Baseball America's Top 10 Rays Prospects

by Matt Bishoff on Jan 8, 2008 6:49 PM EST

Baseball America has released its top 10 prospects in the Rays system, and the list looks like this:

1 - Evan Longoria
2 - David Price
3 - Jake McGee
4 - Wade Davis
5 - Reid Brignac
6 - Desmond Jennings
7 - Jeff Niemann
8 - Jeremy Hellickson
9 - Ryan Royster
10 - Chris Mason

I will also post our DRaysBay Staff list, for comparison reasons.

1 - Evan Longoria
2 - David Price
3 - Wade Davis
4 - Jake McGee
5 - Reid Brignac
6 - Desmond Jennings
7 - Jeff Niemann
8 - Jeremy Hellickson
9 - Eduardo Morlan
10 - Fernando Perez

Looks like we weren't too far off!

Update [2008-1-9 13:11:41 by R.J. Anderson]: BEST TOOLS

Best Hitter for Average Evan Longoria
Best Power Hitter Evan Longoria
Best Strike-Zone Discipline John Jaso
Fastest Baserunner Fernando Perez
Best Athlete Desmond Jennings
Best Fastball Jake McGee
Best Curveball Wade Davis
Best Slider David Price
Best Changeup Mitch Talbot
Best Control Chris Mason
Best Defensive Catcher Christian Lopez
Best Defensive Infielder Reid Brignac
Best Infield Arm Jairo de la Rosa
Best Defensive Outfielder Fernando Perez
Best Outfield Arm Justin Ruggiano

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Comments

Holy Hell, My Brain Hurts

When I look and consider prospects for my Top Prospect lists, I look what kind of future value to the team and not always so much on whatever they did in the regular.

This, in my case, is why I put Barnese at 10 and DJ Jones as my #11 prospect.

However, BA has an ever-changing routine for picking top prospects. That, in my mind, is how it's plausible to put Ryan Royster and Chris Mason both in a Top 10 list.

Royster, I can almost see as having a legit case for making a list. However, in my eyes, he was way too old for his league and wasn't nearly as gamebreaking as teammates Jeremy Hellickson and Desmond Jennings were. Royster has immense power, but he was hitting in what was very much considered a "hitters league" against pitchers that were 1-2 full years younger than him.

Mason, and RJ can tell you that I've told him this before, has no future whatsoever on the Rays. He's a 5'11" righty with mediocre "stuff" and pretty decent control, but he's not exactly a "proven" pitcher(who is to say that his "dominant" performance in a pitcher-friendly Southern League wasn't a "fluke"). He is, after all, the same schlub that was hammered in Visalia and less-than-stellar in his post-draft debut in 2005. Well he impress in Durham or regress to the pitcher that got bent over in Cali? That's all undecided, but how on earth is he better than Rollins, Barnese or any other of our "projectable" pitching prospects?

I'm sorry, but I'm hoping someone confronts Ballew(who is the softball master of Baseball America) regarding their placement of Royster and Mason in tomorrow's chat.

by Jacob Larsen on Jan 8, 2008 7:14 PM EST reply actions

Mason

Didn't Callis just say he had the chance for three above average pitches?

Mason was a bit lucky in his xBABIP / BABIP stats, but his K rate went up, walk rate down, homerun rate down - possibly park related - and hit rate went down, I suspect that last bit is part luck and part improved surrounding.

You say no future with the Rays, I still say we should give him a look as a reliever before this season is out, otherwise we'll lose him in the Rule 5 next off-season, we might as well trade him before then, that way we get some type of value back, guys who are thought of in the top 15 in our system have value, particularly pitchers who have the conception of being blocked by the three deities at the top.

I don't know too much about Ballew, so I won't comment there, but I'm more than willing to take Callis' read on Mason and the overall BA rank at face value that they believe he's got a legitimate chance to make any big league team within the next three years.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 8, 2008 7:23 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Mason

In our farm system, how many of our starting pitching prospects don't have the potential to have 3 above-average pitches? I think we both could count at least 5 pitchers right now that could have that potential.

Had they said "Mason has the potential to have 3 "plus" pitches," I'd be impressed and starting to change my tone(seeing as that would put him right behind McGee and Price but above-average and "plus" have different meanings in my eyes.

