clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Estimated Wins updated through last night

New, 15 comments


It sure is nice to watch a great start.  Niemann was brilliant last night and is really showcasing himself as the sponge that can go out and soak up some innings.  I wanted to present the update Est. Wins for another reason, though.  James Shields is a FREAKING STUD.  He has thrown a sub-3.00 FIP in NINE of his eighteen starts.  According to these numbers, that means in half of his stats he has given us, AT THE MINIMUM, an 83% chance to walk out with a win.  SCORE THIS MAN SOME GD RUNS!  Garza has also pitched really well, being roughly a win behind Shields. 

Pitcher FIP PROBw  Starts   Est. Wins 
Shields    3.87 62.6%           18            11.26
Garza    4.42 60.5%           17            10.29
Niemann    4.62 47.7%           16              7.63
Sonnanstine    5.63 46.3%           15              6.95
Kazmir    5.59 46.4%           12              5.56
Price    6.68 39.6%             9              3.56
Team    4.95 52.0%           87            45.26

If you want to see progress, check this out,

Through 76 games

Pitcher FIP PROBw  Starts   Est. Wins 
Shields    3.79 64.4%           16            10.30
Garza    4.67 51.1%           15              7.67
Sonnanstine    5.63 46.1%           15              6.92
Niemann    4.81 44.4%           14              6.21
Kazmir    5.93 43.4%           10              4.34
Price    5.82 34.0%             6              2.04
Team    4.96 49.3%           76            37.49

 

Through 80 games

Pitcher FIP PROBw  Starts   Est. Wins 
Shields    3.96 61.5%           17            10.46
Garza    4.60 52.5%           16              8.40
Sonnanstine    5.63 46.3%           15              6.95
Niemann    4.74 46.2%           15              6.93
Kazmir    5.93 43.4%           10              4.34
Price    5.59 37.3%             7              2.61
Team    4.94 49.6%           80            39.69

 

Through 83 games

Pitcher FIP PROBw  Starts   Est. Wins 
Shields    3.96 61.5%           17            10.46
Garza    4.42 56.1%           17              9.53
Sonnanstine    5.63 46.3%           15              6.95
Niemann    4.74 46.2%           15              6.93
Kazmir    5.75 44.6%           11              4.90
Price    7.36 33.4%             8              2.67
Team    5.06 49.9%           83            41.45

 

The Team PROBw increasing is what I like to see. 

I also put this stuff together this morning while messing around on FanGraphs, take from it what you will:

Rays_month_2_month_fip_medium