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The Carl Crawford Trade Talk Summary

Because that thread went 600 comments and it's easier to sum up the points made for future reference than to reread the thread.

The math:


Crawford: .353 wOBA projected rest of the way

Joyce .327 wOBA projected rest of the way

League average wOBA: .328

Over 300 plate appearances, the difference is ~6.5 runs.


Crawford 9.9 UZR/150 in LF (736 INN)

Joyce career 12.5 UZR/150 in LF (409 INN)

Joyce probably isn't a 13 run defender over 150 games and even if you think he's average, the difference is about 3 runs over the rest of the season. 


6.5 + 3 = 9.5 runs, or roughly a win. That number shrinks by the game.

The main arguments for/against

Trade Crawford

-  Return is similar to the Mark Teixeira deal. Or at least closer to Teixeira than Jason Bay.

- Helping team in the future is worth the difference this year.

- Payroll strain would be eased.

- Other aspects of the team regressing, like the rotation, might make the Crawford less negligible.

- It's Friedman, he's not getting hoodwinked on a major piece.

Do not trade Crawford

- Perception. People may stop going to games/buying jerseys, etc.

- Trading present value for potential value. In a tight division present value means a ton.

- Potentially trading positional players for pitching prospects.

- Choosing prospects over draft picks.