Well, I'm not all that surprised, but I am a little dissipointed that I'll have to start cheering against Cream Cheese Sabathia (or is it Cheese Cake now?). I ran some numbers to find the break-even point for the deal.
I used RJ's beloved NLRS method (5.75-FIP)*(IP/9) and converted to WAR. The break-even point occurs when his performance (FIP) declines by 7.75% and IP by 5% per year. As per usual, I added 10% inflation in the cost per WAR. Here's a helpful table that shows what it looks like.
|Year||FIP||IP||WAR||Cost||Value ($ 1,000,000)|