Before you even start to think this is a Sonnanstine bashing post, let's be clear that it is not. What it does have to do with is that, recently I got to thinking that this year, more then last, i feel like he tends to give up a few runs real early in the game, then settle down to pitch well the rest of his outing. I feel like we've seen a lot of 2 or 3 run 1st, 2nd, and 3rd innings, then 0's through 6 or 7, so i decided to take a look at the numbers.

Now, one of the reasons there were so many people calling for Sonnanstine to be moved to the bullpen, including myself, was that the stats bared out that he was better the first time through the line-up, and got hurt the second time through. Which in 2007, was true. But, that trend seems to have reversed itself this year, and I just cannot figure out why. That doesn't seem like a trend that should have completely reversed unless something changed with the way the pitcher is pitching. I didn't bring it up earlier in the season, because i really didn't feel there was a large enough sample size. But now with 84 innings on the year, it seems there is enough data to be relevant.

Lets take a look at some numbers:

2007:

                    BA   OBP   SLG   OPS
1st. Inning    .244  .333  .397  .731
2nd Inning    .250  .256  .425  .681
3rd Inning     .221  .256  .325  .581
4th Inning     .398  .429  .673 1.102 
5th Inning     .321  .326  .583  .909
6th Inning     .310  .375  .414  .789

Times Facing Opp. in Game

                  BA   OBP   SLG   OPS
1st PA in G   .249  .297  .400  .697
2nd PA in G     .321  .347  .535  .882

2008:

                    BA   OBP   SLG   OPS
1st. Inning    .278  .298  .519  .817
2nd Inning    .255  .255  .382  .636
3rd Inning     .449  .452  .609 1.061
4th Inning     .200  .268  .340  .608 
5th Inning     .327  .339  .600  .939
6th Inning     .351  .368  .486  .855

Times Facing Opp. in Game

                  BA   OBP   SLG   OPS
1st PA in G   .325  .338  .516  .854
2nd PA in G     .296  .323  .426  .749

Now looking at the numbers, there's an obvious disparity. In 2007 Sonnanstine seemed to sail through the first time he faced a batter, and consequently do well through the first 3 innings, with the 3rd inning being his best, as you would assume it would be, considering he would most likely be facing the bottom of the order. In 2008, almost the exact opposite is seen, as he gets touched up the first time through the order, and consequently, has a very rough 3rd inning, assuming that he's probably at that point facing the top of the order having given up more hits along the way then in 2007.

These points not withstanding, he is obviously a better pitcher in 2008 then in 2007. His ERA is 1 point lower, his ERA+ is 10 points higher, there's no arguing he's better this year then last year. I guess what I'm trying to figure out here is:

1. Why this reversal?
2. Will it hurt him in the long run?
3. There was another rays blog that did a nice piece on how he's using his arm angles for success vs when he's not having success, could this have something to do with it?
4. Is he still a candidate for the pen?
5. Does it really matter? Outside the obvious that teams would rather be ahead early in the game then having to come from behind, if the end results are essentially better, does it really matter how we get there?

So remember, this is not a Sonnanstine bashing post. I simply noticed a pattern, explored that, found some obvious changes, and decided to ask you all what you thought. Let's be constructive here.

From the Tribune's Marc Lancaster:

Following the game, the Rays optioned Justin Ruggiano back to Durham to open a spot for Matt Garza coming off the disabled list tomorrow.

Link 

I will say, i liked having Ruggiano up here. but with Gross in the mix, it seems that whoever was that last outfielder was only going to get very minimal AB's, and I have to agree when Maddon says:

"We haven’t had much of an opportunity to use him. We’re kind of covered in the outfield right now, so we primarily wanted him to get more at-bats and sent him back to do that."

Haynes may not fit in with our long term team plan, but i can see the wisdom in sending Ruggiano back to continue his development.

Major Announcement Coming Today
Posted By Carter Gaddis at Apr 18, 2008 at 09:59 AM
Updated Apr 18, 2008 at 10:05 AM

 

The Rays have scheduled a “major” announcement by executive vice president Andrew Friedman for today at 1 p.m. at Tropicana Field.

No word yet on the nature of the announcement. It could be a free agent signing or a contract extension for a player or Manager Joe Maddon, but that’s only conjecture at this point.

Check back for details soon. 

 

http://www.tboblogs.com/index.php/sports/comments/major-announcement-coming-today/

 

 

what could it be???? Come on Barry Bonds!!!!!!!

Maybe someone can help me understand what exactly is wrong with Garza, because at it stands now, I really do not see how he is "rehabbing".

Let's start with where I get confused. So, as Garza has stated, this is a problem, they call it Radial Nerve Irritation, that goes back to the later half of the season last year with the Twins. It seems that it has recently been flaring up on him, causing him some significant discomfort, and interfering with his ability to pitch well. That all makes sense to me. What really does not is how he is rehabbing.

