Projecting With Marcel: Pitchers

Using this This Awesome Tool Via THT I'll run down what the current pitchers and hitters of the Rays will be projected to do the rest of the season. A few things about Marcel first; Its not perfect. First of all, when you see ERA its actually FIP(Fielding Independent Pitching) so bump it up a bit since we have a very good Defense. Secondly, It only takes account of the last four seasons in terms of IP and performance, and Minor League Stats are not taken account of for obvious reasons. So expect players with short track records to lean heavily on their 1^st/2^nd year.

First: Mr. Al Reyes(These are done in random order btw)

Year	G	GS	IP	ERA	K	BB	WHIP
So Far	20	0	17.2	4.58	15	8	1.19
Rest	13	0	11	4.24	9	4	1.28
Total	33	0	28.2	4.45	24	12	1.22

 

Not completely awful. Obviously an improvement over his first half numbers, but he still shouldn't sniff a close game with a lead. Solid K/BB ratio and WHIP.

 

Now for Mr. Dan Wheeler

Year	G	GS	IP	ERA	K	BB	WHIP
So Far	42	0	42.1	2.34	27	14	0.94
Rest	27	0	27	3.94	21	9	1.16
Total	69	0	69.1	2.96	48	23	1.03

Oh jeez Boys and Girls, this isn't going to be the same wheels is it? His ERA is primed to gain 1.60(!) points to almost 4. Not terrible, but not a SU man. He should become a 7^th inning guy in the 2^nd half if these are on target.

 

 

Trever Miller, LOOGY at your service:

Year	G	GS	IP	ERA	K	BB	WHIP
So Far	42	0	25	4.32	19	14	1.44
Rest	27	0	16	4.21	12	7	1.39
Total	69	0	31	4.28	31	21	1.42

We knew Trever Miller was not a great reliever, but this unacceptable. A 3:2 K/BB? These numbers suggest we should be looking at a LH Reliever or considering bringing up Mr. Kurt Birkins from AAA.

 

Shieldsy is up next:

Year	G	GS	IP	ERA	K	BB	WHIP
So Far	20	20	129.1	3.69	104	24	1.14
Rest	13	13	82	3.64	66	19	1.18
Total	33	33	209.1	3.67	170	43	1.15

This is why we call Shields a second ace, folks. His ERA should hover about where its as while his excellent K:BB merely goes to Very good. He should log 210 IP+ depending on playoffs, but I wouldn't be worried about it with his efficiency and motion. A very good year for Shieldsy if this stays the course.

 

Edwin Jackson:

Year	G	GS	IP	ERA	K	BB	WHIP
So Far	19	19	114.1	4.25	66	49	1.42
Rest	12	12	72	4.32	49	31	1.44
Total	31	31	186.1	4.28	115	80	1.43

What you see is what you get with Edwin. He should stay the course regressing the tiniest of bits. Decent #5 until price takes over for those last 5-7 starts.

 

Kid K:

Year	G	GS	IP	ERA	K	BB	WHIP
So Far	15	15	90	2.80	100	35	1.14
Rest	9	9	53	3.24	54	20	1.23
Total	24	24	143	2.96	154	55	1.18

This is a definite stepping stone year for Scott Kazmir, where he improved his control and retained dominance. If his arm holds up next year, he should be a serious Cy Young contender.

 

The Vulture Himself: JP HOWELL!

Year	G	GS	IP	ERA	K	BB	WHIP
So Far	39	0	60	2.55	59	27	1.10
Rest	23	0	35	3.85	29	13	1.28
Total	52	0	95	3.03	88	40	1.17

I wouldn't take a lot of stock in these numbers. This assumes his numbers are related to 2007 and 2006 numbers, and with the change to Reliever, they aren't.

 

THIS.IS.GARZA:

Year	G	GS	IP	ERA	K	BB	WHIP
So Far	19	19	115	3.83	75	37	1.25
Rest	11	11	68	3.93	49	23	1.31
Total	30	30	183	3.87	124	60	1.27

I'd call this a successful year for Garza considering age and early year troubles. That Delmon deal sure does look good. 2:1 K/BB is nice, and I don't agree with the notion that Garza will decline, but the totals should make anyone happy.

 

Sonny:

Year	G	GS	IP	ERA	K	BB	WHIP
So Far	20	20	121	4.54	74	21	1.34
Rest	12	12	72	3.77	50	17	1.32
Total	32	32	193	4.25	124	38	1.33

Its encouraging to see that Sonny is projected to do almost as well as Shields and better than Garza. Sonny has been the most underrated pitcher on the staff, primed to go 190 Innings at a little better than the average #4 starter. Good K:BB, decent WHIP are staples for Sonny.

 

The Bear Wrestler AKA Troy Percival:

Year	G	GS	IP	ERA	K	BB	WHIP
So Far	31	0	29.2	3.33	31	12	0.98
Rest	18	0	18	4.19	14	6	1.21
Total	49	0	47.2	3.63	45	18	47

I'd take that year from percy, but those 2^nd half numbers do worry me. Certainly serviceable, but not the closer that he usually provides. We'd be lucky if his arm doesn't fall off in the playoffs.

 

Last and Least, Gary Glover

 

Year	G	GS	IP	ERA	K	BB	WHIP
So Far	29	0	34	5.82	22	18	1.76
Rest	17	0	20	4.43	15	8	1.60
Total	46	0	54	5.31	37	26	1.71

No moar Glover plz