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Bluejayperched

hugo

Mar 29, 2008 Oct 10, 2008 369 7018

28-year old father, lawyer for Uncle Sam, and singer/guitarist based in Washington D.C. Thanks for stopping by Bluebird Banter!

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Republished: Final 2008 Report Card, Starting Pitchers

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Roy Halladay:  What more needs be said?  Doc was incredible, having one of his best seasons.  246 innings of 155 ERA+ (more than 50% better than the average pitcher in the league), going the distance 9 times, and striking out a whopping 206 while walking only 39.  Doc was just dominant, with a 1.053 WHIP, and lead the league in Whip, complete games, shutouts, and strkeouts to walk ratio, while finishing second in ERA.  That he lost 11 games can only be blamed on the Jays lousy offense, as he gave up 3 or less runs in 6 of the 11 losses.  Find me another pitcher who gave up 3 or less runs in more than half the games he lost.  Okay, find one who's not on the Jays.  He once again anchored the pitching staff and seemed to rediscover his strikeout stuff, while still getting just as many ground balls.  Masterful.  The only concern is that he was throwing less fastballs and sinkers and more cutters this season, and I hope that doesn't come back next season.  A+

A.J. Burnett:  Despite what you may have heard, it hasn't been a career year for A.J., except perhaps in one sense:  his health.  A.J. pitched the most innings of his career, and put together a quality season, leading the league in strikeouts (231) and strikeouts per 9 innings.  A.J. gave up a few too many baserunners, though, with 86 walks and 211 hits (which isn't a lot at all for his 221 innings, but A.J. is usually a lot more hit stingy).  For all the ink that's been spilled, A.J. wasn't all that much better than a league average pitcher this season (106 ERA+) but he was good enough and healthy enough to win 18 games, which all but assures he will opt out of his contract and become a free agent, though the Jays have made an honest effort to resign him.  In A.J.'s defense, he seems to have gotten rather hit unlucky (a .328 BABIP accompanying a big reduction in his HR rate is a bit tough to swallow) and his peripherals were as good as they've ever been, with a Fielding Independent ERA a nice 3.45.  B+

Dustin McGowan:  McGowan only made 19 starts before a labrum injury ended his season and cast his career into doubt.  Dusty was almost exactly league average (ERA+ of 99), but mostly he was just inconsistent in his results, though his peripherals weren't bad.  He also put up a FIP lower than his ERA, at 3.81 (weird that he and A.J. had poor FIP/ERA results when the Jays defense is so good), and was unlucky both with hits and runners left on base, though not ridiculously so.  McGowan's K numbers were down, and he was also giving up more fly balls and less ground balls, but it's hard to judge him too harshly since he really only pitched half a year and it's not clear whether the injury affected his performance (he had four mediorcre starts in a row before getting hurt).  A healthy McGowan for half the season next year would be a big boost for the team.   C+ but Incomplete

Shaun Marcum:  Marcum had a strange year.  For most of the season, he was lights-out when he pitched, finishing with a 127 ERA+ and generally serving as the Jays de facto number 2 starter when A.J. was scuffling.  It wasn't luck either, as Shaun posted excellent peripheral numbers (7.31 K/9, 2.97 BB/9) and improved his home run rate measurably, which was great to see.  Marcum's 1.16 WHIP probably was helped by some luck with batted balls, since his FIP was only about league average.  Marcum hit the DL with some elbow issues, and his return seemed rushed by the Jays.  He had a few good starts, and then after one mediocre start against Boston, he was suddenly sent down to AAA.  Reports were that the Jays had slowed down Marcum's delivery temporarily with the goal of improving the consistency of his mechanics and command.  Anyway, Marcum was great when he returned, with lights out starts against the Rays and the White Sox.  And then, the sadness.  TJ and the best we and Shaun can do is hope for 2010.  I love the guy and can't wait to see him pitch again - he's a blast to watch as he drops any pitch at any count and gets strikeouts despite having a fastball that rarely gets above 90.  A-

