Lidge to Tampa?
by R.J. Anderson
on Apr 10, 2007 3:45 PM EDT
23 comments
There are some rumors flying around the ESPN radio airwaves that Tampa Bay is talking to the Houston Astros about acquiring former closer Brad Lidge. I haven't been able to confirm that such talks are actually taking place, but given that nothing has went down with Jose Capellan it's possible that one deal is contigent on another and for the Rays it's a waiting game.
Lidge, 30, has had his issues in his two appearances, giving up five hits, three walks, and six runs, though only three were earned, while only striking out one. In 2006 he posted a career worse ERA of 5.29 though he did save 32 games. In the three previous seasons Lidge had been excellent, posting ERAs and save totals of 1 and 3.60, 29 and 1.90, and in 2004 42 and 2.29.
Certainly Lidge would become one of the two top relievers on the team, alongside Al Reyes, whom in the perfect world could slot back into his traditional set-up man role and push Brian Stokes into the 7th inning, forming roles in a somewhat simliar style to that of the Houston teams Lidge played on, pitching the 7th while Octavio Dotel managed the 8th, and Billy Wagner shut things down in the 9th.
It would also likely mean the end for either Shawn Camp or Ruddy Lugo, one would have to believe that Camp would be the one booted, due to his age and that he's allowed all four of his inherited baserunners to score this season while showing little promise of coming back to respectablility.
If the Rays were to acquire Lidge it isn't expected to take too much (perhaps Joel Guzman?) and it would reunite the Californian with former General Manager and Rays advisor Gerry Hunsicker, who was in command when Lidge had his best seasons, and former pitching coach Jim Hickey, whether Hickey could fix Lidge's mechanics or not, along with the five million dollar salary of Lidges' are the chances the new Rays' front office will be taking if they so choose to pull the trigger with Houston for the second time in as many years.
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Re: Lidge to Tampa?
Then again, it's not as if we're going great guns in the bullpen ourselves, so it could hardly hurt. And I really don't see any reason not to pursue both Lidge and Capellan, frankly. Our starters haven't been great, but they've deserved better than the bullpen has given them.
Guzman as trade bait...to me, that would hurt, but on the flip side it might just be that there's no room for him in our infield of the future. Might as well get something for him? I don't know, but it is a thought.
Are Ryu sure about Stokes as the seventh-inning guy? He's not been much more impressive than Clumpo so far, and Jay Cook You has looked better (in admittedly limited appearances). And where the hella is Orvella?
by Not That Chuck on
Apr 10, 2007 5:06 PM EDT
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Re: Lidge to Tampa?
by R.J. Anderson on
Apr 10, 2007 5:18 PM EDT
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And...
by Not That Chuck on
Apr 10, 2007 9:19 PM EDT
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Re: And...
by R.J. Anderson on
Apr 10, 2007 9:59 PM EDT
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Re: Lidge to Tampa?
by nyyfaninlaaland on
Apr 11, 2007 5:16 AM EDT
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Re: Lidge to Tampa?
by Top Gun Numba 1 on
Apr 10, 2007 5:55 PM EDT
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by R.J. Anderson on
Apr 10, 2007 5:59 PM EDT
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by JWallace on
Apr 10, 2007 6:57 PM EDT
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by R.J. Anderson on
Apr 10, 2007 6:58 PM EDT
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Re: Lidge to Tampa?
Plus at some point you have to take a chance and deal guys like Guzman or Cantu or Bankston. It's bad enough Jonny Gomes is sitting on the bench.
Is this the right deal? I don't know and can only hope Hickey, Friedman and Hunsicker have done their homework because Lidge certainly has struggled ever since the Pujols blast in the NLCS.
by RATW on
Apr 10, 2007 8:12 PM EDT
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Re: Lidge to Tampa?
by R.J. Anderson on
Apr 10, 2007 8:35 PM EDT
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Re: Lidge to Tampa?
- The Rays are not contenders this year. Yes, it can do psychological damage to keep losing late, but I do not think that damage should be over-emphasized
- For a team not in the race, the bullpen is the last concern-the last area to be upgraded.
- For those 2 reasons alone, I would not sacrifice talent, even second level talent to acquire relievers, especially those with question marks themselves.
- Relievers, with a few obvious exceptions, are both fungible and unpredictable. Overspending on them or sacrificing talent to acquire them is bad strategy. (See the Reds for a case in point.)
