Good news: Pat Burrell is no longer on pace to produce the worst ISO drop since the 1950s.
Bad news: He's still on pace to drop .118 points.
Double-edged sword news: He's likely to improve next year, but it may not be by much. Also: a sword with two edges, how nifty.
I took everyone since 1950 with ISO drops within 0.005 points of Burrell's either way (meaning .113-.123) and input their ISO from the year of the drop and the year afterwards. Somehow, it worked out to 30 cases exactly. The average ISO of those players in the down year is .139 which amusingly mimics Burrell's current power production. Two players retired following the down year (Steve Boros and Greg Luzinski) but the other 28 who moved on averaged a bounce back with an average ISO of .185.
To put faces on those numbers, they went from this to this.
That seems like a fair swap. The disappointing aspect is that if Burrell follows suite, then we won't be getting the guy we signed up for. The positive is Burrell may finish with an ISO way higher than .139. HitTracker has his average home run distance further than last year and average speed off bat essentially equal. His HR/FB is down, BABIP is static, and LD% is down, which makes you question whether his ability to drive the ball has dissipated, but baseball players generally don't lose this much skill this quickly which leaves me unconvinced that Burrell is toast.
(Full llist of players used in this piece after the jump)
| N | Age | Player | ISO Drop | N ISO | N+1 ISO |
| 2002 | 26 | J.D. Drew | -0.114 | 0.177 | 0.223 |
| 1973 | 30 | Mike Epstein | -0.114 | 0.142 | 0.226 |
| 1997 | 28 | Gary Sheffield | -0.114 | 0.196 | 0.222 |
| 2005 | 37 | Vinny Castilla | -0.114 | 0.15 | 0.091 |
| 2007 | 33 | Nomar Garciaparra | -0.114 | 0.088 | 0.202 |
| 1980 | 28 | Butch Hobson | -0.114 | 0.121 | 0.101 |
| 1954 | 31 | Gus Zernial | -0.115 | 0.161 | 0.254 |
| 1964 | 27 | Steve Boros | -0.115 | 0.065 | DNP |
| 2000 | 32 | Vinny Castilla | -0.116 | 0.087 | 0.207 |
| 1978 | 28 | Mike Schmidt | -0.116 | 0.184 | 0.311 |
| 1992 | 30 | Kevin Mitchell | -0.117 | 0.142 | 0.26 |
| 1974 | 40 | Hank Aaron | -0.118 | 0.223 | 0.121 |
| 1988 | 32 | Jack Clark | -0.119 | 0.191 | 0.217 |
| 1988 | 26 | Wally Joyner | -0.119 | 0.124 | 0.138 |
| 1988 | 28 | George Bell | -0.119 | 0.177 | 0.161 |
| 1971 | 33 | Willie McCovey | -0.12 | 0.203 | 0.19 |
| 1971 | 29 | Jimmy Wynn | -0.12 | 0.092 | 0.197 |
| 1952 | 31 | Wally Westlake | -0.12 | 0.076 | 0.165 |
| 1962 | 28 | Jim Gentile | -0.12 | 0.224 | 0.181 |
| 2007 | 35 | Ray Durham | -0.12 | 0.125 | 0.143 |
| 1958 | 33 | Del Ennis | -0.12 | 0.089 | 0.112 |
| 1976 | 30 | Bobby Bonds | -0.12 | 0.049 | 0.256 |
| 1958 | 31 | Duke Snider | -0.12 | 0.193 | 0.227 |
| 1984 | 33 | Greg Luzinski | -0.121 | 0.126 | DNP |
| 1986 | 26 | Mike Young | -0.121 | 0.119 | 0.165 |
| 1971 | 23 | Bernie Carbo | -0.122 | 0.12 | 0.111 |
| 1962 | 27 | Roger Maris | -0.122 | 0.229 | 0.273 |
| 2002 | 36 | Ruben Sierra | -0.122 | 0.099 | 0.15 |
| 1965 | 30 | Felix Mantilla | -0.123 | 0.141 | 0.152 |
| 2001 | 32 | Travis Fryman | -0.123 | 0.072 | 0.133 |