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Updated Deserved Wins

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By Sandy Kazmir


I've updated the FIP look I did the other day and thought you guys might find it interesting.  I have made the workbooks more user friendly, though it is still a process.  I now have the Red Sox and Yankees so here we go:

Pitcher FIP PROBw  Starts   Est. Wins 
Sabathia    3.76 70.4%           16            11.27
Beckett    3.33 73.2%           15            10.99
Shields    3.79 64.4%           16            10.30
Pettitte    4.57 61.3%           15              9.20
Burnett    4.96 59.5%           15              8.93
Lester    3.85 56.8%           15              8.51
Wakefield    4.28 59.3%           14              8.30
Chamberlain    3.62 63.8%           13              8.30
Penny    4.72 58.6%           14              8.21
Garza    4.67 51.1%           15              7.67
Sonnanstine    5.63 46.1%           15              6.92
Niemann    4.81 44.4%           14              6.21
Kazmir    5.93 43.4%           10              4.34
Matsuzaka    3.75 68.0%             6              4.08
Hughes    6.25 49.4%             7              3.46
Masterson    6.23 38.2%             8              3.05
Wang    7.40 30.6%             7              2.14
Price    5.82 34.0%             6              2.04

Team x Team

Pitcher FIP PROBw  Starts   Est. Wins 
Shields    3.79 64.4%           16            10.30
Garza    4.67 51.1%           15              7.67
Sonnanstine    5.63 46.1%           15              6.92
Niemann    4.81 44.4%           14              6.21
Kazmir    5.93 43.4%           10              4.34
Price    5.82 34.0%             6              2.04
Team    4.96 49.3%           76            37.49

 

Pitcher FIP PROBw  Starts   Est. Wins 
Beckett    3.33 73.2%           15            10.99
Lester    3.85 56.8%           15              8.51
Wakefield    4.28 59.3%           14              8.30
Penny    4.72 58.6%           14              8.21
Masterson    6.23 38.2%             8              3.05
Matsuzaka    3.75 68.0%             6              4.08
Team    4.25 59.9%           72            43.14

 

Pitcher FIP PROBw  Starts   Est. Wins 
Sabathia    3.76 70.4%           16            11.27
Pettitte    4.57 61.3%           15              9.20
Burnett    4.96 59.5%           15              8.93
Chamberlain    3.62 63.8%           13              8.30
Hughes    6.25 49.4%             7              3.46
Wang    7.40 30.6%             7              2.14
Team    4.74 59.3%           73            43.30

 

This does not include Price's fine start today, but it does factor in a start where Joba put up a .16 FIP due to only pitcher 2/3rds of an inning. 

Google Docs

RAYS

RED SOX

YANKEES

Lastly, I wanted to break this down to show the average for what should be the various starter spots.  It won't mean much quite yet, but as we get more data, it will become more meaningful, and hopefully end up with something like Graham or Matthew's (Sorry dudes I can't remember which) look last year, using tRA, to see the thresholds between the various starter spots.

Pitcher FIP PROBw  Starts   Est. Wins 
1    3.63 69%       15.7            10.85
2    4.46 59%       15.0              8.88
3    4.21 61%       13.7              8.27
4    5.04 47%       14.7              6.93
5    5.31 54%         7.7              3.96
6    6.48 34%         7.0              2.41

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