clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Tampa Bay Rays' Attendance: Why Not to Worry, Part 1

So we only have a few home games worth of attendance figures to go with, but I'm anxious to do some analyzing.  Here are our home attendance figures as of Friday morning:

Day Opp. Attendance
M NYY 36,973
T NYY 36,973
W NYY 25,171
Th CHW 13,803

What I'm sure jumps out to most people is the attendance for the Thursday night game.  I'm sure everyone expected us to sell out the first two games of the season and Wednesday night's showing against the Yankees was actually quite promising (we drew very similarly against the Yankees on a Wednesday last September).  However, last night looks quite scary at first glance.  I'm here to tell you, though, don't worry and here's why:

There are three main reasons we shouldn't get too upset about last night's attendance figures: the day of the game, our opponent, and fluctuation around the mean.  As I mentioned in my last article about attendance, Thursday are historically the Rays' worst day of the week in terms of attendance figures, coming in at (on average) 11% under the daily attendance figure for any given year.  Like I said in that article, though, this number simply explains what has happened in the past and can't be used to make predictions.  For example, if we tried using Thursday's game to make a prediction, then our average attendance per game this year would project to around 15,500, which we know is not going to be the case.  But the fact the we typically see the lowest attendance figures of the week on Thursdays is something to keep in mind.

Also, for some reason, we've never drawn very well when playing the White Sox.  Small sample size alert, but over the last three seasons, here's what our home attendance figures against the White Sox have been:

CHW Year %
2006 15279 16,901 -14%
2007 11614 17,131 -32%
2008 19327 22,370 -10%

In the first column is our average daily attendance for the year when facing the White Sox, in the second column is the average daily attendance for that entire year, and the third column is how much lower than average our attendance against the White Sox was for that year.  As you can see, we've always drawn rather poorly against them, which could partially be because most of those games happened in the middle of the week and we only play them at home for one or two series a year.  Even if those variables play into it, though, they're not a team that tends to draw well.

Coming next, I'll delve into the third and most important reason why we should not be concerned.  For a sneak preview, check out this.