in the history of the sport, and has single-handidly driven his home team for that period.

A-Rod is the best player in baseball right now, IMO, but he isn't at the point in his career where he is chasing records or setting single season records. He doesn't nearly have the draw appeal of Bonds. What would attract fans to the Rays wouldn't be A-Rod, but rather the additional wins that the team could garner by acquiring him. But for all except that one example, baseball is a sport in which individual personalities do not drive attendance.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Oct 16, 2007 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not so sure

He's not approaching records yet, but being the best player in the game would add on to jersey sales and likely ticket sales, at least for the short run.

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 16, 2007 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not in any subsequential amount

Looking at the attendance totals for last season, I'd guess with A-Rod we'd still be among the bottom five teams assuming that our W-L record doesn't improve consequentially. Now, obviously you'd acquire A-Rod to help your wins total rise. From a baseball operations standpoint there is no way not to like the potential move, but I don't think that you acquire him by himself just for "star power".

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Oct 16, 2007 10:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Of course not

But most times (not always) star power = added wins.

by R.J. Anderson on Oct 16, 2007 10:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And I'm not disputing that

But the implication in his statement was that merely the presence of A-Rod as an individual guarantees a large attendance spike.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Oct 19, 2007 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Not in any subsequential amount

I don't want to base star power off any other team in the past. The Rays biggest acquisition before now was trading for a coach. If the Rays actually went out and spent 30 million or w/e it would take to sign arod, I would bet a months pay that attendance would be up even if there win total stayed the same. Ticket sales would be so high over the first month of the seaon no matter how bad they were playing.

10,000 a game was a ridiculous number to throw out, but it would def be 10,000 over the first month.

by Elgrandeplatano on Oct 17, 2007 2:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Attendance would go up, sure

But I doubt it would be consequential enough to justify the move specifically for the reason of raising attendance. If the win total rises up enough with A-Rod the move's impact will be greater.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Oct 19, 2007 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs