Tampa Bay's pitching staff is a decidedly flyball one. They have the lowest Groundball/Flyball ratio in the American League at 0.91, and Kazmir (1.00 G/F ratio) is no exception to the Devil Ray rule. It's worth noting that the Devil Rays have done a good job of building their defense around a flyball staff, with fleet outfielders at every position. However, the absence of Rocco Baldelli (out until June with a torn ACL) forced them to recently sign bunt specialist Alex Sanchez, and Sanchez is no Baldelli.
Not sure where Studes comes up with these numbers of win probability, but the HR by Perez was a life saver after Kazmir pitched a heck of a game.