- Ironically, an apparently contradictory point is also true. That is that bullpens are generally the easiest area to improve. The scene is littered with potential relievers-failed starters, career relievers, flawed but promising prospects-and the main trick is to sort through them until the right, or lucky, arm is identified.
by bobr on
Apr 10, 2007 8:29 PM EDT
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Re: Lidge to Tampa?
by R.J. Anderson on
Apr 10, 2007 8:39 PM EDT
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Re: Lidge to Tampa?
And if a pen is the easiest thing to improve, isn't a long term issue (or fungible as you put it), and probably the cheapest quick fix area, why are you not all pissed that you've been stuck with what you've got now? As I've pointed out here before, if you had a more effective pen and held 20 of the 61 blown leads last year, you would have been a .500 club. Ask Theo Epstein or any RedSox fan how easy it is to cobble together a bullpen. They spent $11 mil on theirs behind Papelbon for '07, and I don't know that they think it's good enough. Nice theory - but just not the usual fact.
I know RJ used Minnesota as the model, but you simply don't have those pitchers. Behind Nathan, one of the best closers in baseball, they have Rincon, Crain, Neshek, Reyes, and Guerrier. None are 30 yet - Reyes, who's closest and has the most variable career, got to the majors at age 18. Of the rest, none has a majors season of over 30 IP with an ERA over 4. For the Rays, Salas, yet to establish himself, is only 6 months younger than Reyes, 3 months less than Guerrier. He's a prospect? Only Stokes, Lugo and Ryu are younger than their guys, and Stokes & Lugo are older than Crain and Neshek. None of your guys have a consistent or established track record (Lugo might compare to Neshek somewhat)- even Reyes has only pitched over 40 innings in a season 3 times in 12 years, and once since 1999.
I expect Camp and Lugo will improve over this early bad stretch - I'm a believer in performance evening out over time. I also expect Glover, Stokes and Ryu have some hard times ahead - Glover since he's had them in his past, Stokes & Ryu since they have little past to draw from. The fact is Guzman isn't enough to pry Lidge from the Astros because they don't really need him - they need major league ready pitching since they still view themselves as playoff contenders. That's a commodity which you shouldn't part with right now - whoever you view as fitting the description. But stranger things have happened, so I guess we'll see. Milwaukee might take an OF for Capellan, but is that a good deal for you? And Kim could come cheap, but he's just another of the long relief, back end starter types you've got plenty of. They're not just gonna take whatever you offer - trades are a 2-way street.
As they say, you gotta give something to get something. Or just wait & hope for your guys to get better...
by nyyfaninlaaland on
Apr 11, 2007 7:07 AM EDT
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Re: Lidge to Tampa?
1. I know of no analyst who does not think the Reds' trade was incredibly stupid. As a matter of fact, after the trade, the Reds fell out of contention. It may have been coincidence rather than cause and effect, but the trade certainly did not cement their hold on the lead. And the fact that some are now injured is exactly the point about relievers; they are simply far too unreliable, at least partially because they are often so injury prone, to waste talent on acquiring them.
The comment on the Nats' last place finish is not relevant. They made the trade to acquire talent for their system, not to surge into contention in 2006. It is much like noting that the Rays' trade with Houston (Huff for Zobrist and Talbot) did not help TB because they still finished last while Houston contended.
2. As you say, Boston is still unsure about their pen after spending multi-millions. It makes some sense for them as they are in the race. But for the Rays, it is foolish to take such risks now. On another site, I posted a brief survey of the Braves' and Angels' bullpens of recent years. What you discover is that they are usually built from retreads, waiver wire pickups, independent league refugees and home grown talent. In fact, when the Braves did trade for a name (Kolb), it was a mistake.
Again, it is not a hard and fast rule. I think the Soriano deal, for example, was excellent (although I do not consider Ramirez a great sacrifice), but Soriano was successful at the time of the trade, while players like Lidge, Kim and Capellan are available precisely because they are not doing the job now. It is a bad risk to trade talent for such relievers. Better to keep sorting through cheaper alternatives (not just in terms of money, but in terms of availability) until you discover the right arms.
