Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: Ryder Hesjedal Wins Giro d'Italia

5-year Draft Review

My good buddy Kyle Warren gave me the idea to do this piece so I ran with it. He wanted to have a look back at past drafts, and evaluate them now that we have seen the players progress for a couple years. I cut it off with the 2005 draft, even though that one is still to early to evaluate.

It became evident that 2004 was hands down the best draft the Rays have ever had, and it is amazing how many players from that draft are considered to be among our top prospects. Check out the article after the jump!

Star-divide


2001 DRAFT

Best player drafted: OF Jonny Gomes

This was a pretty terrible draft by most measurements, with Jonny coming in the 18th round being the most impressive player drafted. A argument could be made for Chad Gaudin, who was drafted in the 34th round, and has seemed to found himself in Oakland. Jonny is the only player drafted that year, who is likely to be on the opening day roster. Hammel was drafted that year, but didn't sign until he was drafted again in 2002.

Biggest Bust: SP Dewon Brazelton

As much as it saddens me to say this, Dewon is very similar to Edwin Jackson. Two pitchers with plus stuff, but haven't been able to find the control to harness it. Dewon was the 3rd overall pick in the 2001 draft, and never lived up to his expectations. He posted a career ERA of 6.38, including a 1-8 record with a 7.61 ERA in his last season as a Ray.

Steal of the Draft: OF Joey Gathright

While a case could be made for Joey Gathright, Chad Gaudin was taken in the 34th round and has turned into a league-average MLB pitcher. Gaudin tore it up through the minors before becoming the youngest Ray in club history to make it to the mlb level at 20 years and 4 months. Unfortunately for the Rays, he could never really perform to his utmost ability, possibly because he was rushed to the majors.

Most interesting pick of the draft: Matt Lukevicks

Matt is the son of the Rays current Director of Minor League Operations Mitch Lukevicks. Matt was selected in the 45th round, and was just a throw in waste of pick. This is common practice in the MLB, as the teams get in the later rounds, they sometimes run out of players they would be interested in signing.

Notable Draft picks (round): Dewon Brazelton (1), Jon Switzer (2), Chris Seddon(5), Jonny Gomes (18), Jason Hammel (19), Joey Gathright (32), Chad Gaudin (34)

2002 DRAFT

Best Player Drafted: SS BJ Upton

This one was basically a no-brainer. BJ was the second overall pick that year, only behind Bryan Bullington of the Pirates. Bucs fans are still scratching their heads over that one. BJ has since moved to the outfield, and had great offensive success in the 2007 season, posting a OPS of .894 at the age of 22.

Biggest Bust: OF Elijah Dukes

While many will question the mentioning of Elijah as a bust, since he has shown the ability to crush on the MLB-level. His off-field liabilities are what have made him a bust. The Rays new he wasn't exactly a man of character when he was drafted, and were lucky enough to get a good pitching prospect in return for him. It is a shame, because Dukes is such a amazing athlete. He could easily turn around his career with the Nationals, but he will need some serious changes in his social life for this to happen.

Steal of the Draft: None

Most Interesting Pick: Mike Pelfrey and Jacoby Ellsbury

Pelfrey was taken in the 15th round and Ellsbury in the 23rd, and neither of these players signed with the Rays. Since then, these 2 became highly touted prospects in the Mets and Red Sox organizations, respectively. Ellsbury is considered the center fielder of the future for the Red Sox, while Pelfrey is expected to play a larger role in the Mets bullpen this season.

Notable draft picks(round): B.J. Upton (1), Jason Pridie (2), Elijah Dukes (3), Wes Bankston (4), Chris Leroux (9), Jason Hammel (10), Nick DeBarr (11), Mike Pelfrey (12), Mike Prochaska (16), Jacoby Ellsbury (23), Matt Cobb (38)

2003 DRAFT

Best Player Drafted: OF Delmon Young

Delmon was the 1st overall pick of the draft, and was considered by most experts as the correct choice. Delmon tore up minor league ball, and got his first full season as a Ray last year in 2007. While finishing 2nd in the AL Rookie of the Year voting, he didn't really have a great year, his numbers were basically a results of playing in all 162 games. There are many concerns regarding his high strikeout rates, and low on-base percentage. He is still regarded as a extremely-promising player, who has an upside of being a Vlad Guerrero type of player. No a member of the Twins after the trade that brought us Garza, Bartlett, and Morlan. He has by far been the most valuable player drafted by the Rays in 2003.

