Prospect List #3

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 25, 2007 3:09 PM EDT

If you hadn't noticed the counter at the bottom (thanks Patrick) and the poll on the right (again thanks Patrick) have shot up rapidly the past two days, no we're not rigging our numbers, but rather Will Leitch at Deadspin and Larry Brown of AOL Fanhouse linked to our coverage of the Rays new uniforms and logo. As most of you remember I wrote the Deadspin Rays preview way back in February as well as interviewed Leitch, as for AOL Fanhouse you have to applaud AOL for being the first major sports media corporation to jump on the blog bandwagon and they've got a great gathering of bloggers.

I'd like to extend a hat tip to both of those gentlemen for the links and a welcome to those 3,000+ readers who have found our growing fan base in the past few days.

Moving on, we've came to slot number three on our prospect list, but here's the winner of the number two spot, a very familiar face and so far the NDRO is responsible for both picks, here's David Price:

Price entered his junior season as the best amateur player in the country and reinforced his reputation with a third dominant season. He has the complete portfolio of athleticism, stuff, makeup and a proven track record. He posted a 0.43 ERA with 151 strikeouts in 65 innings as a high school senior and would have been a high-round pick if it hadn't for signability questions. The Dodgers made a run at signing him after drafting him in the 19th round in 2004, but Price stuck to his Vanderbilt commitment and stepped into the rotation right away, earning Freshman All-America honors. Price attends Vanderbilt on a financial scholarship, rather than a baseball ride, and he is lauded for his positive, team-first attitude. He took two tours with USA Baseball's college national team, including a 5-1, 0.20 stint in 2006 when he led Team USA to a gold medal in the World University Games in Cuba and was named Summer Player of the Year. His fastball/slider/changeup repertoire is unmatched among amateurs. He pitches at 90-91 mph, but the late life, arm-side run and finish of his fastball make it a weapon. He can dial it up to 95, seemingly whenever he needs to. His slider touches 87 with hard, late, sharp bite, grading as a 70 pitch on the 20-80 scale. His changeup is deceptive, and a third plus pitch. He spots all three of his pitches to all four quadrants of the strike zone, adds and subtracts and carves up hitters with efficiency and ease. His arm action and delivery are excellent. Price was an honorable mention all-Tennessee selection in basketball in high school, an indication of his athletic ability, which helps him field his position well and repeat his delivery. He profiles, conservatively, as a No. 2 starter, while some scouts see him as a true No. 1. The Devil Rays are expected to make him the top pick.

Running List

Evan Longoria
David Price
Tomorrow

Jake McGee

Position: LHSP

Age: 21.1

Projected 08 Level: AA/AAA

Stats:

Vero Beach (21 GS)- 116.2 IP 86 H 8 HR 145 SO 39 BB 2.93 ERA

Montgomery (5 GS)- 23.1 IP 19 H 2 HR 30 SO 13 BB 4.24 ERA

McGee out dueled fellow top lefty prospect Clay Kershaw not once but twice down the pivotal stretch and alongside fellow top arms Christopher Mason and Wade Davis lead Montgomery to it's second consecutive Southern League title. His fastball is ethereal and perhaps for the pure potential alone he could make a case for the first or second slot in the organizational food chain.

Wade Davis

Position: RHSP

Age:22.0

Projected 08 Level: AA/AAA

Stats:

Vero Beach (13 GS) - 78.1 IP 54 H 5 HR 88 K 21 BB 1.84 ERA

Montgomery (14 GS) - 80 IP 74 H 3 HR 81 K 30 BB 3.15 ERA

Another third of the Montgomery trio, Davis is more polished than McGee in terms of using his non-fastball pitches, although I'm not sure that any of his pitches can match the effectiveness of that McGee heater.

Reid Brignac

Position: SS

Age:21.8

Projected 08 Level: AAA

Stats:

Montgomery (527 AB) - .260/.328/.433/.761 17 HR 81 RBIs 55 BB 94 K

Although the Cajun God did struggle for most of the year, you wonder if perhaps some of it was Longoria withdrawal. Brignac maintains his hacky ways, but with a patient hitter like Longoria complementing his style you have to wonder if he grew too accustomed to the Batman / Robin approach.

Jeff Niemann

Position: RHSP

Age:24.7

Projected 08 Level: MLB

Stats:

Durham (25 GS) - 131 IP 144 H 13 HR 123 K 46 BB 3.98 ERA

"Big Red" had his most healthy season to date and finished strong down the stretch, giving hope that come April Niemann will be taking the mound for Tampa every fifth day.

Poll

Who's #3?

0 recs | Comment 19 comments

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Comments

Re: Prospect List #3

This decision is between McGee and Brignac for me. They're both pretty raw but since Brignac is the consensus #1 SS prospect in baseball I'll have to go with him. His season was a tad disappointing but had several encouraging aspects to it.

by sattp on Sep 25, 2007 3:19 PM EDT 0 recs

Re: Prospect List #3

I had to go with McGee, he just has such a huge ceiling. Davis and Brignac is a closer call, as both could be good enough to make a few All-Star games, but McGee could be really special, even a Cy Young contender.

by raysrule07 on Sep 25, 2007 3:23 PM EDT up 0 recs

I agree

McGee is my #3, I agree with you completely on that. I think that I have even Davis above Brignac while we're at it.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Sep 25, 2007 3:42 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: I agree

Brignac/McGee is a close call for me but I clearly put McGee ahead of Davis. They're both raw talents with huge ceilings. I personally always have more faith in hitting prospects developing into better hitters than I do in pitching prospects developing better secondary pitches. For solely that reason I went with Brignac.

by sattp on Sep 25, 2007 3:51 PM EDT up 0 recs

True

McGee does need to work on his secondary pitches, but I'm curious if he could become a top flight reliever as an alternative.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 25, 2007 3:53 PM EDT up 0 recs

