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Five For Fighting

Andrew Sonnanstine is yet to get a start and hasn't made an appearance longer than one inning this season; not the case for the other four contestants in the running for the final two rotation slots. Jason Hammel will start tomorrow, J.P. Howell has came out striking out everyone while not walking the house (5:1 in 2.2 IP), Jeff Niemann toiled through one inning of work on Sunday (33 pitches), and before today's game was called Edwin Jackson had thrown 5 innings of scoreless ball this spring with five hits, three strikeouts, and no walks.

What does this mean for Sonnanstine? The team has suggested he could be a reliever, and while that certainly strengthens the bullpen is it worth the shot the rotation could take? After all, most of us are expecting Sonnanstine to perform modestly well this year; perhaps 185 innings, maybe more, a sub 4.5 ERA with good K:BB numbers doesn't seem out of the question for the usual tough-luck starter last season.

Sonnanstine's approach and different arm slots during delivery make him a hassle to adjust to early on for hitters. His first time facing a batter in a game Sonnanstine's OPS against was .697, the second jumps to .882.  His per innings splits suggest that he's capable of retiring all bats - particularly the weakest of the lineup given a .581 OPS against in the third - the first time through, but begins to struggle upon the lineup flipping.

Let's assume Sonnanstine is headed for the relief corps - pure conjecture on my part - that leaves the Rays with Howell, Hammel, and Jackson battling for two spots with the latter two out of options. The fortunate thing; and unfortunate thing for the said trio is that each was unlucky last season.

While some have a different view on what makes a pitcher lucky or unlucky, including Eric Seidman who details his method in an upcoming book, I judge luck based on balls in play average while taking into account the balls in play data.

The points I wanted to emphasis are in yellow; essentially Howell figures to benefit the most from our improved ground defense and that HR rate tells us either when he hangs them they bang them or that he's simply a bit unlucky from last year. Each had a few hits go against them, and while there's no guarantee that will definitively revert I can't see each of them replicating that type of bad luck again. The grouping also needs to improve on their K:BB rates, and if they can do so I see no reason why the Rays can't have five league average to above average starters.

Now that I've spent 500 words based on five (four) spring training games and the ultimately meaningless schedule of starters I think I'll end this by saying that while I may dislike the back end of our bullpen - mainly just Glover - I've got a strange sense of optimism that we'll find ourselves with a good season or two from an unexpected starter, one who's name might just be Sonnanstine.

0 recs  |  Comment 19 comments

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Re: Five For Fighting
I've been expecting a strong season or two from Sonny, after which I figure he would be traded for a reliever or whatever defensive player we may need.  I don't see him being a long term starter for the Rays, but I think he is a more than adequate stop-gap until the more highly touted guys make their way up through the system.

On another note...do we think that Edwin Jackson will be on the team come opening day?  I keep hearing that he will be a Mariner.

by usfraysfan on Mar 4, 2008 6:41 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Five For Fighting
I haven't heard anything, but the M's don't really seem to need Edwin or any other starting pitchers anymore, unless the Rays feel like simply dumping him for Rob Johnson or whomever the new offer is.

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 4, 2008 7:05 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Five For Fighting
After all of this where does Niemann go??  While I figure he would go back to Durham I think he has potential as a future closer.

by usfraysfan on Mar 4, 2008 9:35 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Durham and then our pen hopefully
Hey man, Seth wasn't a bad closer. He busted his tail to help the team out... He just got a bad cut... probably rushed to quick to the majors. Don't forget about Seth betcha he is going to put it together and be awesome...
Viva Los RAYniacs!

by thebaddancingraysfan on Mar 4, 2008 10:18 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Durham and then our pen hopefully
Don't get me wrong, I liked him, too. I just remember too many 30 pitch 9th innings... Electric stuff though!

by gavind on Mar 4, 2008 11:05 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Five For Fighting
I have become a very big fan of Sonnanstine. And I think he is the sort of pitcher who can be very underappreciated. He does not look like a huge strikeout pitcher, but he strikes people out at a good rate. He seems like a nibbler, but he rarely walks anyone. From afar, he doesn't seem to have any "knock em dead" pitch, but every one moves and every one seems to have a purpose.

