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The Carl Crawford Trade Talk Summary

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Because that thread went 600 comments and it's easier to sum up the points made for future reference than to reread the thread.

The math:

Offense

Crawford: .353 wOBA projected rest of the way

Joyce .327 wOBA projected rest of the way

League average wOBA: .328

Over 300 plate appearances, the difference is ~6.5 runs.

Defense

Crawford 9.9 UZR/150 in LF (736 INN)

Joyce career 12.5 UZR/150 in LF (409 INN)

Joyce probably isn't a 13 run defender over 150 games and even if you think he's average, the difference is about 3 runs over the rest of the season. 

Overall

6.5 + 3 = 9.5 runs, or roughly a win. That number shrinks by the game.

The main arguments for/against

Trade Crawford

-  Return is similar to the Mark Teixeira deal. Or at least closer to Teixeira than Jason Bay.

- Helping team in the future is worth the difference this year.

- Payroll strain would be eased.

- Other aspects of the team regressing, like the rotation, might make the Crawford less negligible.

- It's Friedman, he's not getting hoodwinked on a major piece.

Do not trade Crawford

- Perception. People may stop going to games/buying jerseys, etc.

- Trading present value for potential value. In a tight division present value means a ton.

- Potentially trading positional players for pitching prospects.

- Choosing prospects over draft picks.