Last Week's Question
-Take a look at the Rays' projected PECOTA stats, and take the over/under on their respective production level.
Once again, I only got two responses to last week's question, not exactly a ringing endorsement, but here they are...
Mike A-Looking at those projected stats, it is very easy to find the two biggest errors. I believe Cantu is cabable of 30 homers and 120 rbis this year, which would mean i am taking over. Also, Kazmir's ERA will be somewhere below 3.70 this year based on how he pitched the second half of last year and the new improvements he's already made just a few days into spring training by suggestions from the pitching coach. Overall, I am extremely optimistic about the Rays this year!
Rocco Baldelli-.274/14/58 I say he will be right about here
Jorge Cantu-.272/24/90 I think he'll have more RBIS and a slightly high BA
Carl Crawford-.290/13/62 I think he'll have a higher BA not much maybe around 305
Jonny Gomes-.258/28/79 He should be about here maybe more RBI's
Aubrey Huff-.286/24/88 He should be about here
Julio Lugo-.277/8/52 He should have a better BA
Casey Fossum 8-11, 4.80 He's about here
Mark Hendrickson 8-12, 4.94 about here
Scott Kazmir 10-11, 4.30 I think he should have around 12 to 15 wins and a ERA around 4
Seth McClung 5-9, 5.19 About the same, maybe a ERA around 4.50
Doug Waechter 8-11, 5.02 About the same
Chad Orvella 3-4, 3.61, 23 saves Maybe around 25 to 30 saves.
Well, Mike didn't quite list the players and over.under in the format I would have preferred, but that's okay, it was no big deal. I hope for more responses next week, so write in guys!
Rocco Baldelli-.274/14/58: I think he will be a bit under on the batting average, but the home runs and RBIs are about right.
Jorge Cantu-.272/24/90: I think he will be right around here.
Carl Crawford-.290/13/62: Hopefully with an intelligent manager that knows where to slot him in the lineup, Crawford will have increased RBIs. I'm taking the over on all three.
Jonny Gomes-.258/28/79: I think PECOTA is right on the money here.
Aubrey Huff-.286/24/88: Bingo!
Julio Lugo-.277/8/52: I too think he will have batting average a bit higher, in the .280s or .290s.
Casey Fossum 8-11, 4.80: This is about right.
Mark Hendrickson 8-12, 4.94: Right again! Although, if anything, his ERA will be higher.
Scott Kazmir 10-11, 4.30: I'm not going to screw with the wins and losses thing, but, at the very worst, I think Kaz finishes with a 4.15 ERA. No way does he sink to 4.30.
Seth McClung 5-9, 5.19: I think he'll end up with an ERA somewhere in the fours, and he will probably have more decisions.
Doug Waechter 8-11, 5.02: He won't stay in the rotation long enough to amass 18 decisions, and his ERA will be about 50 points higher.
Chad Orvella 3-4, 3.61: More saves and an ERA closer to four.
Overall, I think PECOTA does better than most projection systems, and I agreed with many more projections than I thought I would. Now if only I had $40 lying around for a BP subscription.....
Question of the Week
This week, we will move of the on-field side of baseball for the Rays and focus on Tropicana Field renovations. Of the following mentioned renovations to improve the Trop for next season, which one do you think will be the best? For those of you who do not know of the specific renovations, here they are...
-Improved sound system
- New Devil Ray tank
-New Hitter's Hall of Fame exhibit
-New 1B terrace box club
-New, lower priced ticket section near bullpens
Choose which one, in theory, sounds the coolest, and email your response to me at email@example.com or click the 'Contact Patrick* button on the side of the page. I will then format your responses into next week's article. I will also post a poll on the side of the page. I hope for more responses this week, so get yours in!