Let's start with the pitch surveying this time.
Fastball
Average velocity: 91.7 MPH
Top-end velocity: 95.8 MPH
Usage: 72.5%
Ball: 34.6%
In play: 22.7%
Foul: 21.1%
Swinging strike: 4.2%
N =1299
Curveball
Average velocity: 77.6 MPH
Low-end velocity: 69.7 MPH
Usage: 15.6%
Ball: 45.7%
In Play: 12.9%
Foul: 12.5%
Swinging strike: 11.8%
N= 280
Slider
Average velocity: 82.4 MPH
Low-end velocity: 75.6 MPH
Usage: 8.8%
Ball: 31.6%
In Play: 17.1%
Foul: 15.8%
Swinging strike: 10.1%
N= 158
Change-up
Average velocity: 82.5 MPH
Low-end velocity: 79 MPH
Usage: 3%
Ball: 54.5%
In Play: 7.5%
Foul: 15.1%
Swinging strike: 16.9%
N= 53
Table form:
| Pitch | Velocity | Usage | Ball | In Play | Foul | SwStr |
| FB | 91.7 | 72.5 | 34.6 | 22.7 | 21.1 | 4.2 |
| CU | 77.6 | 15.6 | 45.7 | 12.9 | 12.5 | 11.8 |
| SL | 82.4 | 8.8 | 31.6 | 17.1 | 15.8 | 10.1 |
| CH | 82.5 | 3 | 54.5 | 7.5 | 15.1 | 16.9 |
Analysis after the jump.
Let's look at the obvious: Niemann's fastball misses few bats. Despite the impressive top-end velocity, the fine average velocity, and the mix of two and four-seamers (more on that later) it's an extremely hittable pitch. You may be asking "Well how hittable is it?" I think if you polled most people on which Rays starter had the most hittable fastballs, 97% would say Andy Sonnanstine, 2% don't watch baseball, and the other 1% consists of non-conformists. Sonnanstine has thrown 731 fastballs (cutters, two/four seamers, so on) and 43 resulted in swings and misses.
43/731 = 0.0588
*100 = 5.88%
This year Sonnanstine's fastballs are less hittable than Jeff Niemann's. Perhaps I'm focusing on velocity too much, but something is wrong when a right-handed pitcher who tops out at 89 MPH is getting more whiffs than someone with a fastball that licks 95. To Niemann's credit, his fastball whiff rate is getting progressively better. In his last five appearances 20 whiffs have been generated; only 34 were caused in the 15 prior.
| App | FB | Whiffs |
| 1 | 70 | 0 |
| 2 | 57 | 2 |
| 3 | 65 | 1 |
| 4 | 71 | 5 |
| 5 | 48 | 2 |
| 6 | 56 | 1 |
| 7 | 57 | 0 |
| 8 | 88 | 1 |
| 9 | 67 | 6 |
| 10 | 37 | 2 |
| 11 | 70 | 6 |
| 12 | 70 | 3 |
| 13 | 72 | 5 |
| 14 | 61 | 0 |
| 15 | 71 | 0 |
| 16 | 30 | 3 |
| 17 | 77 | 7 |
| 18 | 73 | 2 |
| 19 | 71 | 3 |
| 20 | 88 | 5 |
I would love to tell you the breakdown by fastball type, especially by seams, but identifying two and four seamers with Niemann is a chore. Here's a look at his fastballs with the supposed two-seamers circled:
Maybe some other day for that aspect...
The good news is Niemann's other pitches are all pretty good. Please continue to throw them more.