3. I tend to agree with your comments on the Rays' pen, although I think you shortchange Salas. He is older than many realize, but he is new as a pitcher. In any case, I am not ready after 7 games to judge the level of talent in the bullpen, either positively or negatively. I simply want to reiterate that relievers are notoriously unreliable, from year to year and even within seasons. It is a constant challenge to build bullpens, but a team that is not going to contend immediately should not waste resources on it. Rather, it should keep sorting through the available pitchers on hand and floating around. I believe Maddon has been credited with a large role in assembling the effective Angels' bullpen, and I think he is trying to do the same thing here.
by bobr on
Apr 11, 2007 7:54 AM EDT
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Salas
by R.J. Anderson on
Apr 11, 2007 4:05 PM EDT
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Re: Lidge to Tampa?
Trade Guzman for him? NO WAY!
by das411 on
Apr 11, 2007 2:25 AM EDT
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well,
i too, like guzman,
but if it didn't cost much and we had the chance, why not?
it would definitely keep the team happier,
and that would mean a lot considering the core players on the team right now.
by god allah star on
Apr 11, 2007 4:48 AM EDT
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Re: Lidge to Tampa?
by RayFanNY on
Apr 11, 2007 6:40 AM EDT
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Re: Lidge to Tampa?
by nyyfaninlaaland on
Apr 11, 2007 7:14 AM EDT
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Re: Lidge to Tampa?
Shoot, Reyes looks 10x better than Ridge did all of last season. How about a few mil to tempt Reyes to stay longer than 1 year? He seems more valuable to me than Lidge.
Heck the Yankees got Kei Igawa to sign for $4 mil per year (yeah, I know I am not adding in the negotiation fee). I'd take him any day over Seo or Fossum.
How about Octavio Dotel? He's signed for $5 mil. Remember when we didn't bother to pursue him at all, and the Royals did? I'd take him over Lidge.
by RayFanNY on
Apr 12, 2007 2:39 AM EDT
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Dotel also ended up injured
I would have liked to sign David Riske, but there was really nothing besides him on the market this past offseason that presented an obvious answer for the Devil Rays. I wouldn't mind investing in a contract extension for Kazmir, but I don't think that he has been exactly neglected by management anyways. I think that he is the top priority as far as contract extensions go.
As for Al Reyes, no. I don't want to invest several million dollars in a relief pitcher, albeit an effective one thus far, that is in his early 30s. Let's not trap ourselves into a Dan Miceli contract by giving money to a player who could implode at any time. Let's wait to see, first of all, if Reyes can keep it up and secondly, if he can stay injury-free, and then you consider bringing him back on a year to year basis. But Al Reyes at this point in his career is nothing more than a one or two year option.
I'd rather have Kei Igawa in my rotation than Fossum or Seo, but taking costs and development into account, I'd rather have Hammel or Howell in the rotation than Igawa, Seo, or Fossum. Besides, I'm not exactly convinced of the potential for success of Igawa. I liked him this offseason, but he hasn't looked good so far.
by Patrick L. Kennedy on
Apr 12, 2007 8:47 AM EDT
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Re: Lidge to Tampa?
Comparing Reyes to a guy who has over 100 more saves in the 3 prior seasons than Reyes does in his entire 12 year career is just a bit optimistic. Lidge is being way undervalued here - Houston isn't going to just give him away. The Rays are looking to fill 3 rotation slots (Kaz and Shields look like keepers), and have more than that many decent pitching prospects to fill in, given that 2 of those slots will be 3-5. But Houston isn't going to take Howell, or Hammell, or Guzman, or hardly anyone else straight up for Lidge. Other teams will make better offers - Boston, Cleveland, Florida, Cincy, Philly, the D'Backs, and the Dodgers could all show interest. Big market means big price.
Frankly this is a deal I think the Rays should get aggressive on. Move some prospect surplus, try for a guy who's still young, under control through '08 (he's got 1 more year of arb eligiblity left), has a great arm, and demonstrated success despite his recent struggles. 3 years of 70+ IP with ERA of 3.60, 1.90, 2.29, then last year's struggle. Where he struck out 104 in 75 IP. I know I'm swimming upstream here cause you all love your prospects so, but I'd give Guzman (no long term spot in Tampa), Hammell or Howell (4 and 5 on the AAA depth chart), AND 1 of the A starters if that's what it took. You're not gonna need all those guys, and maybe none of them.
by nyyfaninlaaland on
Apr 12, 2007 6:44 PM EDT
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