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BaseRuns, Luck, Ect.

Patrick Sullivan at Baseball Analysts ran the numbers on the remaining schedule for American League contenders. What he found was that the Rays average opponent winning percentage is higher than the Red Sox, but not by too much.

Tampa Bay

W-L: 79-50, 1st in the AL East
Games Remaining: 33
Home: 16
Away: 17
WAOWP: .524
Home Record: 47-18
Road Record: 32-32


W-L: 75-55, 2nd in the AL East, 1st in AL Wild Card
Games Remaining: 32
Home: 20
Away: 12
WAOWP: .532
Home Record: 43-18
Road Record: 32-37

A quick and dirty napkin calculation based on the season long performances at home and on the road have this unfolding like this:

Home 12 14
Away 9 6
Total 99* 95

Obviously I rounded up on _.5 numbers for both sides (like the 99/100 total wins issue...), so there's some room for error like with anything else. I decided to also run the numbers based on BaseRuns to see if either team was projected to be overly lucky or unlucky over 162 games, leaving some room for progression and regression over these last ~30 games. Here are the results:

Baseruns Real
RAYS 87 99
SOX 102 93

Basically we're on pace to win 12 more than our BR pythag suggests, and the Sox are on pace to lose 9 more. Naturally there's nothing that guarantees our regression will come this season, but as long as things don't completely even out over these next few weeks we should still be in the picture. Also for those wondering, over 32 and 33 games the Rays are expected to win 18 and the Sox 20, not quite enough to make up that 4.5 games gap.