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Fun With Math and Wade Davis' Walk Rate

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Per StatCorner, Wade Davis threw 37.4% balls in Triple-A this season and 37.1% balls in the majors. His unintentional walk rates were 8.8% and 7.9% respectively. I wanted to know whether or not we should expect that walk rate to creep up a bit, so I took every starting pitcher in the 37%-38% ball range - surprisingly a lot --  and produced a raw average*uBB%. That average was 7.98%.

I love when it happens like that.

*This simply means I didn't weight the pitchers based on pitches thrown. That probably changes the figure, but not overly much; I set the qualifying bar at 300 xOuts/PA.

Data used:

 

Pitcher Ball% uBB%
Davis AAA 37.4 8.8
Davis MLB 37.1 7.9
Blanton 37 6.5
Penny 37.1 6.8
Holland 37.1 7.7
Looper 37.1 6.7
H. Bailey 37.2 10.2
Kazmir 37.2 9.5
Lester 37.2 7.6
Huff 37.3 7
Sowers 37.3 9
Bush 37.3 7
Wellemeyer 37.3 9
Hampton 37.3 8.1
Jackson 37.3 7.4
Harden 37.3 10.2
Price 37.4 9.8
E. Santana 37.4 7.1
Billingsley 37.5 9.4
Padilla 37.6 8.2
Ohlendorf 37.6 7.2
West 37.7 7.2
Guthrie 37.8 6.8
Pelfrey 37.8 7
Marquis 37.8 7.9
Porcello 37.8 7.3
Cook 37.8 6.8
Washburn 37.8 8.3
Cueto 37.9 8
C. Zambrano 37.9 9.8