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Projecting With Marcel: Pitchers

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Using this This Awesome Tool Via THT I'll run down what the current pitchers and hitters of the Rays will be projected to do the rest of the season. A few things about Marcel first; Its not perfect. First of all, when you see ERA its actually FIP(Fielding Independent Pitching) so bump it up a bit since we have a very good Defense. Secondly, It only takes account of the last four seasons in terms of IP and performance, and Minor League Stats are not taken account of for obvious reasons. So expect players with short track records to lean heavily on their 1st/2nd year.

First: Mr. Al Reyes(These are done in random order btw)

Year

G

GS

IP

ERA

K

BB

WHIP

So Far

20

0

17.2

4.58

15

8

1.19

Rest

13

0

11

4.24

9

4

1.28

Total

33

0

28.2

4.45

24

12

1.22

 

Not completely awful. Obviously an improvement over his first half numbers, but he still shouldn't sniff a close game with a lead. Solid K/BB ratio and WHIP.

 

Now for Mr. Dan Wheeler

Year

G

GS

IP

ERA

K

BB

WHIP

So Far

42

0

42.1

2.34

27

14

0.94

Rest

27

0

27

3.94

21

9

1.16

Total

69

0

69.1

2.96

48

23

1.03

Oh jeez Boys and Girls, this isn't going to be the same wheels is it? His ERA is primed to gain 1.60(!) points to almost 4. Not terrible, but not a SU man. He should become a 7th inning guy in the 2nd half if these are on target.

 

 

Trever Miller, LOOGY at your service:

Year

G

GS

IP

ERA

K

BB

WHIP

So Far

42

0

25

4.32

19

14

1.44

Rest

27

0

16

4.21

12

7

1.39

Total

69

0

31

4.28

31

21

1.42

We knew Trever Miller was not a great reliever, but this unacceptable. A 3:2 K/BB? These numbers suggest we should be looking at a LH Reliever or considering bringing up Mr. Kurt Birkins from AAA.

 

Shieldsy is up next:

Year

G

GS

IP

ERA

K

BB

WHIP

So Far

20

20

129.1

3.69

104

24

1.14

Rest

13

13

82

3.64

66

19

1.18

Total

33

33

209.1

3.67

170

43

1.15

This is why we call Shields a second ace, folks. His ERA should hover about where its as while his excellent K:BB merely goes to Very good. He should log 210 IP+ depending on playoffs, but I wouldn't be worried about it with his efficiency and motion. A very good year for Shieldsy if this stays the course.

 

Edwin Jackson:

Year

G

GS

IP

ERA

K

BB

WHIP

So Far

19

19

114.1

4.25

66

49

1.42

Rest

12

12

72

4.32

49

31

1.44

Total

31

31

186.1

4.28

115

80

1.43

What you see is what you get with Edwin. He should stay the course regressing the tiniest of bits. Decent #5 until price takes over for those last 5-7 starts.

 

Kid K:

Year

G

GS

IP

ERA

K

BB

WHIP

So Far

15

15

90

2.80

100

35

1.14

Rest

9

9

53

3.24

54

20

1.23

Total

24

24

143

2.96

154

55

1.18

This is a definite stepping stone year for Scott Kazmir, where he improved his control and retained dominance. If his arm holds up next year, he should be a serious Cy Young contender.

 

The Vulture Himself: JP HOWELL!

Year

G

GS

IP

ERA

K

BB

WHIP

So Far

39

0

60

2.55

59

27

1.10

Rest

23

0

35

3.85

29

13

1.28

Total

52

0

95

3.03

88

40

1.17

I wouldn't take a lot of stock in these numbers. This assumes his numbers are related to 2007 and 2006 numbers, and with the change to Reliever, they aren't.

 

THIS.IS.GARZA:

Year

G

GS

IP

ERA

K

BB

WHIP

So Far

19

19

115

3.83

75

37

1.25

Rest

11

11

68

3.93

49

23

1.31

Total

30

30

183

3.87

124

60

1.27

I'd call this a successful year for Garza considering age and early year troubles. That Delmon deal sure does look good. 2:1 K/BB is nice, and I don't agree with the notion that Garza will decline, but the totals should make anyone happy.

 

Sonny:

Year

G

GS

IP

ERA

K

BB

WHIP

So Far

20

20

121

4.54

74

21

1.34

Rest

12

12

72

3.77

50

17

1.32

Total

32

32

193

4.25

124

38

1.33

Its encouraging to see that Sonny is projected to do almost as well as Shields and better than Garza. Sonny has been the most underrated pitcher on the staff, primed to go 190 Innings at a little better than the average #4 starter. Good K:BB, decent WHIP are staples for Sonny.

 

The Bear Wrestler AKA Troy Percival:

Year

G

GS

IP

ERA

K

BB

WHIP

So Far

31

0

29.2

3.33

31

12

0.98

Rest

18

0

18

4.19

14

6

1.21

Total

49

0

47.2

3.63

45

18

47

I'd take that year from percy, but those 2nd half numbers do worry me. Certainly serviceable, but not the closer that he usually provides. We'd be lucky if his arm doesn't fall off in the playoffs.

 

Last and Least, Gary Glover

 

Year

G

GS

IP

ERA

K

BB

WHIP

So Far

29

0

34

5.82

22

18

1.76

Rest

17

0

20

4.43

15

8

1.60

Total

46

0

54

5.31

37

26

1.71

No moar Glover plz