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Scott Boras Speaks Out on Peña's Value

Always an objective source of information when speaking about his clients, Scott Boras chimed in on the value of Rays 1B Carlos Peña to the media today. Perhaps seeking to pre-emptively raise Peña's value in the court of public opinion before the Rays begin negotiating a deal, Boras had a few interesting things to say.

"Carlos Pena is the greatest player to ever put on a Devil Ray uniform,"

"We'll certainly listen to what they (the Rays) have to say, if they want to say anything,"

"I think they got more than a $10-million benefit this year by getting a player who had probably a $15-million season for about $1.2-million,"

"There's no evidence to suggest that Tampa's ever committed that kind of dollars to a premium player, and we'll just wait and see if it's in their framework to do it,"

"And I'm sure their fans are waiting to see that, too, knowing also that Tampa Bay is one of the most successful economic franchises in the sense that their payroll is so low (about $25-million) and they're generating probably $140-million worth of gross revenues. When you count revenue sharing, the national TV package and licensing you're almost talking about $80-million before they even sell a ticket."

There is no getting around the fact that Boras is one of the most successful people in his career field. His ability to extort money out of teams across the world of sports has been well-documented. From draft picks to NFL holdouts, Boras has been ridiculously successful in representing his clients over the years. What is his motivation for speaking up now on Peña? Well, it is probably partly him getting in the first salvo before the free agent period kicks off. Another part of it might be Peña's lack of reluctance to lavish the Rays with praise and to state his desire to stay. Boras may view that as potentially limiting his flexibility in negotiations, so he probably wanted to step forward and make clear that Peña's commitment to the Rays is by no means open-ended. I wonder if Peña's tune will change somewhat following this first remark from his agent.

That's not to say that I don't think that Carlos is sincere about wanting to stay here. But from Boras' standpoint it is just smart business to leave as little implied obligation on the table as possible. I will be curious to see if Peña perhaps got a reminder on this point from his advisor. Obviously Peña is the boss in that relationship and still makes the final call, but I think he would certainly listen to any suggestion that allows him to earn as much money as possible while remaining in Tampa Bay. My read on this is that it is all a little battle in a war for perception.

In any case, Boras' remarks themselves certainly aren't factual truth themselves in the details. Calling his client the best player to ever wear a Rays uniform is very far short of true. Now, the best season of anyone in a Rays uniform? He may have a better case there. And I suppose it ultimately relies on what you consider the qualifier for that remark to be. Certainly from a career standpoint there have been several greater players to wear a Rays uniform; Peña isn't even the greatest first baseman to wear a Rays uniform in that respect. And due to his lack of tenure here I would argue that several more players have contributed greater amounts to the Rays than has Peña himself.

But as is the case with any Boras statement, building a case for his player using that player's merits simply isn't enough. First he has to take a back-handed swipe at the organization and argue how a large part of their future is somehow beholden to his client. Then he goes on an unsubstantiated, paragraph-long rant about how the team has the financial wherewithal to afford an inflated price for his client, which I'm sure is true. I think that the Rays certainly have enough money to pay his client and they probably do make a tidy little black mark on the ledger in most years. However to argue specific numbers without substantiation in trying to push across that point, especially when you are Scott Boras, is irresponsible. It lacks credibility. For fans to hypothesize about that in the comments here or at a forum is one thing, but Scott Boras is a major player agent with an ethical responsibility, albeit a very loose one for him, to not get fact-based information wrong by guessing it to his advantage. He doesn't have any more of a clue than we do about Tampa Bay's financial status, and he shouldn't be so cavalier in tossing those numbers around. I happen to think that the Rays make a profit, but it certainly isn't to the level he is implying I'm sure.

An important thing to remember though is that while Boras attempted to place a value on Peña's season, he didn't really speak about a suggested range for his future contract. There is a difference. I personally don't feel that Peña is a premium player yet, and it has everything to do with sustainability. He has not produced a season remotely like this before, and I just don't feel comfortable in grouping him with top tier players without sustained success. I absolutely believe that bringing him back is of the utmost importance, but unless the contract is for two or three years at $5-8 million, I think that the team is better off giving him a one year deal and seeing if he can sustain it. I am not expecting him to replicate his season this year, but if he can again perform in the top tier, then we can talk about $10, $11, $12 million dollars for multiple years. Until then, I don't feel fully confident in expending large money tied to a multiyear commitment on essentially one season, albeit a spectacular one.

What are your thoughts? Not just on Boras' remarks, but what do you think the Rays should do with respect to Peña's contractual status this offseason? We can debate the semantics of his remarks all we want, but ultimately it comes down to a length and a dollar agreement as far as his status goes. What type of deal should they be offering, and for how long? I'd be interesting in hearing what the consensus of Rays Nation is.