Biggest Bust: 3B Travis Schlichting

Travis was selected in the 4th round by the Rays, and never posted a OPS higher than .682 as a member of the Rays system. In his 3 years as a Ray he hit a total of 5 homers, from a typical power position. He was eventually traded to the Angels for catcher Josh Paul.

Steal of the Draft: C John Jaso

Jaso was taken in the 12th round, but is considered to be one of the better catching prospects in all of baseball. Last season he put up a OPS of 836 at Double-A Montgomery at the age of 23. He is expected to start this season at Durham, and may be knocking on the door for a September callup. He has made vast improvements in his plate approach as he has risen his OBP from .339 his rookie year in Hudson Valley to .408 last year in Montgomery.

Most Interesting Pick: P Andrew Miller

The Rays took Andrew with the 3rd pick in the 2003 draft, and he did not sign. 3 years later in 2006, he was taken with the 6th pick overall by the Detroit Tigers. He is considered to be one of the top young pitchers in baseball, and will be one to follow for years to come. Another interesting pick was William "Billy" Buckner. Not only does he have a infamous baseball name, but he is now considered one of the top prospects in the Royals system.

Notable Draft Picks (round): Delmon Young (1), James Houser (2), Andrew Miller (3), Travis Schlichting (4), William Buckner (9), John Jason (12), Chad Orvella (13)

2004 DRAFT

Best Player Drafted: SP Wade Davis

RJ suggested this one should just be TBD, because there are so many great prospects from this draft. I went with Davis, since he was rated highest on the DRaysBay prospect list, but it could be anyone from Davis, McGee, Niemann, Brignac, or Sonnanstine. This shows you how incredible this draft was for the team, and any success we have in the future should be much accredited to this draft.

Biggest Bust: C Matthew Spring

Matthew was a 4th round selection in the 04 draft, and has never really panned out as a prospect. In 4 years of minor league ball he has a career line of .200/.269/.348, but the team has stuck with as he got some exposure in Double-A Montgomery last season.

Steal of the Draft: SP Andy Sonnanstine

Sonny was drafted in the 13th round, and not too much was expected from the hurler from Kent State. All he managed to do in the minor league level was win, posting a career minor league line of 40-18 with a 2.58 ERA. He went through some growing pains last year at the MLB level, but is expected to be a contributing member of the rotation this year.

Most Interesting Pick: Donald Fines

The main reason we chose Donald as most interesting, was the fact that he has the coolest name. He is known to Rays fans as Woods Fines, and he pitched last year for Single-A Columbus with a 7-7 record and a 4.41 ERA.

Notable Draft Picks (rounds): Jeff Niemann (1), Reid Brignac (2), Wade Davis (3), Jacob Mcgee (5), Ryan Royster (6), Fernando Perez (7), Andy Sonnanstine (13), Woods Fines (14), Chris Nowak (19)

Please take a minute to look back in amazement at the 2004 draft.

2005 DRAFT

Best Player Drafted: P Jeremy Hellickson

This was pretty close between Jeremy and Mason, but I give Hellickson the nod due to his upside. At only the age of 19, he pitched to a 2.43 ERA at Single-A Hudson Valley two years ago, and followed it up with another sub-3 ERA at Columbus last season. He has tremendous upside, and is expected to be a high-prospect with the Rays for at least the next couple of years.

Biggest Bust: P Wade Townsend

Wade was the Rays first round selection in the 2005 draft, and has had all sorts of injury problems. This has kept him from being able to get into a groove. Last season he pitched 102 innings with a ERA of 5.08 at Single-A Columbus. It is tought to name a bust from such a recent draft, but being this poor as a first round pick has gained that status for Wade.

Biggest Steal of the Draft: P Micheal Wlodarczyk

Mike was a 7th round selection for the Rays, which is kind of high for a steal, but there have not really been in lower round successes as of yet. It is still early for this draft. Mike has posted sub-4 ERA's at every level in the minors, including a 9-6 3.85 performance last season at Single-A Vero Beach. Im looking forward to seeing Mike pitch at some higher levels, preferably Double-A to start the season.

Most Interesting Pick: First 30 picks as a whole

In the 2005 draft, the Rays selected pitchers with 22 of their first 30 picks. Not suprisingly, these selections were after the Rays staff posted a 5.39 team ERA.

Notable Draft Picks (round): Wade Townsend (1), Chris Mason (2), Jeremey Hellickson (4), Michael McCormick (5), Greg Reinhard (6), Mike Wlodarczyk (7), Derek Feldcamp (9), John Matulia (10), Matt Falk (28), Garret Groce (41)

Comment 27 comments  |  0 recs  | 

Do you like this story?