My problem with Mason is, at the moment, he's either blocking someone better that's behind him or he's the right pitcher at the wrong time. I'm thinking the "right pitcher at the wrong time" myself, but it can go either way. He's a good pitcher, if he can maintain and improve from his 2007 season, but is he better than Sonnanstine and Jackson(2 pitchers that are soon to be phased out, due to "the calvary" coming up from the minors) who are going to be in the rotation first and possibly moved to the 'pen themselves? Doubtful, to me at least. Does he have the veteran presence that Reyes, Percival and Wheeler have? Nope. Does he have the experience in the majors that Dohmann and Balfour have? Not so much. Does he have a cemented place in the future like Salas and soon-to-be Morlan have? Sorry, again.

It's going to be tough for me to forsee us giving him a good look in 2008. We may or may not be contending this upcoming season, I'm hoping we are, but we've got a good amount of our future spots in the pitching staff already cemented by the organization. It's going to be hard for Mason show them otherwise.

by Jacob Larsen on Jan 8, 2008 7:39 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Mason

Apparently Jake McGee doesn't, or at least hasn't quite yet and might not at his current rate.

Above average / plus whatever, how many pitchers with three above average pitchers are stuck in the minors while having good enough control to get by?

As for the pen, you realize that Reyes and Wheeler might be gone after this year, Dohmann and Balfour too, Glover heh, Salas is a year from 30, and Morlan is at least a year away, right?

Since when does veteran presence or major league experience mean anything anyhow, are you telling me Brian Stokes because of his MLB time or Dan Miceli because of the time logged over an okay career should've been placed above someone like Ruddy Lugo two years ago? That's hogwash and a poor excuse to exclude Mason from any consideration.

It doesn't matter if it's tough for you to see it, the truth is after the front three we have two question marks in the rotation - one literal question mark as in who - and outside of presumably Percival and Salas no real guarantees in the bullpen who will return next year.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 8, 2008 7:46 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Mason

I think our definitions of veteran presence are different. There's a vast different between Wheeler, Reyes and Percival and Dan Miceli and Brian Stokes. That's 2 different ends of the spectrum, if you ask me.

As for Salas, he may be a year from 30...but his cutter is one of the best in the majors and he's fairly new to the world of pitching.

McGee has 2 "plus" pitchers(Fastball and curve) and his change is somewhere between "average and above-average"(when he actually throws it). As for him being "stuck", those are the breaks when you're in the best of the best in farm systems. It's very cut-throat in our middle leagues, it apparently chewed Matt Walker up and spit him out. Look at what it did to Jason Hammel, I remember calling him Zito Version 2.0 when he was actually a good prospect. What's he doing right now? Far from a lock to even make a major league roster and possibly soon to be designated for assignment. We've got so much talent now, it's either improve now or be completely ignore and eventually phased out.

by Jacob Larsen on Jan 8, 2008 7:58 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Mason

I'll give you that on the veteran presence, but next time just say "good reliever", you know I can't stand that cliche.

Yes his cutter is nasty, but he needs to walk less and use better designer drugs.

As for Hammel, he's on the big league team more than likely, and I'm not about to write him off just yet - hopefully in the bullpen as a middle reliever and gets a chance to earn his promotions like the Padres do.

We do have talent now, and there could be pleasant surprises like Shields, but we Mason did improve last year, and to simply write him off as a park benefactor is a bit pre-mature, particularly since he's about to be a 23 year old in AAA. Wanna know another 23 year old who made his debut in Durham nearly two full seasons after getting blown up in the Cali league but dominating Montgomery? Check out Shields - nearly identical minor league numbers, but you were high on him entering 2006, right?

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 8, 2008 8:07 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Mason

Apparently BA could count 5 as well - Mason's the 6th pitcher in the list.

And he didn't get in anybody's way (well, maybe Doug Waechter's), nobody got stuck in Vero that I can see. Frankly you could better argue that guys at AAA were in his way.