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Re: Scott Boras Speaks Out on Peña's Value
I am not sure what his contract status is. I thought the Rays have his rights through 2008. Is he eligible for arbitration after this year?

In any case, I agree with everything you say, Patrick. The Rays need to retain Pena, but if it is possible to do it for one year, that is what I would do. I do think it is likely he will remain an excellent player for a few more years. even if this year represents his peak. Since I doubt that Boras would allow a 3 year deal for less than $10 million per, I would still wait a year to see if this is indeed for real. Perhaps that would be more costly in the long run, but I think the gamble is worth it.

As for Boras's comments, obviously he is trying to pressure the Rays into dealing by appealing to the fan base. I doubt the Rays will cave in to that approach.

by bobr on Sep 18, 2007 5:22 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I thought he's in arb after this year as well
In which case his earning potential is significantly capped. What was the largest arbitration handout in baseball history, Miggy Cabrera? And that was what, $7 million? I just don't see Peña/Boras' negotiating leverage if that's the case.

Regardless, I agree with your last point very much so. I haven't always been on the same side as the DRO on everything, but I think they do a good job at not letting the baseball operations department be influenced by fan sentiment. That creates issues when it arises, and I have been pleased with the relative autonomy with which it has been granted from the business/customer relations side of the organization. That is a major plus.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Sep 18, 2007 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: I thought he's in arb after this year as well
FYI Patrick, I remember pretty clearly that Greg Maddux took something like $14mil in arb from the Braves before the '03 season, which led to my Phils "stealing" Kevin Millwood by trading Johnny Estrada for him...grrrr...but for a position player you may well be right re: Miggy C.

by das411 on Sep 19, 2007 2:33 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Greg Maddux wouldn't have been in arb in '03
He would have been in the major leagues for 16 years at that point. The arb eligibility period is the first six service years of a player's career.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Sep 19, 2007 8:56 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Greg Maddux wouldn't have been in arb in '03
Maddux accepted arbitration offered to him as a free agent with his current team. But you're right, that isn't comparable. The Cabrera comp is the most meaningful, as it was a year 1 award. Soriano got $10 mil in arb, but in his 2nd or 3rd year of eligibility.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Sep 19, 2007 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Boras
Look at how he's selling Kyle Lohse:
  • saying he's 26-27 (he's not)
  • playoff experience (less than 20 IP)
  • a workhorse (never been on the DL but more than 200 IP only once)
Also look at how he sold that 20 mil number of A-Rods and the 30 mil number nowadays for Alex.

Boras is really good at this stuff.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 18, 2007 5:49 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Scott Boras Speaks Out on Peña's Value
Boras saying they got over a $10 million benefit this year is pointless.  He is Pena's agent, it was his job to get Pena the money he would deserve for this season.  It's not our fault that Pena had a breakout year when he was only making $1.2 million.  On the flip side, Pena attributed much of his success to the coaching he received here, so by signing him, coaching him, and allowing him to play, we have increased his long-term earning potential, and by much more than $10 million.

by raysrule07 on Sep 18, 2007 6:19 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Scott Boras Speaks Out on Peña's Value
Pena has had a hell of a turn around. I feel if the Rays are serious in being a winner,Pena would be the right move. The trouble is when negotiating a contract Boras will show want compensation for Carlos this year, where the Rays will see a flash in the pan. Yeah, Carlos has had a hell of a season, but when you look at it in numbers, you see a sub-par Carlos. So, somewhere in the middle the Rays and Boras must meet. I am predicting 5-8 million contract with incentives and options, in the 3-5 year range.

If I am the Rays, I would want proof of one more year of "Super Carlos" before I talk about 10 million. Because you know once you open that door, you might have Carl saying "WTF?"

So that's my two cents. Ka-ching.

by thebaddancingraysfan on Sep 18, 2007 8:16 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

If the Rays could get Peña for 3-5 @ 5-8
I would be elated. Unfortunately I don't think that Boras would settle for that coming off of the season Carlos just had. This is Carlos' last chance to get a long term payday, and I just don't see him settling for that. He might very well overrule Boras and work out a deal like that, but from a monetary standpoint they would be stupid to make that move.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Sep 18, 2007 8:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: If the Rays could get Peña for 3-5 @ 5-8
We do have a chip to play, if he wants more money. We can say we are going younger with Guzman. It would be a good deal...

by thebaddancingraysfan on Sep 18, 2007 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

So what?
If we went younger with Guzman, wouldn't that expose him to free agency, wherein he'd make twice as much money for multiple years? Believe me, the free market would overpay for him, I don't think bluffing will work.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Sep 18, 2007 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Scott Boras Speaks Out on Peña's Value
This 5-8 million number being bandied about is per year, no?