Comments

Display:

Re: 5-year Draft Review
Great story. Nice to see and look how the front offices drafted those year. Fabulous job. I'm going to like to this on my site. Keep it up Matt.
Eric SanInocencio www.mvn.com/mlb-rays

by EricSanSan on Jan 23, 2008 3:38 PM EST reply actions  

Re: 5-year Draft Review
thanks for the kind words
General Manager Manifesto Matt Bishoff

by Matt Bishoff on Jan 23, 2008 3:45 PM EST up reply actions  

2001 is painful
If not for Hurricane Gordon we could've had Prior  or Mauer.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 23, 2008 3:47 PM EST reply actions  

Re: 2001 is painful
2001 is a good example of the importance of the #1 pick.  The failure of Brazelton to develop overshadows otherwise productive late-round finds in Gomes, Gathright and Gaudin.  Signing David Bush (and perhaps Diamond) might have helped.

But then again, we probably would have promoted him at ridiculous speed just like Brazelton and Gaudin after the pitching disaster 106-loss 2002 big league club.

2004 was certainly a terrific draft.  Good job by Bonifay, Wilken and yes even LaMar.

It's early, but it is starting to look doubtful that Wilken's 2005 draft will be nearly as productive.  In my opinion, it is looking similar to 2001 due mostly to the lack of return on Wade Townsend.  Looks like it is up to Hellickson and Mason make up for his shortfall.

by RATW on Jan 23, 2008 5:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Don't forget
They've still got McCormick as a sleeper from that class.  But other than that, you're right, it was very shallow.

by raysrule07 on Jan 23, 2008 5:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: 2001 is painful
Why is everybody writing off Townsend? Tommy John surgery is a 2-year sentence...not a death sentence.

first year after surgery is a complete loss. second year is spent learning how to pitch again.

The team will still be careful with Townsend this year, but this is the first season that we see what kind of pitcher he can be.

Almost everybody comes back 100% from Tommy John. Heck, Al Reyes has had it twice. Now I dont know if WT will ever be a major leaguer but The kid was a Top 10 pick. Let's at least see what he can do when healthy and 100%.

The Revolution will begin soon...

by Devil Ray Guevara on Jan 23, 2008 6:18 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: 2001 is painful
I don't think anyone is writing him off, espescially me. But to this point, he has been a bust as a 1st round draft selection. I would really like to see him progress. But if I had to pick one bust from that draft over the last 2 years, IMO it is certainly him.
General Manager Manifesto Matt Bishoff

by Matt Bishoff on Jan 23, 2008 6:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: 5-year Draft Review
I would argue that McGee was the biggest steal of the 2004 draft. If all 30 teams could go back in time and hold that draft over, McGee would probably be a top 3 pick.

by The Professor on Jan 23, 2008 4:44 PM EST reply actions  

Re: 5-year Draft Review
Thats argument definitely has credence. I went with Sonnanstine due to all of his success he has had, after being a such a late round pick. With the 2004 draft, there were so many great picks its hard to choose just 1, and I could definitely understand someone arguing for McGee.
General Manager Manifesto Matt Bishoff

by Matt Bishoff on Jan 23, 2008 4:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: 5-year Draft Review
the 2004 draft is the best ever in the rays history with Jeff Niemann (1), Reid Brignac (2), Wade Davis (3), Jacob Mcgee (5),  , Fernando Perez (7), Andy Sonnanstine (13) who could all contribute in the next two years and will help the rays make the playoffs someday and jeremy hellickson and chris mason who will move up another level this year and are starting to establish themselves. the most recent drafts have some very good prospects in 2006 they got desmond jennings and evan longoria. in 2007 they drafted david price who may be up in the majors later this season.

by RayOfHope on Jan 23, 2008 9:21 PM EST reply actions  

Re: 5-year Draft Review
The Townsend pick hurts the most of any if you look at the other picks from that draft:

justin upton, alex gordon, zimmerman, braun, tulo, pelfrey, maybin, ellsbury, garza, colby rasmus, joey devine, Luke Hochever, travis buck, Clay Buchulz, Kevin Slowey, Yunel Escobar, and Micah Owings.

by rglass44 on Jan 23, 2008 10:27 PM EST reply actions  

Re: 5-year Draft Review
upton through tulo were off the draft board already and the rays now have garza. and it is not like townsend cant rebound into the pitcher the rays thought he was when they drafted him, he could be used in the bullpen down the line.