Nothing wrong with having plenty of starters available. You're not always gonna be so injury free - the Yanks wound up using about 14 starters this season. Seo's gone, Houser's suspended, so he can go up, no problem.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Jan 9, 2008 5:26 AM EST up reply actions

Re: Holy Hell, My Brain Hurts

<I'm sorry, but I'm hoping someone confronts Ballew(who is the softball master of Baseball America) regarding their placement of Royster and Mason in tomorrow's chat.>

If you put your comments in the form of a question, I'll submit it for you.

by ttnorm on Jan 8, 2008 11:47 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Holy Hell, My Brain Hurts

Thank you Mr. Trabek.

Sorry, I just couldn't resist that one.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Jan 9, 2008 4:29 AM EST up reply actions

Re: Holy Hell, My Brain Hurts

The bum Chris Mason apparently has two good pitches in the change and curve, and BA suggested he could "play up" in the bullpen - where else has someone suggested such a thing?

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 9, 2008 1:20 PM EST up reply actions

Oh, I'm really feeling ranty

I realize that Fernando Perez is a full 3 years older than Royster and playing at a higher level, but what kind of disrepect is it that he gets totally ignored by BA's staff? He's a better overall fielder, better at getting on-base and better as a base-runner. He put up an un-"speed demon"-like OPS of over 750, yet because he wasn't mashing taters over the walls of Riverwalk...he's not the "pretty pick"?

Who's more likely to stick at their position?

Who's more likely to see opportunities in the majors?

Vero Beach will be Royster's "reality check", good luck mashing there...tough guy.

by Jacob Larsen on Jan 8, 2008 7:24 PM EST reply actions

Vero

is a hitters park that is very homer friendly.

by Tyler on Jan 8, 2008 8:33 PM EST up reply actions

In fact

Looking at my park factors spreadsheet the park gives up the most homeruns per game of any minor league park. Royster should mash, pitchers will probably struggle.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 8, 2008 8:40 PM EST up reply actions

Re: In fact

I posted an online spreadsheet with all of the 2007 factors as well as the 3yr average in a new diary

visit rotojunkie for your all of your fantasy baseball help

by UCFKnights on Jan 8, 2008 10:25 PM EST up reply actions

Excellent

Thanks, as usual.

Link to diary

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 8, 2008 10:33 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Oh, I'm really feeling ranty

Royster could have a blast in Vero. That place has been very friendly to flyball freeswingers - see Matt Kemp 2004.

visit rotojunkie for your all of your fantasy baseball help

by UCFKnights on Jan 8, 2008 8:41 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Oh, I'm really feeling ranty

I meant Kemp 2005

visit rotojunkie for your all of your fantasy baseball help

by UCFKnights on Jan 8, 2008 8:41 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Oh, I'm really feeling ranty

You are ranty - he might be #11, so no big deal. I'm sure they went for Royster's plus power over Perez's OBP skills and speed, since he also K's a bit and gets caught stealing some. But I'm sure if you asked they wouldn't have them far apart. Did Royster kick your dog or something?

Perhaps ttnorm should ask - phrased as a question - Where do you have F. Perez ranked?

Or just buy their book - or doesn't a site subscription get you access to the full Top 30 prospect list and scouting reports - and find out.

And DJ Jones? 11th round out of HS, hasn't played yet? Don't you think you're jumping the gun a bit there? Apparently the Rays org didn't see him as top 10 yet.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Jan 9, 2008 5:03 AM EST up reply actions

Re: Oh, I'm really feeling ranty

BA doesn't particularly like Perez. He's old for one thing (although a lot of us discount that because he stayed in college all 4 years by choice to get his degree), he doesn't offer much pop and he's relatively raw from one side of the plate (can't remember which side) and doesn't offer much pop from either side, but almost none from the side he's raw at. He's got some work to do to be ML ready and he's almost 25.

Not that I completely agree with it, but that's basically their reasoning for him not to be in the Top-10 or why they don't rate him highly.

by Tyler on Jan 9, 2008 7:25 AM EST up reply actions

Re: Oh, I'm really feeling ranty

DJ was an 11th rounder paid 4th round money. Huge upside as a hitter and another in a long line of former football standouts to be drafted by the Rays.

by Jacob Larsen on Jan 9, 2008 11:56 AM EST up reply actions

Re: Oh, I'm really feeling ranty

I'm not saying he shouldn't ever be there, just perhaps not yet. BA seems to avoid ranking draft picks (or Int'l signings) not 1st round, especially if they didn't play, presumably based on the fact that proximity and some pro performance is at least a bit important.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Jan 9, 2008 3:36 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Baseball America's Top 10 Rays Prospects

do you have the link to BA's list? i can't find it on their site.

