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Trade Coming? THT Preview Up

Maddonbearlo3_tiny by R.J. Anderson on

Per the St. Pete Times:

The Rays are also continuing to seek another outfielder, and those trade talks should intensity in the next couple days.
The Mariners, Dodgers and Angels are among teams with extra outfielders and might be in the market for pitching help. The Rays - in the right situation - could deal one of their young starters, Edwin Jackson or Jason Hammel, who are out of options anyway and could be surplus when Scott Kazmir returns, and then bring back Jeff Niemann to start now.

Amongst the excess outfielders on those teams:
Andre Ethier
Delwyn Young (poor defender)
Reggie Willits
Juan Rivera
Jeremy Reed

We've discussed many of these names, but now the team's interest is official - or at least hinted at.

---

In other Rays related news, The Hardball Times posted their Rays preview today and I was fortunate enough to take part, here's a snippet that I will undoubtedly expand on, but I didn't want to bore the non-Ray fans with Friedman love.


2. Is Andrew Friedman the new Billy Beane?

Perhaps that's a bit hyperbolic--Friedman likely won't have a book written about his approach on market efficiency anytime soon--but you have to admire the job the first-time general manager has done with some of the lowest payrolls even for the Rays' meager history. Friedman has managed to combine talented prospects with a few steady veterans and some breakout candidates to the extent that PECOTA sees the Rays winning 88 games while only "paying" around $2 million per victory.

Again, I'd like to thank Bryan Tsao amongst others for having me. It was fun.

Also check out Tommy Rancel's post on Longoria and AAA.

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Re: Trade Coming? THT Preview Up
Of the names mentioned only Either and Willits interest me at all. They are both OBP machines.

by floridaroar on Mar 27, 2008 4:00 PM EDT   0 recs

Re: Trade Coming? THT Preview Up
I agree, though I like Ethier more because of the extra power and the experience (he has about 2x as many major league AB's as Willits). Unfortunately, I think the Dodgers would be more willing to trade Pierre than Ethier.

by vtcub on Mar 27, 2008 4:36 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Trade Coming? THT Preview Up
If we get Pierre I'd end up stabbing myself to death.

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 27, 2008 5:34 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Trade Coming? THT Preview Up
The problem here is the trade matchups.

Jax and Hammel are OOO regardless where they go. Do the LA's see either of these 2 as needed or better than current in-house options for immediate rotation or pen use worth giving up fairly successful young players for? Personally I doubt it. But the Ridgeway trade surprised me, so maybe you'll get lucky again.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Mar 27, 2008 5:44 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Trade Coming? THT Preview Up
Don't do that. Who would write for you when you're dead?

by floridaroar on Mar 27, 2008 6:01 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Downie?
Then again I'd be dead, why would I care?

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 27, 2008 6:16 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Trade Coming? THT Preview Up
RJ you're everywhere.  I can't keep up.  I read, "bum factor" and thought, that's a Rays fan term.  Who wrote this??

by Tyler on Mar 27, 2008 4:28 PM EDT   0 recs

Re: Trade Coming? THT Preview Up
Pierre would be horrendous for the Rays.    I can't see the Dodgers giving up Ethier for either Hammel or Jackson after the spring he has had, but if the Angels were a smarter organization at maximizing their gain with their talent overflow they'd have to consider moving Willits for either Hammel or Jackson - though I'd think they might want to shoot for someone with a bit higher ceiling.   Would the Rays consider Niemann for Willits at this point given their depth at SP in the minors?

by Stephen Webb on Mar 27, 2008 5:47 PM EDT   0 recs

Re: Trade Coming? THT Preview Up
Nice seeing you around these parts Stephen, and personally I'd rather not deal Niemann for Willits.