And I don't think you'll see an incentive based contract here - that's typically offered to players coming off injury (see Baldelli). Incentive based contracts result from a Free Agent player being unable to get a club to commit to terms but offering them upsides for performance and often with escape clauses. Pena can rely on his arb eligibility and doesn't have any need to take this route. The Rays choice is to go to arb or go long term - if they decline arb he's a free agent following a monster year - the best possible option for Carlos and Boras.

I think they can agree on a significant extension - the longer it is, the cheaper it'll be in year 1, perhaps starting at about $4-5 mil. But it will rise significantly per year from there.

That's why I'd go to arb with him to see how real is the emergence. I said elsewhere here I thought that number might be $6 million - that could be a bit high. Morneau just got ('07) $4.5 mil in his 1st arb year coming off an MVP season. That's might be more like it. But this is CP's 2nd arb year, so we'll see.

Soriano got $7.5 mil in his 2nd arb year ('05) coming off the following '04:
.280/28/91 w/ 18 SB, .808 OPS.

Pena '07 to date:
.276/40/112, 1.001 OPS. Oh, & 1 SB

Of course Sori had a continuing record of success to that point.

And CC might have some issues, but I also think he likes Pena batting behind he and Upton, so I'm sure he's in CP's corner. He'd like to see the Rays step up financially, and the future is always "renegotiable".

by nyyfaninlaaland on Sep 19, 2007 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Carlos could always pull a Rocco
He could always fire Boras and negotiate a contract for himself. Even better is use Rocco as his agent and have Rocco negotiate for him, he'd get a decent amount of money while maintaining a team-friendly contract and it'd give Rocco something to do while recovering from whatever it is that he suffers from nowadays.

by Jacob Larsen on Sep 18, 2007 9:00 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I think Rocco's deal was pretty unique
It was tailored specifically to pay out based on his ability to participate in baseball games, and it was consummated before the flurry of absurd contracts that have occurred over the last two offseasons. Carlos would almost certainly command far more for that time frame.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Sep 18, 2007 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: I think Rocco's deal was pretty unique
However, if Carlos wants to stay in TB and doesn't really care for the per year rate...he may just do this type of deal.

Yeah, Rocco's deal angered a ton of agents who demanded that the MLBPA look into his contract. That's kinda funny to hear....

by Jacob Larsen on Sep 18, 2007 9:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: I think Rocco's deal was pretty unique
You're dreaming Jake. How is it at all in Pena's interest to do such?

We had a discussion a ways back about going long term or not with Pena. Almost all here wanted to - thinking that a 3-5 year, 5-8 mil per deal was doable. It isn't. My feeling at the time was go to arb, let CP show his stuff again. He's still arb eligible after '08. So the Rays have some control over the situation.

Boras is trying to increase the terms the Rays will offer for an extension, or make them bid higher in an arb hearing. But realistically a 1 year arb settlement for '08 will fall around 6 mil. And Boras is good at this, so why would Pena dump him? He may like Tampa a lot, but I think he likes money at least as much.

By the way, his revenue numbers are probably right on. The payouts from the Central fund (broadcasting, etc.), licensing, and revenue sharing are known quantities. And a math whiz could likely calculate the Rays local revenue using the revenue sharing structure as a guide - all teams pay 31% of local revenue after operating expenses (including stadium improvements, so the new scoreboard, turf, ray tank, etc. is taken into account before the Rays pay in) into the fund which is then distributed back in 30 equal shares. What one "pays" or "receives" is the difference between their contribution and their return. Not an easy calculation - at least not for me being so long out of school - but I gotta believe Boras has a pretty good handle on those numbers as well - his business is numbers after all. So perhaps now you can see why I've harped on this issue a bit here. At this point in time, the Rays are simply awash in cash and are likely one of the most profitable franchises in the game, at least on a percentage basis if not in actual dollars. Don't kid yourselves here - unless the Rays have by far the fattest management structure around, it's hard to burn through that kind of revenue. Excepting the $14 mil set up expense in Venezuela (more than covered by their revenue sharing "payout") they aren't spending significantly more than other clubs on development, the draft, etc. That's just the way it is.

Now the org is well within their rights to do so - no law against making a tidy profit. And they will likely argue that Boras' numbers are wrong, he doesn't have the whole picture, etc. But they don't have to, and won't, share the actual info because they're a private company, plus there's that wonderful antitrust exemption baseball enjoys. They can count on the fans taking their side versus that evil Scott Boras - and that strategy will work. But don't be duped into thinking they're struggling - nothing could be further from the truth.

But hey, we're baseball fans, not economists. Pena will stay in '08, and if you wind up thinking he's overpaid, just remember - the team's got the cash. You might lose your free parking though. Nice moniker for CP down the road - Carlos "Paid parking" Pena.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Sep 19, 2007 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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