We're right around 30% right now. For comparsion's sake, this is last year's graph:
If you focus in on June first, you'll see that the blue line (odds of winning the division) are right around 30% entering June. The playoff line was up near 50% though. The odds are clearly against us, and that's fine. But before you write this season off as an absolutely failure, consider that just about everything that can go wrong has. Short of Evan Longoria breaking his arm and Carlos Pena losing a leg, there's not much left for Murphy or random variation to sabotage.
That doesn't mean we're making the playoffs, but we're still alive