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 27, 2008 6:01 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Trade Coming? THT Preview Up
Is this where I say, "Long time browser, first time poster?"  ;)

I figured it was time to branch out a bit.

by Stephen Webb on Mar 27, 2008 6:04 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Trade Coming? THT Preview Up
By the way, PECOTA also has the Yanks and Sox each winning over 100 games. Much as I'd like to believe that, I don't.

Projections plus $1.95 get me a cup of coffee. I'll take Vegas' line - with it's inherent actual financial consequences - anytime. Will you stop looking at THT if they miss on this? Probably not, so no consequence to inaccuracy for them. You should swallow these projections with a more than a grain of salt.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Mar 27, 2008 5:50 PM EDT   0 recs

Re: Trade Coming? THT Preview Up
I'm not sure where your PECOTA rant came from, but I'd agree that projection systems are pretty meaningless.

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 27, 2008 5:57 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Trade Coming? THT Preview Up
Speaking of stats... which do you all feel is the most accurate for player projections: Bill James, CHONE, Marcel, Miner, or ZIPS?

by floridaroar on Mar 27, 2008 6:05 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Trade Coming? THT Preview Up
Typically, I like Bill James - but I've found his projections this season to be a bit subpar and in some case nonsensical.

My personal favorites are BaseballHQ and Rotowire's.  Of course, I'm a fond of my own as well. ;)

by Stephen Webb on Mar 27, 2008 6:12 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Trade Coming? THT Preview Up
By his own he means RotoJunkie. How did I get suckered into plugging that for you?

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 27, 2008 6:14 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Trade Coming? THT Preview Up
Hey...I left the door cracked just a tad.  You're the one that came busting through with the shill. ;)

by Stephen Webb on Mar 27, 2008 6:33 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Trade Coming? THT Preview Up
PECOTA, followed by some mixture of CHONE, ZIPS, Marcel, and then James (far too optimistic on all projections) and the untested Miner.

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 27, 2008 6:13 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Trade Coming? THT Preview Up
PECOTA wasn't an option I gave ;) I've been using http://www.fangraphs.com/ which is about the nicest (free) site I've seen for this sort of thing and PECOTA is not an option there. Are there any other places on the Interweb that are similar but with the addition of PECOTA stats?

by floridaroar on Mar 27, 2008 6:18 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Trade Coming? THT Preview Up
Nope, BP service is the only (legal) way to get PECOTA stats, that or buying their guide.

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 27, 2008 6:23 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Trade Coming? THT Preview Up
PECOTA has Yankees winning 97 and Red Sox winning 91. Last I checked, both of these numbers are under 100.

http://baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

by gavind on Mar 27, 2008 6:07 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Trade Coming? THT Preview Up
Must have picked wrong projection - OOOPS. That's what happens when you type from memory and don't check.

What were PECOTAS for '07? I'll buy they beat Vegas when I see it (though I can't do a comp since I don't have Vegas' numbers). If they did, Vegas would use them - though I'm sure they look at such. And Vegas has an opening line that the collective wisdom (if you could call gamblers wise) expressed in bets moves. As I've said, if you're open to financial risk and you trust PECOTA over Vegas, there an 11.5 game spread in their projections right now. That's a lot of difference.  

by nyyfaninlaaland on Mar 27, 2008 7:41 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Trade Coming? THT Preview Up
Pecota outperformed Vegas in 06...Haven't seen a similar analysis for 07 come out yet.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5609

by GomesSweetGomes on Mar 27, 2008 7:48 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Trade Coming? THT Preview Up
PECOTA typically forecasts better than Vegas.  And if that ceases to be the case I think they stand to lose a lot of subscribers.

by GomesSweetGomes on Mar 27, 2008 6:08 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: Trade Coming? THT Preview Up
Also PECOTA is the brainchild of Baseball Prospectus, not THT.  The fact that THT uses Pecota projections is simply a sign of PECOTA's street cred.  But you are right that THT itself doesnt stand to lose if PECOTA is wrong.

by GomesSweetGomes on Mar 27, 2008 6:10 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

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