Now, if this is a problem that he had last year with the Twins, and all that it is is irritation, then I have to conclude from the rehab program we have him on, that just taking things easy for a couple weeks is sufficient enough to treat and heal the injury. If that is the case, then I have to wonder why this injury did not heal over the off-season, when he rested for a couple months straight.

Where is get confused, is he got hurt here, and only took a day or two off before he started tossing the ball again. Now how is this rehab, and months worth of rest is not? Is there a chance that this will just keep acting up over and over again?

Something just does not make sense to me. Either his story that it started last year, the diagnosis, or the rehab. They all do not fit together neatly, something is off. If anyone has a medical theory, or some further explanation, I would love to hear it.

On Other Notes:

Really good story on Hellickson on BA today: http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=889

I would love to see this kid really live up to what it seems he can do.

 

Not to trash any member of the rays, but I have little-to-no faith in Doh'mann being a dependable major league pitcher, Glover is average, Miller SHOULD be a 1 batter specialist (not a full inning guy), and Reyes obviously wears down as the year goes on. Now, I am not saying that things won't go swimmingly, but Thayer seems he could be a very good presence out of the pen, and really add a youthful arm. He spent most of last year in AA and pretty much dominated, ERA of 2.26 and a whip just at 1.01. Then he moves to AAA , and though he only got 9 innings in, he lowered his whip to .96. This is a guy with a minor league line of 2.95 bb/9, 9.32 k/9, and a whip of 1.11, with an ERA of 2.24. He's only pitched 2.2 innings this year, but so far has been stellar.

So I ask, how long will it be until we see this guy? I know we have a decent bullpen, but Miller/Dohmann/Glover/ hell even Reyes, all look like just major league average pitchers, Thayer seems like he has a chance to be a real shut down guy for us.

 

 

 

 

Does anyone have any insight for us non-BA subscribers? I know certain subscriber info can't be posted, but I'd love to know what they had to say about him and the Rays. Any insight would be appreciated.....................................
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ok, not to rant and rave, but I am actually semi-upset about the handling of our OF situation. don't get me wrong, i think that front office is doing a fine team overhauling this team, putting us in a situation to be perennial winners. but, as of right now, we have no legitimate right fielder, not a single one. sure, we have a bunch of "right fielders", but no one should should be out there on any sort of consistent basis. at one point we have ridiculous depth out there, and i know we still have some, but most isn't major league ready, leaving us in the situation we are in now. now, you might say, well we had Rocco. yes, we did, we always have, but if i thought for one minute that the front office was hinging their plans on having Rocco in RF, then i would be terribly disappointed in their lack of realistic foresight. no, but i believe they knew the same thing we all did, that Rocco was never a sure thing, and that plans need to be made to take that into account.

but instead, what do we do? we don't protect Josh Hamilton, which though at the time may have seemed like not a big deal, this is a man we put millions  of dollars and years and years and years of investment into, and just as he was really getting his stuff together, we fail to protect him? and now he's  (i know spring training stats don't mean much, but the guy is for real)hitting over .500, has the most RBI's amongst all hitters, and an slugging % over 1. amazing. he might become what we always thought he would become, and looking back it seems like a major major gaffe to not protect him.

secondly, we trade Delmon Young, which was fine with me, b/c at the time i assumed we had a possibly healthy Rocco, and if not then a high-ceiling Dukes waiting to take over.

but then we trade Dukes, which was probably a good move, he probably never would have gotten his life back together here in Tampa, and we got good value in return.

which leaves us with Rocco, who we now know, and probably always knew, even if we tried to convince ourselves that this was the year for him, was never going to play, or at least not play often. now we're down to a platoon of poor fielders and specialty hitters, and have a huge gaping hole not only in our lineup, but in our field.

what i'm getting at is this. trading Young and Dukes were good moves, they probably had to be done. but it's the move we didn't make that could really haunt us now, as all it would have taken was a small sacrifice, which given the sacrafice the team already made to him would seem like a forgone conclusion, for a possible large reward, but we didn't do it.

and now, we're stuck in the situation we are in, all b/c we lacked the most basic and obvious foresight.

What's with this guy? Every spring training he looks like he's a .300 hitter, then he can't hit the broad side of a barn during the regular season.

I know it's only been 6 games so far, but he's at 6-14, good for a .400 AVG. Yes, it's a small sample size, but he is currently tops on the team. Last year he hit .345 in spring training, then proceeded to quickly fail miserable in the bigs. Send him back down, and he's a hitting machine again.

What's the deal with this guy? Can he hit, or not?

Regarding Blanton:

    * One Rosenthal source suggests a 50/50 chance Blanton is traded (presumably before the season starts).
    * Two teams are showing significant interest.  Rosenthal believes the Reds are one, and the Twins or Rays could be another."

This guy is only 28, and posted a sub 4 ERA last year. He's not top 3, imo, but would pretty much be guaranteed a spot in the rotation.

Question is, who would we trade for him? What would it mean for the rotation/pen?

R.J.: a few things, Blanton would be under team control through 2010, makes 3.7 mil this year, and has a 4.66 ERA away from that large Oakland park.