It all starts from the bottom....

by Jacob Larsen on Sep 18, 2007 12:42 PM EDT Comment 12 comments

How many of us thought that 3 out of our 4 full-season affliates would be in the championship series of their respective leagues when the season began? Vero Beach basically got left for waste when McGee and Davis got moved up, but they still put together a decent season and gave fans of the Vero Beach Devil Rays a reason for hope(though, I believe the VB have 1 more year of existence before leaving for PC).

I believe that we owe a huge "Thank you" to the Los Angeles Dodgers for how they basically helped all 3 of our Championship-calibur teams. Without the Dodgers, we wouldn't have the Columbus Catfish as our affliate, GW-HR hitter Sergio Pedroza and our future 4th OFer Justin Ruggiano. Thanks Ned, you can have Jae Seo back as a reward.

Columbus, in my mind, was the best of trio. They basically rode 2 great starting pitchers and an unexpected crop of hitters to the playoffs and swept themselves through there. What makes their team so much better is that they played almost their entire 2nd half without their best overall hitter(Desmond Jennings). Imagine how great the Catfish would've been, had Jennings not gone out. I'm not going to say that the Catfish are primed for a repeat, but it's more than likely that their pitching staff will be even better in 2008. It's unclear whether or not David Price starts in Columbus or not, but it's almost a definite that Will Kline and probably Jeremy Hellickson will start the season in Columbus. Hellickson has slowly been promoted in the organization, so he's a good pick to repeat the start of the season in Columbus.

Will Montgomery 3peat? That's a tricky question, especially when it's unclear which Vero Beachers will be promoted and which of the current Biscuits start the 2008 season back in Montgomery? Pedroza, Davis and McGee all seem to be locks, but things can always change. Heath Rollins, in my mind, should skip Vero Beach outright and begin the season as at least the #2 or #3 for the Biscuits.

Durham fits into the same scenario as Montgomery. How many of the current Bulls' "true prospects" will be moved up to the majors and how many will continue to be Bulls? Those empty spots will be filled by Reid Brignac, John Jaso, Chris Nowak, Fernando Perez and others. Evan Meek, Nick DeBarr and Dale Thayer are locks to be mainstays of the Durham 'pen next year in my mind. It's almost a common thought that Wes Bankston will remain a Bull and more than likely the same with Justin Pridie. However, the Bulls rotation will probably be a big question mark until Spring Training is over.

Here's hoping that all 4 of our Full-Season affliates make runs at their respective league championships and at least 1 of our short-season leagues will make a push themselves.

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Hellickson

Had an awesome season. The Rays have been promoting guys from one level to the next. I see no reason why Hellickson doesn't start the season in Vero.

by Tyler on Sep 18, 2007 12:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Hellickson

What he said.

Plus there's a good chance Price will go right to Vero as well - that's been the fast track route followed by the best 1st rounders lately. Plus Rollins is only 22, so he'll likely at least start the season at Vero. Could be a nice little trifecta there - maybe Vero gets its season in the sun in '08.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Sep 18, 2007 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

No way that Price shouldn't at least be in Vero Beach next year. That is a pitcher's league and I think that a seasoned college veteran can handle it.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Sep 18, 2007 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Yeah

I disagree. You're probably just stating that the 2005 Biscuits were good because you'e remembering a few top-notch prospects on the team.

However, our pitching was dreadful in 2005, and a good offense only gets you so far.

The offense was thid in the league in both batting average and runs scored. However, a 4.30 staff ERA, good for 9th of 10 teams, doesn't even bespeak a .500 team, much less a good one. The only pitcher to throw a qualfying number of innings was Jason Cromer and the most save opportunities went to a 31-year-old retread named Cameron Smith.

And for every Jamie Shields, there was a Scott Autrey. It was dreadful.

I think the 2005 Biscuits finished about where they should have, at 67-70.

Clearly, the two best teams were the two championship teams of 2006 and 2007. Which was better is debateable. The '06 version had better pitching and the '07 version had better offense. The '06 version played better in the playoffs yet the '07 version was sronger near the end of the season and finished with a better record.

by CalloftheGame on Sep 18, 2007 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hey Jim

Thanks for dropping by. Now I know that I can attract you 'round with an inflammatory comment regarding the Biscuits!

You are right, my memory of Montgomery's 2005 team was dominated by the top prospects that were there. But those prospects were really, really good. The pitching ended up being worse than I thought it would be in 2005, but before the season Montgomery was pretty universally acclaimed as the best team in the DRO. My general point off of that was that it is really hard to win a championship in even the minor leagues, much less do it three times in a row, no matter the expectations. I still think that 2005 team had amazing talent, more so than I thought either last year's team or the year before did. I think that the Biscuits have benefitted from an organization that has kept players in Montgomery for longer periods of time; the DRO is simply more patient now than it was back in '05, when Bankston, Young, Hammel, and Seddon, among others, were raided from the team.

I didn't mean to imply that Montgomery's best team was the 2005 version, even though I pretty much stated that. I think that the records over the last three years speak for themselves. I simply thought they had the most talent, and I should have stated as much.

No question that Montgomery was blessed with some great talent over the last two years, moreso than I thought at the time, but I still think that the '05 version of the team was the strongest. Talent-wise at least.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Sep 18, 2007 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: It all starts from the bottom....

I like Montgomery for the following reason: They'll have a big 1st half with a lot of holdovers from this year's team, and I think they'll take the 1st half crown. Then, by the time playoffs roll around, a few guys that won it with Columbus this year might be up with the Biscuits.

by Kevin Gengler on Sep 18, 2007 1:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't know

I'm a little skeptical about Montgomery's chances next year. I think that they might make the playoffs, but it is just so hard to three peat. Though McGee and Davis will spend part of the season there, they are relying on a poor Vero Beach team for a lot of their new make-up. I just don't see things going our way again. Besides, the Rays have been taking promotions very slow anyways. I don't know if any substantial number of Columbus prospects will be up by the end of next year.

That isn't to say that the Biscuits will be bad. But it is really, really hard to win a title three times in a row. I think that the best Biscuits team of the last four seasons was the 2005 version, and they didn't even make the playoffs. It is just always a crapshoot, and I just don't see next year's team as being strong enough to three peat. I hope I'm wrong.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Sep 18, 2007 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: It all starts from the bottom....

Does anyone know of any studies that seek to correlate farm system success with success of the major league team? Or that distinguishes farm team success because of the presence of veterans from those dominated by prospects and how each matches to success for the major league team?

by bobr on Sep 18, 2007 3:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs