More than a quarter into the season, post-season hero BJ Upton is hitting like a fraction of the man he used to be. Upton emerged as an impressive major league hitter in 2007 when he posted a slash line of .300/.386/.508 with a 12.1 BB% and 24 home runs. Despite playing with a torn labrum which required off-season surgery in 2008, Upton still posted a line of .273/.383/.401 with 9 home runs. When combining his on-base skills, ability to see lots of pitches (15.2 BB% in '08) and speed (44 steals in '08), Upton makes an excellent lead off candidate.
The plan has not worked out quite like expected to date. Upton missed most of the Spring after being plunked on the had by a pitch and began the season on the 15 Day Disabled List. Coming off shoulder surgery and having little Spring, the thought was Upton should grow accustomed to his shoulder by the 100 Plate Appearance mark. Now nearing the 200 PA mark, things remain less than rosy. Below are the monthly splits to date for Upton:
Split PA AB BB% K% H XBH BA OBP SLG April/March 75 62 17.3% 33.9% 11 3 0.177 0.320 0.226 May 119 107 8.4% 30.8% 21 8 0.196 0.263 0.318
Two things jump out, a noticeable uptick in slugging from .226 to .318 and a big drop off in the BJ BB's (17.3% to 8.4%) leading to a pitiful OBP of .263 from .320. BJ has always been fond of the strikeout, but he is not seeing the usual dose of walks. Why is that?
|
Season |
FB% |
Mis% |
Tk% |
TkB% |
TkS% |
Fstrike % |
O-Contact% |
|
2007 |
57.70% |
26.7% |
56.6% |
70% |
30% |
63.7% |
46.0% |
|
2008 |
61.50% |
18.9% |
59.6% |
71% |
29% |
55.2% |
65.6% |
|
2009 |
69.20% |
23.2% |
61.1% |
66% |
34% |
64.4% |
51.7% |
BJ is clearly not catching up to fastballs. He is seeing fastballs at such a rate that it is as if he is facing Jeff Niemann each at bat. Is the bat speed still a function of the recovery from the shoulder surgery? He is missing 5% more pitches than he did in 2008, most being generated from an increase in misses outside the zone. While Upton is taking more pitches, it is a combination of 5% fewer balls and 5% more strikes than last year. Lastly his F-Strike% is 9% higher than last year. This is a function of pitchers not being afraid to challenge him and BJ's determination to swing at the first pitch to try and hit his way out of the slump.
In Upton's defense, he is due for a BABIP correction, and I believe we have begun to see that. His Line Drive % should continue to increase and he will begin to move towards more normalized BABIP levels for a speedster.
|
Year |
GB% |
FB% |
LD% |
BABIP |
|
2007 |
43.7% |
29.2% |
22.2% |
0.392 |
|
2008 |
48.9% |
23.6% |
21.4% |
0.342 |
|
2009 |
43.6% |
25.6% |
17.9% |
0.261 |
|
|
|
|
|
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Going back to the characteristics of a good leadoff man: plate discipline to see lots of pitches, high OBP, and speed, it seems it is time to move Upton down in the order. He is sacrificing OBP to try and hit his way out the slump. When he does get deep in counts, it sometimes seems like he is praying for walks as evidenced by increase in strikes taken. Pitchers are not afraid to challenge him leading to fewer walks without reducing the strikeout rate. Taking hacks early in the count may lead to more hits and fewer strikeouts, but until he re-earns pitchers' respect he will be a well below average leadoff hitter. At this point I would label it half-shoulder/half-approach. Drop him down in the order, rebuild some confidence, and put him back up when he is healed and can use the patented BJBB approach.