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C.R.E.A.M 8/23/07: The 40 Year Old Purchase

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 Now that my speculation has been proven as at least somewhat factual it's time to lok at what contract Schilling may get on the open market using recent examples of Kenny Rogers, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and John Smoltz.

Schilling will enter the off-season with around 430 wins, and a career 3.47 ERA along with an annual of 220 innings per season. I would break Schilling's recent numbers down by the past five years, but I find it more useful and telling to look at his Red Sox years only:

2004 - 226 IP, 203 SO, 35 BB
2005 - 93 IP, 87 SO, 22 BB
2006 - 204 IP, 183 SO, 28 BB
2007 - 112 IP, 79 SO, 19 BB

Control is superb, he's been inconsistent in his performances (luckily the Rays should land on a 200+ inning season) but he recently remarked his arm should no longer be an issue. Earned runs, hits, and wins are too team dependent, so I don't really take those into account although just using the eye test I'd say our defense (minus SS and 2B) is just as good as the Sox (minus LF and RF for them.)

Rogers hit the free agent market when he was 41, same as Schilling, and threw 204 innings last season, before that here are his stats in Texas as well as his year in Minnesota; which oddly I forgot about, it seems like he's been a Ranger forever with stops in New York and Oakland intertwined.

2003 - 195 IP, 116 SO, 50 BB
2004 - 211 IP, 126 SO, 66 BB
2005 - 195 IP, 87 SO, 53 BB

After deal: 2 Years, 16 mil (06: 8M, 07: 8M)

2006 - 204 IP, 99 SO, 62 BB
2007 - 32 IP, 17 SO, 19 BB

This past off-season Glavine, Maddux, and Smoltz all got new deals with Maddux changing teams, again. Their deals:

Maddux: 1 year, 10 mil (08 options: team 11M, player 6M)
Glavine: 1 year, 10.5 mil plus option guaranteed with 160 IP in 2007 (sits at 157 right now) 9M with 3M buyout.
Smoltz: 1 year, 14 mil (09 + 10 options, 09 12M, 10 13M)

Glavine is 41, Smoltz 40, Maddux 41; between them they could make an average of about 9.3 million. We'll go back three years for each:

Glavine
2005 - 211 IP, 105 SO, 61 BB
2006 - 198 IP, 131 SO, 62 BB
2007 - 157 IP, 74 SO, 52 BB

Smoltz:

2005 - 229 IP, 169 SO, 53 BB
2006 - 232 IP, 211 SO, 55 BB
2007 - 153 IP, 142 SO, 37 BB

Maddux:

2005 - 225 IP, 136 SO, 36 BB
2006 - 210 IP, 117 SO, 37 BB
2007 - 154 IP, 83 SO, 21 BB

Maybe it's just me, but I think Schilling ranks within the top three, which would likely mean a one or two year deal with an option for a third. I like the performance based incentive triggers like inning plateaus, and although it's not a measurable factor, if the Rays give Schill the coin, what effect would it have on other free agents, perhaps they'd be more likely to jump the fence to Tampa...or rather jump the plane? Things can get very interesting for the Rays if, and I'm assuming his ego would allow for this to come to fruition - excuse my biblical allusion -- our modern day Moses leads us to the promised land.

I feel dirty for that.