by RayOfHope on Jan 23, 2008 10:35 PM EST reply actions  

Re: 5-year Draft Review
i was just saying how stacked the class was, not that we should have picked them. imagine if we had picked a few picks earlier...

also, we gave up the best prospect this franchise has ever seen to get garza, so you cant say that we have him now. id trade townsend for delmon back anyday.

by rglass44 on Jan 23, 2008 10:38 PM EST reply actions  

Re: 5-year Draft Review
ya thats true i wish they could have delmon and garza because then we wouldnt have to worry about trading our right fielder and we would also have garza here still. good point rglass44

by RayOfHope on Jan 23, 2008 10:50 PM EST reply actions  

Re: 5-year Draft Review
Did Kyle Warren copy this idea off of me in Latin class?

by Ryan A on Jan 23, 2008 11:18 PM EST reply actions  

Re: 5-year Draft Review
I am sure he never cheated in Latin class

by LogJammin on Jan 24, 2008 1:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: 5-year Draft Review
It's always refreshing to read different views and opinions regarding draft picks. Looking at the top picks, best player drafted, biggest bust etc. I can see we're rating these players mostly by their "now" factor results.

Being a baseball fanatic as most of us are or claim to be, I have to suggest that we look at the following players named as busts or written off that may be future MLB stars.

1st I'd look at Jeff Neimann. I watch many Minor League games across the country, Jeff Neimann posesses a mound prescence and intimidation factor that Major League hitters will soon face. In the case of Neimann, last year was his building strength year back from surgery. Look for the Bigg'n from Rice to make an impact in the Rays rotation/ middle relief by the 08' All Star break if not joining the team as a starter to open the season.

2nd, akin to the Neimann story above, Townsend will soon be pitching healthy at a high level. Wade will need some innings at Durham, but what an arm. He has the prototype pitchers body scouts look for. I look for Wade to impress this season.  

At this stage I don't believe any of these players mentioned above can be rated as busts or best player drafted beyond Young and Upton. To consider Dukes a bust by rating him on the field would be a complete misinterpretation of Elijah's on the field skills. Understanding the Rays front office is building this team based on character, the Dukes fiasco may come back to haunt them if he stays clean in Washington. If one can evaluate and rate baseball skills, Young and Dukes talent and skill levels rate much higher than many other position players in the Rays farm system excluding Evan Longoria who is a complete player and a can't miss for stardom.

My concern with these type of rankings is how would Josh Hamilton be rated? A bust I take it? Rocco Baldelli? Best player/ biggest bust all in one? Steal of the draft Joey Gathright? Speed to the extreme but with a marginal glove, poor throwing arm, and a pitiful W/K ratio for a ham & egger. Hammel & Sonnanstine were steals. Sonnanstine is a strike throwing machine that will most likely stick in the Rays rotation, maybe even unseat Matt Garza who seems to not throw the ball over the plate as much as I'd like to see.

Overall Matt, great rendition of the Minor League picks. Maybe a " watch out for" pick could have included some now healthy players with huge upsides.

BBG-1

by BaseballGuru on Jan 24, 2008 9:13 AM EST reply actions  

Re: 5-year Draft Review
I did these based on the value they brought to the organization. I never categorized Niemann as a bust. I did categorize Townsend, as if there is one player from the 2005 draft who hasn't performed to the ability of where they were drafted, it would most definitely be Townsend. That doesn't mean that he can't bounce back now that he is fully health, as I know many people expect he will. I also think Elijah was a bust for the Rays, as we were not ever able to get any value. If you want to look at it this way. Elijah was a 3rd round pick. He was on the Rays payroll for 5 years and developed, before being traded for a player who was drafted in the 4th round in 2006. In his 5 years with the Rays his value didn't improve, it in fact diminished due to his off field problems.
General Manager Manifesto Matt Bishoff

by Matt Bishoff on Jan 24, 2008 10:15 AM EST up reply actions  

Re: 5-year Draft Review
The Rays got back the Nats best pitching prospect for Dukes though... FWIW.

by rglass44 on Jan 24, 2008 10:57 AM EST reply actions  

Re: 5-year Draft Review
the rays asked for one of five pitchers from their system. they eventually said 'yes' to Gibson. That leads me to believe that the Nationals valued the other four higher.
The Revolution will begin soon...

by Devil Ray Guevara on Jan 24, 2008 1:58 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: 5-year Draft Review
I wouldn't say BEST pitching a prospect as Colin Balester is probably that, but hey getting Gibson was good return-seeings how Dukes is a ticking timebomb and will NEVER "get it" And will continue to dissapoint those who put thier time and money into him.  Zebras don't change their stripes too often...

by nittsallgood on Jan 24, 2008 11:22 AM EST reply actions  

Some nominations
Most interesting of 2004:

Billy Evers - former AAA manager and bench coach Bill Evers' son.  Also, Cale Iorg was son and nephews of major leaguers, now the #2 prospect in Detroit's system per BA.  

