Well, I'm not all that surprised, but I am a little dissipointed that I'll have to start cheering against Cream Cheese Sabathia (or is it Cheese Cake now?). I ran some numbers to find the break-even point for the deal.
I used RJ's beloved NLRS method (5.75-FIP)*(IP/9) and converted to WAR. The break-even point occurs when his performance (FIP) declines by 7.75% and IP by 5% per year. As per usual, I added 10% inflation in the cost per WAR. Here's a helpful table that shows what it looks like.
| Year | FIP | IP | WAR | Cost | Value ($ 1,000,000) |
| 2009 | 3.30 | 240 | 6.53 | 4.84 | 32.02 |
| 2010 | 3.56 | 228 | 5.56 | 5.32 | 29.99 |
| 2011 | 3.83 | 217 | 4.62 | 5.86 | 27.44 |
| 2012 | 4.13 | 206 | 3.71 | 6.44 | 24.29 |
| 2013 | 4.45 | 195 | 2.83 | 7.09 | 20.44 |
| 2014 | 4.79 | 186 | 1.97 | 7.79 | 15.79 |
| 2015 | 5.16 | 176 | 1.15 | 8.57 | 10.24 |
| 160.22 |