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Kicking The Boxscore: Flukes and Nukes

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Reviewing what we talked about last week

-         Edwin regressing. Check.

-         Hammel appearing real. Check.

-         Shields hitting the brakes. Check.

-         Carl beginning to hit. Check.

Now onto today’s topics.

 

Capt

via d.yimg.com

Just as Jason Bartlett will be fine, so will Akinori Iwamura. His xBABIP is over .300 but his real BABIP is .259. He’s hitting less line drives than last year, but it’s just a matter of time before the middle infield begins impressing with their bats like they have with their gloves.

Is Eric Hinske for real? Quick answer: no. His BABIP is over .300 despite a 13.5 LD%.  Mike DiFelice? Perhaps, nothing looks out of line. Shawn Riggans? Nope, he’ll need to hit more line drives to sustain success.

 

For the record Andrew Sonnanstine’s numbers are still in line for a bit more regression, but the most interesting facet of his game is the large jump in groundball percentage, unlike Edwin Jackson’s absurd near 80% infield flyball percentages that quickly dropped towards norm, it doesn’t appear that Sonnanstine’s groundballs are a manifestation of luck.

Regarding the Evan Longoria contract, I don’t think it’ll be nearly as revolutionary as some will make it seem, however it’s the next evolutionary step from the Troy Tulowitizki deal. Let’s say Longoria would’ve performed decently this year and then signed the contract, we still wouldn’t be assured future success. The only odd thing about the deal is the brevity in which it came and the circumstances behind the original demotion, but hey, most of that is irrelevant now, right? Except of course for Rob Dibble who slammed the Rays for "being cheap" and Longoria for "hurting his peers’ rates," both of which are silly; organizations should obviously be prisoner to the player’s greedy demands no matter what, let’s not even consider the game theory.

Rays/Longoria Signs Doesn't Sign
Plays Well Win/Win Lose/Win
Doesn't Play Well Lose/Win Lose/Lose

What would you have said if I told you Kurt Birkins had as many innings as Troy Percival entering the 19th game of the year?

Record through 19 games this year: 8-11, last year: 8-11.

Attendance/game this year: 17,803, last year 17,131.