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Evaluating Pat Burrell

Pat Burrell is playing the role of the forgotten thus far this off-season. An awful defender, Burrell is almost certainly destined for a designated hitter role, leaving him with only a few options beyond Cincinnati and other unaware NL teams. Here's what we know about Burrell:

- 32 years old
- Lowest wOBA since 2004
- Unlucky BABIP
- Slightly down walk rates
- Increased ISO
- Even park adjusted wOBA (wOBA*) has him well above average.

Perhaps not surprisingly, Burrell is a player who actually gains value by moving to hitting full time. Here's how Burrell rated out in the notable defensive metrics:

Chone: -14
UZR: -14.7
PMR: -19.89
+/-: -16 (-20 plays, * 0.8 for runs)

That's an average of -16.15 runs, combine that with the positional adjustment of -7.5 and you're looking at his offensive value being zapped. At DH Burell gets penalized -17.5 runs, having him gain a half of a win in value for simply tucking his glove in a dark corner.

Marcels has Burrell continuing his slide (mostly age related) and slipping to .369 wOBA, or 18.7 offensive runs above average in 582 plate appearances. That makes him worth between 1.8 and 2 WAR. If Burrell can find a way into 645 plate appearances like 2008, raise those expectations to 2-2.2. That suggests Burrell should be worth between 9 to 11 million.

There are some cons to Burrell and those are associated with his age and potential for a quick collapse. If the Rays can somehow hook Burrell on a one or two season deal, it's likely worth their time, anything more than an option third season and things get a little sticky.