So uh...That's it?

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 31, 2007 6:24 PM EDT

The deadline has came and gone without any moves, and you know, that's not such a bad thing. It's apparent the team didn't feel we were getting any value in trading Al Reyes, so we held on to him, fair enough, we now have a bullpen set for this and next year, but how good is it compared to what we had before? Well that's what we're looking at now.

Using the Pitcher VORP estimation formula, a la: (6.50- Run Average) x (IP/9) let's judge our top four pitchers from the first half of this season to what we have now, with a few variations, namely Al Reyes isn't an indication of the top four relief pitchers, he will be represented on both, but not in judging which is better, and Juan Salas will count for the second half.

First Half: Brian Stokes, Casey Fossum, Shawn Camp, Gary Glover
Second Half: Scott Dohmann, Grant Balfour, Juan Salas, Dan Wheeler

Reyes: 6.5 - 4.8 RA x 39/9 = 7.4 VORP
Stokes: 6.5 - 7.9 RA x 49/9 = -7.6 VORP
Fossum(RP only): 6.5 - 7.4 RA x 22/9 = -2.2 VORP
Camp: 6.5 - 7.4 RA x 40/9 = -4 VORP
Glover:6.5 - 5.3 RA x 54/9 = 7.2 VORP
Total = 0.8 VORP

Reyes: 6.5 - 4.8 RA x 39/9 = 7.4 VORP
Balfour (as Ray): 6.5 - 6 RA x 3/9 = .2 VORP
Dohmann: 6.5 - 5.1 RA x 7/9 = 1.0 VORP
Wheeler: 6.5 - 4.9 RA x 51/9 = 9.1 VORP
Salas: 6.5 - 5.6 RA x 16/9 = 1.6 VORP
Total = 19.3 VORP

Net Gain: 18.5 VORP

I believe Value Over Replacement Player estimates that for every 10 `runs gained prevented' you can add a `win'. So in the Rays case they have basically added two victories just by changing bullpens.

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Re: So uh...That's it?

If I were Andy & Co., I'd immediately send Stokes through waivers(DFA, to open up his roster spot) in hopes that someone would take the bait and take him off our hands.

Who would we put in the 'pen to replace him?

Right now, I'd take a chance and give AA reliever Dale Thayer a shot. He's a gamer, who is 2nd on the Biscuits with 9 wins(as a reliever) and has a nice K/BB ratio to go along with a nice ERA and WHIP.

If not, I'd give Medlock a 2-3 week tryout in Durham and see if he can rekindle his AA form. If he can, bring him up.

For a team who was a horrible mix of bad relievers, we're hopefully starting to figure things out(through 2 games, though).

by Jacob Larsen on Jul 31, 2007 6:39 PM EDT reply actions

Mixing and matching

Can't blame the DRO for not trying:

Corcoran
Orvella
Lugo
Camp
Stokes
Fossum

Can anyone honestly say they'd all suck that bad this year?

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 31, 2007 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Roster Spot

Right now they have 8 RP and 3 Bench players. They need to, at the very least, DFA a RP (Fossum or Stokes I assume) and call up someone for the bench(Ruggiano?). It would be great if they DFA'd both relievers and brought up Thayer.

by TomT on Jul 31, 2007 7:29 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Roster Spot

Thayer and Ruggiano for Stokes and Fossum would be very nice.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 31, 2007 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: So uh...That's it?

According to the Rays Notes on the website Maddon states that their is something going on with the pitching front that could be done by later tonite. It sounds as if it is a trade instead of a procedural move with our own players. Possibly someone traded after clearing waivers for a minor leaguer?

SC raysfan

by SC raysfan on Jul 31, 2007 7:42 PM EDT reply actions