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The Extensions Revisited

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Using methods developed by Tom Tango

Carlos Pena 3/24

Contract Outlook:
08: 6
09: 8
10: 10.15

Assuming a win costs 4.4 mil in 08 and inflates 10% every year after, the Rays were paying for a 1.5 WAR player in 2008, a 1.6 WAR player in 2009, and a 2 WAR player in 2010. In other words: the Rays got a very good deal. Pena was worth 3.2 WAR this season, or about 14.5 million. Even if you figure Pena drops 0.5 wins each of the next two seasons, the Rays are paying under market value for Pena in two-thirds of the seasons.

09: 2.7 WAR/13.5 mil
10: 2.2 WAR/ 12.2 mil

Impression: Looks excellent.

James Shields 7/38

Contract Outlook:
08: 1
09: 1.5
10: 2.5
11: 4.25
12: 7
13: 9
14: 12

Shields was worth around five-ish WAR this season, but was getting paid what we'll call: non-arbitration arbitration. Let's assume he's a true talent four WAR pitcher, and see what happens if Shields loses 0.50 WAR per season, he'll look something like this:

09: 4/19.7
10: 3.5/19.1
11: 3/17.9
12: 2.5/16.5
13: 2/14.5
14: 1.5/12

Impression: Looks excellent.


Dan Wheeler 3/10.5

Contract Outlook:

08: 2.8
09: 3.2
10: 3.5
11: 4 (club option, 1 buyout)

Wheeler is just shy of being a 0.5 WAR reliever, and is paid as such. If he deteriorates quickly, he'll be overpaid just in time for the buyout.

Impression: Not bad, but on our budget, probably could do without, even if he is paid market value.

Scott Kazmir 3/28.5

Contract Outlook:

09: 6
10: 8
11: 12
12: 13.5 (club option, 2.5 buyout)

Kazmir was about a 2.5 WAR pitcher last season, despite his struggles. Let's assume he bounces back to being a 3, maybe 3.5 WAR pitcher next year and doesn't decline until after this contract expires.

09: 3/14.9
10: 3/16.4
11: 3/18
12: 3/19.6

Yet again, we're paying under market value for young talent. Of course, those numbers get a little closer if Kazmir remains a 2.5 WAR pitcher, and yet he'd STILL be underpaid.

Impression: Solid deal.

Evan Longoria 6/17.5

Contract Outlook:
08: 0.5
09: 0.55
10: 0.95
11: 2
12: 4.5
13: 6
14: 7.5 (club option, 3 buyout)
15: 11 (club option)
16: 11.5 (club option)

Ah yes, the greatest heist of them all. Evan was basically a 5 WAR player this season, and there's not a ton of reason to expect him to decline anytime soon. Longoria was worth 22 million last season. If he keeps up his 5 WAR past through the decade, he'll amass roughly 73 million in value, yet only about two million in actual pay. How's this: if Evan can somehow maintain 5 WAR through the length of his contract, options be damned, his value would be roughly 300 million during that span, he'll make a little less than a sixth of that over the length of his current contract.

Impression: SWEET JESUS.

For those who want to adjust the WAR totals on their own, check after the jump for the million per win numbers.

Here's an example of the spreadsheet I used:

 

Year Mil WAR warmil
2008 4.4 5 22
2009 4.84 5 24.2
2010 5.32 5 26.6
2011 5.86 5 29.3
2012 6.44 5 32.2
2013 7.09 5 35.45
2014 7.79 5 38.95
2015 8.569 5 42.845

If you don't think Player A is going to be a5 WAR player in 2011, simply change his value to "X" and then multiple it by the "MIL" column. Straight forward stuff, and presented for easy reference. Have fun.