With the signing of Burrell, we have a fairly good idea about how the at-bats should shake out. I looked at Marcel's projections for the 15 players I see getting the majority of the plate appearances and tried to guess how I thought they might shake out. Then I used their wOBA projections and the CHONE's defensive projections to figure their value.
Age | wOBA | PA | BRAA | Replacement | Def | Adjustment | Total Value | |
Evan Longoria | 24 | 0.366 | 600 | 19.3 | 20.0 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 48.8 |
Carlos Pena | 31 | 0.383 | 625 | 29.3 | 20.8 | 1.0 | -12.5 | 38.7 |
B.J. Upton | 25 | 0.358 | 600 | 15.1 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 37.6 |
Jason Bartlett | 30 | 0.315 | 500 | -6.1 | 16.7 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 25.1 |
Pat Burrell | 33 | 0.369 | 625 | 21.7 | 20.8 | 0.0 | -17.5 | 25.1 |
Dioner Navarro | 25 | 0.319 | 470 | -4.1 | 15.7 | 2.4 | 10.4 | 24.3 |
Carl Crawford | 28 | 0.335 | 580 | 3.0 | 19.3 | 8.7 | -6.8 | 24.3 |
Akinori Iwamura | 30 | 0.330 | 600 | 0.5 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 23.2 |
Matthew Joyce | 25 | 0.354 | 400 | 8.7 | 13.3 | 4.7 | -6.3 | 20.4 |
Reid Brignac | 22 | 0.333 | 200 | 0.7 | 6.7 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 9.9 |
Fernando Perez | 26 | 0.341 | 200 | 2.1 | 6.7 | 1.3 | -0.8 | 9.3 |
Gabe Gross | 30 | 0.335 | 250 | 1.3 | 8.3 | 1.3 | -2.5 | 8.4 |
Willy Aybar | 26 | 0.334 | 200 | 0.9 | 6.7 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 7.8 |
Shawn Riggans | 29 | 0.312 | 250 | -3.7 | 8.3 | -2.5 | 4.2 | 6.3 |
Ben Zobrist | 27 | 0.309 | 200 | -3.5 | 6.7 | -3.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
This puts us at about 31 wins above replacement with replacement level pitching. That's about an 80 win team. Tomorrow I'll look at the pitching staff to see where we are as a whole.