Like a once mild cancer spreading through the body, even post-1st inning Scott Kazmir has been a total failure the past two starts. His decline in velocity and K/9 is pretty well documented. Sadly, the story behind his strikeout numbers is worse than the K/9 indicates. Below is a table comparing the K/9 of each pitcher in the Ray's rotation and his strikeouts as a % of total batters faced:
|
K/9 |
K% |
|
|
Garza |
7.5 |
20.74% |
|
Kazmir |
6.97 |
16.16% |
|
Shields |
5.97 |
16.00% |
|
Sonny |
5.36 |
12.83% |
|
Niemann |
4.54 |
11.05% |
Kazmir is a full strikeout per 9 ahead of James Shields a percentage difference of16.8%. However, when you look at what percentage of batters Kazmir has struck out vs. Shields its only 0.16% more or a percentage difference of 0.01%. Kazmir is facing so many more hitters compared to how many he should be. Let's take a look at his historical K/9 and Strikeout %'s.
|
Year |
K% |
K/9 |
SwStrike% |
|
2004 |
26.97% |
11.07 |
12.60% |
|
2005 |
21.27% |
8.42 |
10.10% |
|
2006 |
26.72% |
10.14 |
12.20% |
|
2007 |
26.94% |
10.41 |
12.10% |
|
2008 |
25.90% |
9.81 |
11.80% |
|
2009 |
16.16% |
6.97 |
6.40% |
The decline in K/9 from 2008 to 2009 is an alarming 30.0%. Evacuate the building because the % decline in Strikeout % in that period is 37.6%. Scott Kazmir is striking out batters at a 37.6% slower pace than last year. His swinging strike % has declined by an even greater 45.8%. Scott Kazmir needs a break from Major League Baseball.
(Data prior to last night's start and compiled during the debacle)