He might be able to

And I think that he would be a really unique player in that role, as a hard-tossing lefty. However I think that whenever you have someone of that much talent, you exhaust all options as far as making them a starter go before converting him to relief. The disparity in value between the two roles is just huge.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Sep 25, 2007 4:40 PM EDT up 0 recs

Something about Brignac

That causes some concern to me is his absurdley high BABIP until this year, we're talking .395 last year, .370 before and .330 in 2005 compared to .288 this year.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 25, 2007 3:49 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Prospect List #3

Has to be McGee. One of the top young lefties in the minors and projects out to be a number 1 or 2 starter in the pros. Brignac is good and is the number 1 SS, but as much as I like Brignac I think the fact that he is the number 1 SS in the minors is more about bad SS than him being so dominant. I too think i would have Davis over Brignac at the moment.

http://tampabaysportsfanatic.blogspot.com/

by tampabaysportsfanatic on Sep 25, 2007 4:06 PM EDT 0 recs

Brignac

I'm guessing he drops to 5 at best, I think Wade takes 4 and Niemann falls to 6, unless of course Fernando Perez has something to say about it.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 25, 2007 4:10 PM EDT up 0 recs

No

I don't think Ferny is that high on my list. I like the added gains he made in driving the ball this year, but I'm just not confident enough to say that they are real and will continue to last. I think that he might be Top 10, certainly Top 15, but I'm just concerned about whether the power gains are here to stay.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Sep 25, 2007 4:39 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Prospect List #3

I am considering not who has the highest ceiling (probably McGee), but who has the better chance of making it in the majors, and for that reason I choose Davis. As great as McGee might become, Davis is not that far behind, while he is ahead of McGee in his development. The very fact that there is some discussion of McGee moving to the bullpen suggests to me that Davis remains the better prospect.

I think people may be underestimating Brignac. Apparently his defense improved this year (He looked fine when I saw him), and except for his BA his numbers were as good or better as they were last year. He walked more, struck out less and continued to hit for power. My #3 ranking goes to Davis, but when we get to #4, if it is between McGee and Brignac, I am not sure yet which way I will vote.

by bobr on Sep 25, 2007 4:55 PM EDT 0 recs

Re: Prospect List #3

That makes two of us. Davis' repertoire is more evolved than McGee's. A great fastball starts to mean less and less the higher up the organization you go. I see McGee as our eventual closer and Davis matching up with Carlos Zambrano as far as stuff goes.

www.lakelandbaseballacademy.com

by SeanDubbs on Sep 25, 2007 8:10 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Prospect List #3

I think that at this moment in time Davis has a more advanced arsenal of pitches, but I don't think that makes him a better prospect. I think that McGee's ceiling is higher and that his assortment of pitches will grow to surpass that of Davis. I really like lefty pitchers a lot, and McGee is so unusually hard-tossing and talented for one that I just salivate over him.

Wonderful dilemma to have though, as far as where to rank them in relation to one another.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Sep 25, 2007 9:29 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Prospect List #3

I think the only thing that can stop either one is health, so lets keep them away from Rocco's little brother and keep our fingers crossed.

***VOTE WADE DAVIS FOR #3!!*****

www.lakelandbaseballacademy.com

by SeanDubbs on Sep 25, 2007 11:42 PM EDT up 0 recs

ODRO's share of the credit(?)

I think you're selling the prior regime short here in giving the new boss so much credit.

Had they not been so ineffective, the new guys wouldn't have had the high picks to land your #1 and 2 on the list. On a more positive note, most others were drafted by the old guys, while the new guys got some in trades and others to come in their 2 drafts.

I'd have to agree with comments I heard re Price in the prior 2 strings - I'm a show me guy. Clearly a talent, but no IP in any pro level yet, so it's hard for me to put him so high. Not to say anyone here is wrong - look at what happened in NY this season with Joba and Kennedy. They zoomed through the minors with lesser pedigrees. So I'll keep an open mind.

The other issue is organizational need and closeness to reaching versus "upside". Clearly Brignac's headed to fill a current hole, but will the hole still be there when/if he's ready to fill it? So are the pitchers, but the OF's are stifled. Niemann is "closer", McGee and Davis seem to have more upside. Personally I like Davis over McGee because of the broader repertoire, and both over Brignac.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Sep 25, 2007 5:29 PM EDT 0 recs

Actually

The ODRO is largely responsible for the farm system, and more so than just sucking. As poor as they were at evaluating big league talent they always spent money on drafts and usually drafted well. If we win a WS in the next few years some of that credit goes to LaMar / Wilken / ect. for getting a guy like Crawford.

In fact I'd be willing to say if the ODRO were still in place we would've won more games the past two years, not because they would've been smarter or spent more, rather because they would've been impatient and pulled the Robbie Alomar exercise over and over again, using stop gags instead of letting young guys play and struggle.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 25, 2007 5:33 PM EDT up 0 recs

I'm not really sure where we would have ended up

I am confident that the status quo would have been maintained as far as the business side of the organization goes, a negative, but I'd be curious to see how the ODRO would have done with personnel decisions over the last two years. Certainly we wouldn't have had the influx of talent that came in through trades, but I'd be curious to see what we would have done with respect to free agency.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Sep 25, 2007 6:18 PM EDT up 0 recs

I would've guessed

Financially less money would've been put into the stadium and advertisement but at the same time attendance and ratings likely would've been down.

As far as how they approached Huff, Lugo, ect. I would have to think they would've held on to them for draft picks, at least after being hesitant to deal with the appearance that in today's market you're just not going to get a king's ransom for a player not within the top tier of talent.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 25, 2007 6:23 PM EDT up 0 recs