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Pena/Longoria Will Be Fine

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I wanted to make a quick post here to soothe some of the people wanting both Longoria and Pena shifted down in the lineup, because as you know crises precipitate change. You want your best players getting the most at-bats and hopefully working the counts, let's take a look at the top five(six) on the team in terms of P/PA:

Player P/PA Lineup Slot
Gross 4.4 8
Longoria 4.2 5
Pena 4.1 4
Hinske 4 7
Upton 3.9 3
Iwamura 3.9 1

 

Now let's look specifically at Longoria/Pena's BABIP and xBABIP numbers:

Player LD% xBABIP BABIP
Pena 15.2 .272 .250
Longoria 20.3 .323 .257

Now, we know something more about Carlos Pena and where to expect his numbers, specifically on-base percentage to be, thanks to his career total. Without getting into the math (doing standard deviation and such) his career totals suggest he'll finish an OBP between .340/.356, he currently sits at .313.

Longoria's struggles meanwhile look to be a result of fate shortchanging him a few hits along the way, costing him about seven hits. Give those back to him -- as all singles -- and his line turns from .222/.319/.404 to .292/.379/.474.