My hope is he becomes a fixture in the rotation, and I think he can survive the influx of more heralded talent as a reliable back of the rotation pitcher. It is comforting to know that there is always the healthy, 200+ inning pitcher who will give you better than league average work year in and year out in the #4 or 5 slot and periodically be a big winner. It may allow the team to cash in some of its other more spectacular pitching talent for other important needs, confident that they have a solid pitcher on board.

But I can also see the wisdom of trying him in the bullpen, perhaps in a Ramiro Mendoza type role. Mendoza proved to be exceptionally valuable on the Yankee championship teams for his flexibility and capacity to relieve and start effectively. Given his apparent durability and strikeout ability as well as his deception and the Rays' abundance of high ceiling starters, the bullpen may be where he is most valuable to us.

by bobr on Mar 4, 2008 7:25 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Five For Fighting
E Jax is putting it together. He's the man.

by floridaroar on Mar 4, 2008 8:38 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Five For Fighting
If I had to guess who the last two would be IMO it should be Jackson and Sonny. Jackson mainly since to me, he's beginning to look like he's figuring things out on the mound and also that he's out of options (right?). In terms of Sonny, I've compared his stats to Shields stats (only a year earlier) in both their last year in the minors and their first years in the majors and feel like there are a few similarities.

let me know what you think . . .

Sonny - http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?t=t_ibp&did=milb&cid=421&y=2006
http://tampabay.rays.mlb.com/stats/individual_stats_player.jsp?playerID=458567&statType=2

Shields - http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?y=2005&t=t_ibp&did=milb&cid=421
http://tampabay.rays.mlb.com/stats/individual_stats_player.jsp?playerID=448306&statType=2

by tropbeachbum on Mar 4, 2008 8:45 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Five For Fighting
We've went over the Shields / Sonny statistical similarities in the past, in fact they extend to the trend areas like BABIP as well.

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 4, 2008 9:08 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Five For Fighting
Howell should go to the pen. Let Sonny and Jax play in the rotation. I think Sonny will eventually go to the pen, but right now he gives us our best chance to win...
Viva Los RAYniacs!

by thebaddancingraysfan on Mar 4, 2008 10:17 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Five For Fighting
I dont necessarily see Sonny is a sub 4.2 era guy next year with 180 innings. Stats schmats, I think Niemann and Jackson are better options in the rotation and Sonny is a great option in the bullpen. I could see Sonny being a solid 4/5 starter this year, but I dont buy into all these supposed "bad luck stats" Sonny had last year. I like to rely on what I see out of him. He has potential, but he lacked control. I'm definitely willing to keep looking at him as a SP candidate but I just think this rotation is better suited to have Jackson and Niemann

Sonny would be the best long reliever candidate on the team IMO. Im not big on Howell, I dont see many reasons to keep giving him so many looks. He is a lefty, true, but he gets hit by both lefties and righties. Give me Balfour, Salas, Wheeler, Reyes, Sonny, Miller and Percival and probably have Glover and maybe Dohmann or Hammel in line before him to be called up

by blazinrayz on Mar 5, 2008 2:15 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Five For Fighting
I don't understand the statement that he lacked control. He has walked fewer than 2/9 IP both in the minors and the majors.

by bobr on Mar 5, 2008 7:50 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

From what I've seen
Sonny has the best control of any Rays' pitcher not named James Shields. In fact Sonny's MLB K:BB ratio of 3.73 is the best out of the four options.

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 5, 2008 12:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Five For Fighting
The guy throws strikes.  As such, he should be the biggest beneficiary of our improved defense.  IMO he would be an above average #5 and most likely an average #4.  P/fx had him at 6 pitches that he can control, plus his various arm angles, and toughness on the mound make him very intriguing.  He has won at every level with low ERA's and high K:BB.  Sure he doesn't have the ched like McGee or the curve like Davis, but he knows how to pitch.  Those guys may get it over time, but with this lineup I'll take the guy that can/will throw strikes any day of the week.  

by Sandy Kazmir on Mar 5, 2008 9:56 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

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