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Tampa Bay Rays Project to Finish Third in Simulations Blowout

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Replacement Level Yankees Blog took the CHONE, THT, Marcel, PECOTA, ZiPS, and CAIRO projections, plugged them into Diamond Mind Baseball. From there, SG simulates the season 1,000 times each. He's taken the liberty of combing all 6,000 simulations into a handy post for the world to see, and well, the results are interesting.

 

AL East  W   L  RF   RA  Div   WC
NYA 95.9 66.1 853 711 2908.8 1776.2
BOS 94.3 67.7 837 703 2157.3 2053.4
TAM 90.1 71.9 795 695 916.3 1591.2
TOR 75.6 86.4 691 742 9.4 80.3
BAL 74.5 87.5 781 844 8.3 46.3

 

The Rays are projected to win 90 games while scoring about 800 runs and allowing less than 700. That means above average run production and prevention, which is expected. In these 6,000 simulations the Rays win the A.L. East 916 times and the Wild Card 1,591 times. That means they make the playoffs 42% of the time.

 

 StD W   Std RF  Std RA  1 2 3 4 5  APW   Std APW
90 - 102 813 - 894  673 - 749 3058 1897 963 74 8 100 95 - 104
88 - 101 796 - 879  667 - 739 2295 2205 1351 130 19 94 90 - 98
84 - 96 756 - 834  659 - 732 1009 1735 2753 431 72 88 83 - 92
69 - 82 654 - 728  705 - 780 14 100 410 2979 2497 78 74 - 83
68 - 81 742 - 820  803 - 885 10 63 320 2457 3150 71 66 - 76

Moving to the right of those columns you see "StD x" which represents the standard deviation either way for each of the categories. The Rays ranged within 84-96 wins, 756-834 runs scored, 659-732 allowed, etc. From there you see five numbers. These represent the final standings place. So in 1,009 simulations the Rays finish first, but these aren't always counted as "division wins" because in the event of a tie SG simply splits the division title both ways (0.5 assigned to each). The Rays finish fourth or below a little over 500 times.

APW is the average amount of wins tied to each standing place and Std APW is the standard deviation again. That means the Rays may have to win 95-104 games for first, 90-98 for second, and so on.

Per projection system:

PECOTA 92 wins, third.

CHONE 88 wins, third.

THT 92 wins, third.

Marcel 89 wins, third.

ZiPS 90 wins, third.

CAIRO 91 wins, third.

The group of death has nothing on this division. Whichever team finishes third is most likely going to be the third best team in the league. There's a good chance we win the division, there's a good chance we win the WC, there's a good chance we finish third. There's also an extremely good chance we do not win 97 games while having a better roster and individual performances.

I guess what I'm saying is, this team and this year's record is going to have a special circumstance surrounding it. That circumstance is playing alongside two additional monster teams and two teams that are not exactly chopped meat in Toronto and Baltimore. Even so, the Rays have a legitimate chance to win the damn thing, and that is all you can ask for.