clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Best/Worse Case Scenario

I got sent a link to this quick program(thanks Matt Wilson), that will calculate the most optimal lineup, and how many runs that team will produce based on OBP and Slugging Pct. You can see this
Lineup Analysis tool here.

I don't know if this has been posted on the site before, but if not...enjoy. Analysis after the jump.

Let me preface this by saying that this does not account for speed or many other factors, and alot of these numbers I arbitrarily came up with. For the Worse Case Scenario, I pretty much projected what would be awful seasons for the players. For Rocco, I used his 2007 season. For Pena, I put nearly a .300 drop in OPS. Alot of this stuff I just made up quickly just for fun, so please don't be too critical.

On the other end, I did the same thing for best case scenario, and basically put career years for all of the players on the list. For Carlos I put his 07 season, for Baldelli his 06 season, and for most other players I put in marginal improvements from past seasons. For Longoria, I used his 08 forecast from BP, but this was based on his 06 results, as the new forecasts aren't out yet. If you are still reading after all of this, here is what came up.

Worse Case:

This would be a pretty poor season clearly, and
would be considerably worse than last year where the team put up 4.83 runs per game. The league average is 4.90 runs per game.

Best Case:

The first 3 lineups would probably never happen, but the third one doesn't look too far off. This would leave us averaging 6.313 runs per game, which would be well above last years leader in baseball, the Yankees with 5.98 runs per game. That would basically be dominating the league. Obviously that would require career years from all of the players, but it just shows you the prospect of this team.

I did this for fun in like 15 minutes, so if someones averages are way off what you would put, please don't hate me.