by websterjtc on Jan 8, 2008 8:54 PM EST reply actions

Re: Baseball America's Top 10 Rays Prospects

more importantly, a link to the short write-up they have about their top ten prospects.

by websterjtc on Jan 8, 2008 8:54 PM EST reply actions

Re: Baseball America's Top 10 Rays Prospects

It'll be posted tomorrow. The Magazine comes out before the website has it up. That's where this comes from.

by Tyler on Jan 8, 2008 8:57 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Baseball America's Top 10 Rays Prospects

Some of them may be up in the start of the season such as evan longoria at third base allowing aki iwamura to move to second base. Jeff Niemann should be in the rotation out of spring training because the rotation beyond kazmir, shields, and garza are weak so niemann should get one of the two spots open if he is healthy.

by RayOfHope on Jan 9, 2008 12:05 AM EST reply actions

Re: Baseball America's Top 10 Rays Prospects

I don't really care for FP.

Question:
What is with the 100+ K's?

Disclaimer:
I also didn't care for Gathright or the great Jason Renyt Tyner (blasphemy!). True, neither of them had a season on par with FP last year, but both had also made their major league debuts by age 23.

Perhaps it is a personal bias against no-pop hitters. I also ragged on Zobrist.

More disclaiming sure to destroy what little cred I have:
I'm also not a card carrying member of the Sonny cult.

runs

by RATW on Jan 9, 2008 10:05 AM EST reply actions

Re: Baseball America's Top 10 Rays Prospects

As the unofficial Fernando Perez homer, he has always had a lot of K's because he takes a ton of pitches, which also leads to a lot of walks. He even started to show some power this year, hitting 8 HR's in 469 plate appearances, which isn't many, but you have to remember that he only hit 12 in his previous 1502 plate appearances, and he was hitting in one of the top pitcher's leagues in the minors.

Also, many college players have trouble making the jump from A+ to AA, but Perez improved his OPS by .116, while going from a hitter's park to a pitcher's park.

He also began switch-hitting only 2 or 3 years ago, so he can still improve that aspect of his game. He was originally a right-handed hitter, and this year showed average power against left-handers. Against right-handers, he is still adjusting, and his K rate is much higher against them, but so is his walk rate.

So basically, the only thing that concerns me is his CS numbers that have been unnacceptably high the last two years for a guy with his speed. He has also been picked off quite a bit. I'm hoping the baserunning coaches can help his with that. My conclusion is that Fernando Perez' worst case scenario is Juan Pierre with a better OBP, and best case is Ichiro Suzuki with less hits, but more walks, and without the arm.

by raysrule07 on Jan 9, 2008 11:30 AM EST up reply actions

RATW liked Jess Todd

So he still has cred.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 9, 2008 1:21 PM EST up reply actions

Heh..

Yeah, well, I also defended the Will Kline pick and he wasn't even the second best pitcher at Ole Miss.

I'm planning to spend every weekend from March to June attending college baseball games across the South and Texas, so get ready for some more name-dropping annoyance!

by RATW on Jan 9, 2008 5:05 PM EST up reply actions

Excellent

I'm guessing Pedro Alvarez will draw your eyes one or two times?

I wish you could get a chance to see Crow or Matusz up close.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 9, 2008 5:31 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Baseball America's Top 10 Rays Prospects

Brignac is listed as the best defensive infielder. Is that because everyone else is terrible or because he has improved so much that he is now a plus defender? If the latter, that is a very exciting development.

by bobr on Jan 9, 2008 1:50 PM EST reply actions

I'm not sure

Frankly Maniscalco has always been our version of a Cannizaro / Scuttaro type because as you know good defensive infielders with no bats must have their last name end in 'o'. I'd guess it's probably a bit of both.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 9, 2008 1:56 PM EST up reply actions

Pretty sure

Matt retired.

by Tyler on Jan 9, 2008 3:16 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Pretty sure

Wow, I didn't know that, I just glanced at his stats and saw he played last year, but you're probably right.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 9, 2008 3:34 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Pretty sure