Jesse Litsch:  I'm not sure what people expected of Jesse Litsch, who came out of nowhere last season, but I think it's fair to say that he exceeded almost everyone's expectations.  Litsch posted a 13-9 record and a very fine 3.58 ERA.  Even more impressively, Litsch increased his strikeouts (by a whole strikeout per 9 innings), decreased his walks (ditto) from 2007 and did it all without too much luck on balls in play (though he certainly was helped by the Jays fine defense).  A 120 ERA+ from a second-year, 23 year old pitcher is very impressive, and Litsch also seems quite durable, which is great for a rotation with so many question marks going into 2009.  Litsch will have a lock on a rotation spot going into 2009, and there's no question but that he deserves it.  Really, the only blip on his season was a few bad starts, which the Jays felt necessitated a short trip to AAA, and Litsch was great upon his return.  Jesse is the kind of pitcher who will have to prove himself again and again, but so far, so good.  A-

David Purcey:  Purcey's overall numbers are not very impressive, but he showed flashes of briliance in 12 starts this season, with a couple of clunkers in there too.  Purcey's K numbers (better than 8 per 9 innings) are excellent for a starter but he walked too many (4 per 9) and those kind of walk numbers will kill you unless you are truly dominant, which David wasn't.  On the bright side, his FIP was almost a run better than his ERA, so he was a little unlucky with runners left on and the like.  Indeed, just pitching to his FIP this season would make him an acceptable, though not great, 5th starter.  However, this was Purcey's first taste of the bigs, and though he's not a kid, pitchers develop at different times.  It's nice to have a lefty in the rotation, and if Purcey can cut down on his walks, he certainly can contribute.  The Jays may be forced to hand Purcey a rotation spot next season, so let's hope he's ready.  C-

Scott Richmond:  Richmond only started 5 games, but he may be a contributor next season so let's take a look, with the usual small sample size caveats.  Richmond started 5 games, and never stunk up the place, which I actually find quite impressive for a rookie pitcher, and his overall numbers were quite good (108 ERA+).  Richmond's last two seasons were his best, even throwing a shutout in his last start (ok, rain-shortened, but still an impressive showing).  Richmond's walk numbers were absurdly low (.67/9 innings, and he was nowhere near that stingy in the minors) so that's  not going to continue, but you have to love a 10/1 K/BB ratio, even Doc didn't manage that.  Richmond wasn't at all lucky on batted balls, so there's room for improvement in that area that could partially offset the increase in walks that would be expected.  Richmond basically throws fastballs and sliders (his fastball has some pop and his slider has a nice tight break), with the occasional changeup and the very occasional curve, so if he doesn't work out in the rotation I think he could be a very good late-inning righty reliever with that combo, coupled with his proclivity for pounding the strike zone. Incomplete, but if I had to give a grade, it'd be a solid B. 

John Parrish actually started one more game than Richmond, but since he was good as a reliver and stunk as a starter, and certainly doesn't fit into the Jays long-term rotation plans, I'll do him a favor and evaluate him there.  Stay tuned for the pen and for management, and of course post your comments and criticisms below!

2 comments | 1 recs | Digg!

I'm Coming Home, Via Chicago: Recap, Day 4 of Playoffs

Well, might as well make it an even hundred. 

Los Angeles Dodgers 3, Chicago Cubs 1: The Cubs once again failed to advance as Hiroki Kuroda, James Loney (fast becoming my favourite non-Jay player not named Ichiro) and the Dodgers swept the Cubs out of the ALDS.  Russell Martin, Manny Ramirez, and Rafael Furcal also had excellent series for the Blues, who enjoyed great starting pitching from Derek Lowe, Chad Billingsley, and Kuroda as well as excellent work out of the bullpen (with the exception of Takashi Saito). Great starting pitching, shutdown bullpen work, and fantastic hitting out of the whole top half of the lineup - Now that's how you win a DS.  Reed Johnson, who by the way, ended the season with an OPS 1 point lower than Joe Inglett (.779) never got into the series, unfortunately.

Milwaukee 4, Philadelphia 1:  The Brewers did their best to make this a series by staving off elimination behind a good performance from ex-Jay David Bush (good thing he didn't have to face an AL East team since we all know he's not an AL East pitcher (not that I'm complaining about the Overbay trade, since it was an excellent trade for the Jays - I just found that to be a pointless post-hoc potshot by J.P.))  The ageless one, Jamie Moyer, didn't have a great start, and the bullpen did not perfom well either for the Phils.  Matt Stairs pinch-hit but unsuccessfully, while former Jay Jayson Werth continued to have a great series with two more hits.  Mike Cameron and Bill Hall, the Brew Crew's 1-2 hitters, each got on base 3 times, which is a good way to win a game.  J.J. Hardy was the big stick man with 3 hits, scoring and driving in a run.  Bluebird Banter's other Brewer dream target, Prince Fielder, had a sacrifice fly and walked.  Pat Burrell is still hitless in the series (though with 2 bases on balls), not helping his value on the market.  Game 4 between the two teams doesn't feature an exciting playoff pitching matchup with Cupcakes Blanton facing off against Clone Warrior Jeff Suppan.

