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What Price Is Right? (part 1)

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There have been a few off-hand remarks and passing discussions about Price extension that would be similar to Longoria's last season. At first I balked at the idea of extending a pitcher with less than 50 MLB innings. To really reap any financial rewards the deal would need to be worth at least 6 years which just seems too long for a pitcher (no matter how proven).

So I drew up a few tables showing some financial possibilities that a Price extension could be based around.

First off we'll take a look at some tables showing how much he will be worth, how much he will command, and how much value he will provide over the next 6 years (that he is under team control). The first two years his salary is locked in, and the third is unless he is super-2 eligible. To estimate how much he would make in his arbitration eligible years I did 40% (for super 2 and regular arbitration 1), 60%, and 80% of his free-agent value (which is WAR*win-value).

In the first scenario, Price is a 4 WAR pitcher all of the 6 years and is not super-2 (which is impossible I believe, but play along anyway):

Year WAR Win Value Value ($) Salary Net Value
2009 4 4.50 18.00 0.75* 17.25
2010 4 4.95 19.80 1* 18.80
2011 4 5.45 21.78 1.25* 20.53
2012 4 5.99 23.96 9.58 14.37
2013 4 6.59 26.35 15.81 10.54
2014 4 7.25 28.99 23.19 5.80
Total 24 34.72 138.88 51.59 87.29

 Next we have him as a 3 WAR pitcher and not Super-2 (also highly unlikely):

Year WAR Win Value Value ($) Salary Net Value
2009 3 4.50 13.50 0.75* 12.75
2010 3 4.95 14.85 1* 13.85
2011 3 5.45 16.34 1.25* 15.09
2012 3 5.99 17.97 7.19 10.78
2013 3 6.59 19.77 11.86 7.91
2014 3 7.25 21.74 17.39 4.35
Total 18 34.72 104.16 39.44 64.72

The final non-Super-2 estimation is him as a 2 WAR pitcher:

Year WAR Win Value Value ($) Salary Net Value
2009 3 4.50 13.50 0.75* 12.75
2010 3 4.95 14.85 1* 13.85
2011 3 5.45 16.34 1.25* 15.09
2012 3 5.99 17.97 7.19 10.78
2013 3 6.59 19.77 11.86 7.91
2014 3 7.25 21.74 17.39 4.35
Total 18 34.72 104.16 39.44 64.72

Next we move into the likely scenarios that he is Super-2 eligible, but also a 4 WAR pitcher:

Year WAR Win Value Value ($) Salary Net Value
2009 4 4.50 18.00 0.75* 17.25
2010 4 4.95 19.80 1* 18.80
2011 4 5.45 21.78 8.71 13.07
2012 4 5.99 23.96 9.58 14.37
2013 4 6.59 26.35 15.81 10.54
2014 4 7.25 28.99 23.19 5.80
Total 24 34.72 138.88 59.05 79.83

Now we have him as a 3 WAR pitcher:

Year WAR Win Value Value ($) Salary Net Value
2009 3 4.50 13.50 0.75* 12.75
2010 3 4.95 14.85 1* 13.85
2011 3 5.45 16.34 6.53 9.80
2012 3 5.99 17.97 7.19 10.78
2013 3 6.59 19.77 11.86 7.91
2014 3 7.25 21.74 17.39 4.35
Total 18 34.72 104.16 44.72 59.44

Finally, a 2-WAR pitcher that is Super-2 eligible:

Year WAR Win Value Value ($) Salary Net Value
2009 2 4.50 9.00 0.75* 8.25
2010 2 4.95 9.90 1* 8.90
2011 2 5.45 10.89 4.36 6.53
2012 2 5.99 11.98 4.79 7.19
2013 2 6.59 13.18 7.91 5.27
2014 2 7.25 14.49 11.60 2.90
Total 12 34.72 69.44 30.40 39.04