I could be wrong, but I thought Tamparays01 from RayBB said he was moving on (he's friends with him), so I guess he'd be the one to confirm it with.

by Tyler on Jan 9, 2008 5:19 PM EST up reply actions

I think you're right

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 9, 2008 5:30 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Baseball America's Top 10 Rays Prospects

That was what jumped out at me too, Bob. My reaction was just like yours, and is likely what kept him as high as he was in the list, given he had a bit of an offensive falloff at the same level as his previous 2nd 1/2. I thought that represented very good news for you guys.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Jan 9, 2008 3:41 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Baseball America's Top 10 Rays Prospects

Not discussed yet who is Jario de la Rosa guy. Strikeout machine, low average, errors galore. If he has a top arm and can't hit, future conversion to pitching on the horizon.

by llraysfan on Jan 9, 2008 6:15 PM EST reply actions

Very good point

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 9, 2008 6:24 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Baseball America's Top 10 Rays Prospects

By the way, in light of this discussion, a site I visit (being a Yanks fan) that covers their AAA club pointed a link to another guys ranking system that I found interesting in that it outlined a 2 track ranking structure based on 1) "upside" and 2) likelihood of achieving that - which was heavily related to how far one was from the majors. Interesting in its explicitness, if nothing else.

The link:

http://emedia.thetimes-tribune.com/Blogs/SWBYankees/tabid/552/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/2478 /Deric-McKameys-Top-15-Yankees-prospects.aspx

The point here isn't to harp on Yankees prospects, it's the ranking methodology outlined. I'm sure McKamey's got or will have a Rays list, but it seems he doesn't share so readily, in the interest of selling his book or site subscriptions.

And while Jake has harped about the relative position of Rays prospects, the Yanks lists outside the top 5 have been all over the board. Sickels, BA, BP, and McKamey have the same top 5 (somewhat different order after Joba), but only 1 other guy's in all 4 top 10's, 2 others in 3 of 4. 9 other guys appeared in one or another. That 4 of the Yanks top 10 in BA last year were hurt for most or all of '07 (as was Sanchez, #3 for Detroit before the Sheff trade, 9 by McK and 11 by BP now) has scrambled things - 3 of those 5 aren't among the 17 in '08 top 10's, though 2 are ready to go and highly regarded relief candidates (JB Cox and Melancon).

Comparing your site poll to BA and BP (Sickels soon to come), the Rays' uniformity is incredible. No need to quibble over 9-12.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Jan 9, 2008 8:16 PM EST reply actions

Re: Baseball America's Top 10 Rays Prospects

I'm guessing Sickels saves the best for last, hopefully not though.

Also as someone on McKamey's site asked, a 9D player seems a bit uh...unnecessary. I'm not too high on Brackman right now, but wouldn't it have been better to rate him as a 7 or 8 with a higher letter grade rather than 9 D, I mean in that sense couldn't you rank most players 9E?

As for fighting over 9-12, are you nuts? Prospect rankings mean everything, everything!

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 9, 2008 8:46 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Baseball America's Top 10 Rays Prospects

Don't think so - he hasn't done SF and STL yet.

Don't disagree with you on the Brackman thing - but I think the ranking approach is correct there. A 9D would be high upside but low probability, meaning far off. That could describe him. I'm still pissed he got a majors deal despite obvious injury problem when Yanks had roster space issues. No wonder they didn't want Boras in the room with A-Rod.

I like McKamey's rank concept, tracking upside (number) and likelihood (letter) as separate factors contributing to the overview. As an example, I might rate McGee a 9C, Davis an 8B. Sort of the same but in a different way. Jake's comment about DJ Jones could make him a 9E type, like DeLeon for the Yanks. High ranked prospects close to the majors are a good bet - look at BA's Top 100 from 2 or 3 years ago and a high %of the top 3rd is performing, but it gets sketchier as you go down the list. High upside prospects in low A have lower probability. Sickels incorporates a similar but composite approach that tends to penalize guys lower in a system for this reason, though less so (see Hellickson, Jennings e.g.). Sickels also cautions that same grades mean basically interchangeable prospects.

And I do understand how you guys live and die by your prospects. Soon you might be able to live and die - rather than just die - over the games. Won't that be nice.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Jan 10, 2008 4:59 PM EST up reply actions