2 comments | 0 recs

Day 3 of Playoffs Recap

Yesterday was a good day for teams that won their first ALDS game, as the Rays and Red Sox went 2-0 up on their ALDS foes.  Chicago at least is going home, but the Angels seem pretty much done. 

Tampa Bay 6, Chicago 2:  Tampa beat Chicago behind a good start from Scott Kazmir and solid work from it's bullpen.  Former Bluebird Banter target Akinori Iwamura hit a 2-run home run, Dioner Navarro and Carl Crawford had good days at the plate, B.J. Upton tripled and scored, and Rocco Baldelli chipped in with an RBI single. Toronto media favourite Orlando Cabrera did do a nice job leading off for the Chi Sox, with 2 hits in 4 appearances.  Matt Garza will face John Danks in game 3 on Sunday with the Sox facing elimination. 

Boston 7, Los Angeles of Anaheim 5:  It has been years and I still cannot get over how stupid that name is.  Ervin Santana gave up 4 runs in the first inning to put Boston out on top, but the Angels fought back to tie this game at 5 going into the 9th inning.  Enter K-Rod, perhaps having one of the most overrated seasons for a closer of all time.  J.D. Drew hit a 2-run bomb, Papelbon shut down the Angels, and the Sox won again. Boston and the Angels will also play their game 3 on Sunday with the Halos facing elimination and turning to Joe Saunders.  Josh Beckett pitches for the Sox.

8 comments | 0 recs

Return of the Grievous Angel

Hi, everyone. I apologize for being awol for a while - the craziest thing happened. I cut myself while cooking way back last Monday, and somehow the cut got infected with what turned out to be MRSA, a nasty antibiotic-resistant type of staph infection. Trying to treat it as a normal infection didn't work, of course, and so before I knew it I was in the hospital with a hand the size of Shaq (though considerably more red and excruciatingly painful). Luckily, I responded fairly well to the IV antibiotics and surgery to porotect the hand wasn't necessary, but I was in the hospital for 4 days on the IV. I got home from the hospital yesterday and am feeling much better, though I have probably a week or so before I can use my left hand again (one-handed typing sucks, btw).

Crazy story, right? On the plus side, I missed the Mets collapse (at least the end of it), I got to watch some playoff baseball, and am a little more like Alex Rios now. So, the lesson - don't get MRSA.

6 comments | 0 recs

Well you know I went to Baltimore / So confident and wise / And as I breathed she breathed no more / And she did surely die : Game Thread, Jays at O's



 

Tonight's post title comes from "Baltimore," a great song of the best-titled (though not my favourite) Lyle Lovett record, Joshua Judges Ruth.  The Jays head in to Baltimore to end their series, and J.P. Ricciardi must be feeling pretty confident and wise after the Jays gave him another year to make the playoffs, despite the fact that the team looks to end this season in 4th place and with a record not significantly better than they've done in the past two seasons. Please do let us know what you think about J.P. being back for another year in the comments and poll for the post below, and stop by and chat about that, as well as the game and anything else on your mind, tonight in the game thread. 

105 comments | 0 recs

Return. You Were Supposed to Return: J.P. Ricciardi Back for 2010

A little OK Go on this rainy friday here in D.C.  So the Jays made it official - J.P. Ricciardi will be returning as Jays General Manager next season. Paul Godfrey, though, Jays president, hasn't yet decided whether he will be back next season.

Predictably, some believe the move to keep J.P. on to be quite head-scratching. But I have to say, though some of J.P.'s individual moves have been poor, others have been great, and I do think J.P. has the right idea in terms of building a baseball team.  He put together an incredible pitching staff over the last two years, both in the rotation and the bullpen, and with so many rotation questions going into next season, the Jays could use his acumen in assembling their starting staff.  He's done a fine job retaining his players, even though in the case of some of them, it may have been better to let them go. 