Steal of 2002:

Jason Hammel.  Getting a servicable major leaguer and former top 100 prospect out of a 10th rounder is still pretty good.  Hammel had been rated higher than Jaso is now (i.e. once had good trade value, and still could pan out okay).

2005 Most Interesting: Clay Mortenson, now one of the Cardinals' top prospects.  Ike Davis and Wade Miley are also expected to be high picks in next year's draft.  

2005 steal: Andrew Lopez, who the Rays were able to spin into Brendan Harris.  

by Brickhaus on Jan 24, 2008 4:32 PM EST reply actions  

Re: Some nominations
excellent input Brickhaus....all of those are def. good choices I may have looked over, or not even known about
General Manager Manifesto Matt Bishoff

by Matt Bishoff on Jan 24, 2008 4:35 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: Some nominations
"2005 steal: Andrew Lopez, who the Rays were able to spin into Brendan Harris."

That would be Jae Ryu, not Brendan Harris, they traded cash for Brendan.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 24, 2008 4:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: Some nominations
Whoops.  Wasn't thinking.  Still got something of value for an 8th rounder though.  It seems unlikely that anyone from the 6th round or later will ever see major league action with the Rays, so trading someone for someone who did is probably the best deal.  I don't see Wlodarczyk as a prospect really, and there just aren't a lot of high upside guys from late in the draft.  Edwards was probably the big one, but he's been injured pretty consistently since signing.  I guess there's still a slim chance that Matulia turns it around and can become a backup OF type, or that Neil Frontz continues to do well at every level and gets a taste of the majors, but not much else there.

by Brickhaus on Jan 25, 2008 2:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Re: Some nominations
Billy Evers used to coach my AAU team. He got married so he can't coach anymore. Funny how you mentioned him.
My Blog. Check it out if you wish.

by Cory Alexander on Jan 24, 2008 6:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Founded in 2005, DRaysBay is home to, "Progressive statistical analysis and reasoned argument."

Please read our Community Guidelines.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Spts-shelton_small
Which Red Sox Fan Are You?
Spts-shelton_small
The Opportunity of the Century
Ryu_small
This one goes out to all the chicken littles
Small
MLB needs to help bring All-Star game to Bay Area
Small
Who's That in My Old Seats?

Recent FanPosts

Images_small
Turning F**cking Point: Post-Game Reactions
Untitled4_small
The Rays Should 'Retaliate' By Winning
Whelk_small
Rays 7, Sox 4; Immediate Reactions
Images_small
Post-Game (Over)Reactions here
Small
Proposal: Rays play a series in Durham each year
Ag_-_hector_gomez_-_63_small
Visiting Tampa Bay from Colorado
Images_small
Immediate Reactions: Rays Win, But Likely Lose Another Guy

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recent FanShots

Catch For the Ages
Brandon Guyer out for season
Other Side of the Coin: Rodney's Fortune on Called Strikes
Does anyone have any information on Josh Sale? He doubled in a run in his...
Orlando Hudson released
Rays sign Garko to minor league...
Baseball Card Fans...check out my Ebay Auctions
Cameron Seitzer Growing Up Baseball
Longo injury apparently is apparently not good
Hak-Ju Lee, SS, Rays (Double-A Montgomery) Lee had a breakout year in...

+ New FanShot All FanShots >

Friends of the Site

DRB Suggestion Box

Drb4_medium

Yahoo_full_count

Managers

Slowsky__1__small Steve Slowinski

Images_small Jason Collette

Brad_small BWoodrum

Price_small Erik Hahmann

Analysts

Small td32

Rutg_uakjmedjwh9ndzd4lkll_small Imperialism32

100_1952_small MrNegative1

Steak-with-crown_small CBJones

Whelk_small Whelk

Scaled_php_small mr. maniac

Tampa_theatre_small jcmitchell

Me_small John Gregg

Small SGrauer