Bill James: David Ortiz Shift Doesn't Work

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 8, 2008 12:10 PM EST

So I stumbled across the Bill James interview at Time (hat tip Tango) and found this nugget:

You use some colorful language in the book, making the reams of statistical information much more reader-friendly. At one point, you basically compare teams that use the shift against Boston Red Sox star David Ortiz to "Polocks hunting landmines." You say they're "dumb." Though you are quick to point out that there are only "three Polish guys" who are "offended by Polock jokes." Why push the envelope?

James: Everybody who is my age, or everybody who is over 30, knows that joke. I mean, I'm not sure I get the point of the over-shift against David Ortiz. It helps you if he hits a ground ball, but if the bomb goes off, you can put those infielders anywhere you want to, it doesn't really do you any good. The damage that David does comes when he hits the ball 380 feet. It really does not matter much where you put your infielders when that happens.

I have tremendous respect for James and his work, but this seems a little weak. What he's saying is by implementing the Ortiz shift the team is only aided if Ortiz hits a groundball, if he hits a homerun the shift does no good. Simply put that's common sense. Of course if Ortiz hits a homerun any defensive alignment is useless, but here's the thing; Ortiz only hits homeruns 16% of the time and he makes an out 62% of his at-bats, suggesting there is value in playing the shift.

This is a very small sample size, but take a look at Ortiz' 2007 hit chart at the Trop; nine groundouts, eight into the shift, one homerun. In 2006 he hit seven homers and hit into the shift eight times. Checking out Ortiz career Fenway numbers he's grounded out over 300 times, to the naked eye it appears to be split 60:40 if not more on groundballs hit to the right side. BR has Ortiz for 389 outs to the second baseman over his career, 313 to the first baseman, 183 to the shortstop, and 129 to third.

Does the shift prevent against Ortiz' homering? Of course not, and it's not the perfect solution to face Ortiz, however his balls in play data suggest that if Ortiz is going to make an out it's going to be beneficial to play the shift, as seen below.

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Re: Bill James: David Ortiz Shift Doesn't Work

So funny Pronk cant hit the ball to the left side of the field

General Manager Manifesto Matt Bishoff

by Matt Bishoff on Mar 8, 2008 12:18 PM EST reply actions

Re: Bill James: David Ortiz Shift Doesn't Work

People, the guy works for the BoSox. Next, he's going to argue that other teams are stupid to field an outfield against Manny Ramirez since it won't do any good if he hits it 400 feet, either. And why bother putting out a defense at all when Me, I mean, Youkilis is up to bat since he walks so often, etc. etc.

by zengator on Mar 8, 2008 12:38 PM EST reply actions

Re: Bill James: David Ortiz Shift Doesn't Work

I know, but I'd like to think James wouldn't let that get in the way of his work.

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 8, 2008 12:40 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Bill James: David Ortiz Shift Doesn't Work

I also think teams are stupid that pitch to Carl Crawford. They should just let hime walk on over to second base. I mean you know he's gonna beat out an infield hit and then steal second! God!

Not WANTING teams to put a shift on Ortiz, and making a credible argument that teams shouldn't put a shift on Ortiz are two totally different things. That we get. Thanks Bill James.

by pcbredemeier on Mar 8, 2008 12:56 PM EST reply actions

Re: Bill James: David Ortiz Shift Doesn't Work

Thanks Bill James...we needed a study to tell us the shift doesn't defend homeruns...

i think his boston job got in the way

by websterjtc on Mar 8, 2008 4:00 PM EST reply actions

Re: Bill James: David Ortiz Shift Doesn't Work

Another question. How often does he hit fly balls that are caught because of the extra outfielder? And does he ever intentionally try to go the other way, thus sapping his power and making him less dangerous?

I have enormous respect for James, and do not think his Red Sox connection has led him to say something silly, but I do think he is reaching for this one. It may be his natural iconoclasm that leads him to venture into the deep end sometimes without his water wings.

by bobr on Mar 8, 2008 4:07 PM EST reply actions

Re: Bill James: David Ortiz Shift Doesn't Work

Good job with the pic. Good try, even though its Hafner, love the effort!

Joe

by joedobr on Mar 8, 2008 4:53 PM EST reply actions

Re: Bill James: David Ortiz Shift Doesn't Work

I think that James comments refer to an infield overshift and not the 3-4.

by ttnorm on Mar 8, 2008 5:56 PM EST reply actions

Even then

The shift works.

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 8, 2008 6:01 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Bill James: David Ortiz Shift Doesn't Work

is that the pronk shift in the picture?

is the shift they do for pronk the same they do for ortiz?

by websterjtc on Mar 8, 2008 6:07 PM EST reply actions

Re: Bill James: David Ortiz Shift Doesn't Work

It is the Pronk shift, and I believe they've ran one of those at Ortiz, if not the only other shift I can think of has the third baseman standing where the shortstop would.

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 8, 2008 6:25 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Bill James: David Ortiz Shift Doesn't Work

Rather than left field^

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 8, 2008 6:25 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Bill James: David Ortiz Shift Doesn't Work

Totally from observations while attending games (with no statistical analysis), I personally do not like the extreme nature of Madden's shift. With Ortiz and others, I have observed too many groundball basehits right where the second baseman vacated for the extreme shift.

Also I do not like the outfield with four outfielders. If Ortiz, et al has a penchhnt to hitting flyballs to right, then why have 2 defensive outfielders in left/left center field (including one who is used to playing on dirt)?

I say play Ortiz to pull in the more traditional manner with the 3rd baseeman at about the SS position, the SS positioned slightly to the fist base side of second and the second baseman pulled into the hole. The outfield should just be pulled around as is traditional for a pull hitter.

Madden's shift has too many players positioned too far from their normal positions.

by bobbyray1 on Mar 8, 2008 9:24 PM EST reply actions

Re: Bill James: David Ortiz Shift Doesn't Work

My biggest deal with Madden's shift on Ortiz is the local media's infatuation with it. The shift has been around for decades and the Rays are hardly the only team to use it specifically against Ortiz.

I remember in 2006 doing the math, and like James I found out Ortiz got enough hits (mostly home runs) to take a bit of the breeze out of the sails. The shift is played to get a batter to intentionally change his style of play to avoid getting an out. When you don't have the pitchers who are good enough to make the pitches to get the batter to get out more often than on base, the shift is pointless. Hopefully the Rays have the arms to do that this season.

I'd be interested in a team-by-team breakdown of the shift vs. Ortiz. I wouldn't be surprised if Ortiz's best numbers are against teams that haven't found the postseason lately.

Matt Sammon, draysbay columnist and professional bump on a log

by Matt Sammon on Mar 9, 2008 5:37 PM EDT reply actions