Like any GM, he has his strengths and weaknesses.  My biggest concern with J.P. is his tendency to approach problem areas by throwing several mediocre players at a problem and hoping that one sticks.  This isn't always a bad strategy, but it hasn't really worked out well for the team so far and the result has basically been that the Jays' problem areas remain as problem areas year after year after year.  I am also concerned that he lacks the creativity to put the Jays over the top in a tough division.  I'm afraid he is treading water with the team, never rebuilding, but never going all in - tying up his payroll and playing time by locking in average and slightly-above average players, and just hoping that one year, things break the Jays' way.  This might work, but it doesn't seem to me that it is what GMs get paid for. 

What do y'all think?  Vote and more importantly, leave your comments below.

 

Poll
What do you think about the Jays retaining J.P. Ricciardi as GM for the 2009 season?
  • Good move. Ricciardi has the team on the right track
  • Awful move. He's the longest-serving GM without a playoff appearance, is a PR joke, and doesn't know what he's doing

  24 votes | Results

6 comments | 0 recs

Camden Chat Picks the 2008 AL East All Star Team

Hey y'all, not much going on in the world of Jays, so I thought I send a great post from a sister SB Nation site y'all's way. 

Camden Chat has selected the 2008 AL East All-Star Team, and the Jays did not fare too well in the selections.  In fact, only one Jay made the team, Doc Halladay. No other Jays were selected. 

I might quibble and say that Downs should've been the setup man, but other than that, not too much argument.  If more pitchers were selected, surely the Jays would've had better representation.

1 comment | 0 recs

So It's Better, My Sweet, That We Hover Like Bees, Because There's No Sure Footing - Game Thread, Yankees at Jays



Not sure that there's any particular reason that Zaun is starting again, after his stellar performance yesterday, another poor offensive performance for the team that allowed Mike Mussina, one of the biggest jerks in major-league baseball, to inch closer to that 20-win mark. 

But that's not important.  What is important is that A.J. Burnett will be making tonight what is overwhelmingly likely to be his final start as a Jay.  Today's title, coming from a great song by the lovely Neko Case, struck me as appropriate.  Anyone think it's at all likely that the Jays keep A.J.?  

Well, A.J., the local media hated you for some reason, but you seem like a good guy to me, and everyone says you're a great teammate.  You deserve the big bucks and a fanbase that will appreciate your talent.  You're 9th on the Jays all-time list for ERA, 8th in Whip, and 3rd in K/9.  Let's give the Yankees one more beating before they offer you the big bucks to play for them.

The highly touted Phil Hughes (though the shine is off that apple a bit) pitches for the Yankees.  Knowing us, today will be the first day of the rest of his career.  Let's go Jays!

 

149 comments | 0 recs

The Ghost of You Lingers: Game Thread, Yankees at Jays



Well, the season is, for all intents and purposes over, but there's still something left to play for, especially this week.  The Jays are looking to finish ahead of the Yankees for the first time since 1993, and they will need to take this series if they want to do so.  Right now, the Yankees are 2 games ahead of the Jays. 

Jesse Litsch pitches against Mike Mussina tonight and it'd be nice to show some offense.  Let's face it, I know it's out of context, but if we can't beat the Yankees this season, it's tough to see how we will do next year when they will likely be much better and we will likely be mostly the same.

Tonight's title comes from a track off Spoon's record Ga Ga Ga Ga, which is way better than it sounds.

142 comments | 0 recs

Bright Light City Gonna Set My Soul, Gonna Set My Soul On Fire: Jays AAA Affiliate to be Located in Las Vegas for 2009 and 2010 Seasons

Well, it's settled.  The Jays AAA affiliate, at least, for the next 2 seasons, will be the Las Vegas 51s (named after the infamous military installation).  Vegas doesn't sound very happy about the situation (they lost the Dodgers to the 'Kerk) and the Jays are going to try to make the best of it.  Syracuse and the Nationals will be paired up, as will the Mets and Buffalo, and Cleveland and Columbus. 

It's clearly not ideal, given the travel time between Vegas and Toronto and Vegas and the Jays' AA affiliate in New Hampshire.  (though I have heard folks from New Hampshire ironically refer to Manchester, where they play, as 'Manch-Vegas.'  I also worry about the effect of the city on the minor-league players, though they should be pretty mature by AAA (A ball, on the other hand, would be a bigger concern for me). 

Las Vegas does have an exploding population as compared to other U.S. cities (certainly moreso than Syracuse) so at least Sin City is growing. 

On a personal level, I do travel to Las Vegas semi-frequently for work, so it's not a bad situation in that sense.  Although I used the Elvis tune for the title, I couldn't resist the opportunity to plug a Terry Gilliam movie. 

 

8 comments | 0 recs

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