After reading Matthan's fanpost this morning, I wanted to see what my offseason analysis called Est. Wins looked like through this point in the season. This was a first look at how many wins a pitcher should have had. It was rough and rudimentary. Here is what it looks like updated through 75 games:
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After conversing back and forth with Matthan I wanted to see this in FIP format, first the data, then the explanation:
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First off, check out the workbook on google docs or download the file FIP win% 75 games. I ask to do this so the process doesn't come across as complete gibberish. Using Baseball-reference's gamelogs I was able to come up with a game by game FIP for opposition pitchers (FIPa). It stands to reason that if our starter has a lower FIP (FIPrays) he should be credited with a win. From here I was able to create a matrix comparing each individual FIPa to the entire population of Rays starters FIPs. Using conditional formatting (green is >1, or that cell represents an event where the FIPrays > FIPa) I came up with a total number of events where our performance should be better than theirs. This yielded a probability of a win for each FIP that we have had this year (% of games on Matrix tab).
From here I moved on to the "Data" tab of the workbook. By comparing each actual game FIP to the probability of winning at that FIP (PROBw) I was able to get an idea of estimated wins. This was then totaled and put into the summary that you see before the jump. The team FIP is a weighted average based on Individual FIPs and games started. The PROBw is the likelihood of a starter winning any given starter, based on Est. Wins / Starts.
I used 3.15 as my FIP constant term. Our starter FIPs are based on actual Innings Pitched, while FIPa is based on all opposition pitchers, assuming 9 innings/game. Overall, I really like this, and in the future will make the matrix a little bit different so it is easier to update. It took a long time to do the matrix manually, so if anyone is any good at programming/macros it could be a lot easier in the future. Your thoughts?
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