Ben Zobrist is about to accomplish something that only 28 other players have done since 2002, complete a 7+ WAR (Wins Above Replacement) season. Zorilla is the only Ray to accomplish this feat. The big question is what this means for Zobrist's future. The first, and least likely possibility is to have future 7+ Win Seasons. This is an elite club consisting of the following 9 players:
| Player | Years 7+ WAR |
| Albert Pujols |
7 |
| Alex Rodriguez |
4 |
| Chase Utley |
4 |
| Barry Bonds |
3 |
| Scott Rolen |
3 |
| Andruw Jones |
2 |
| Chipper Jones |
2 |
| David Wright |
2 |
| Hanley Ramirez |
2 |
Clearly this is a difficult feat. So the next question is how big a drop-off can be expected? If we look at the 20 players who have achieved a single 7+ WAR season-to-date, how did they respond in the following year? In the case of players who achieved their 7+ WAR season after 30 years of age, we will use how they fared in the preceding year.
| Name |
Batting |
WAR |
Year |
Year Before |
Year After |
|
Ben Zobrist |
34 |
7.4 |
2009 |
|
? |
|
Grady Sizemore |
35.6 |
7.5 |
2006 |
|
5.8 |
|
Curtis Granderson |
36.4 |
7.4 |
2007 |
|
3.8 |
|
Bret Boone |
38.6 |
7.3 |
2003 |
3.8 |
|
|
Jorge Posada |
43 |
7.1 |
2007 |
4.7 |
|
|
Carlos Beltran |
44.4 |
7 |
2006 |
|
4.9 |
|
Matt Holliday |
49.9 |
7.9 |
2007 |
|
6.2 |
|
Manny Ramirez |
51.3 |
7.3 |
2003 |
6 |
|
|
Vladimir Guerrero |
51.7 |
7.7 |
2002 |
|
4 |
|
Joe Mauer |
54 |
7.7 |
2009 |
5.7** |
|
|
Adrian Beltre |
55.3 |
10 |
2004 |
|
2.5 |
|
J.D. Drew |
55.4 |
8.3 |
2004 |
|
2.9 |
|
Jim Edmonds |
56.4 |
8.1 |
2004 |
6.4 |
|
|
Gary Sheffield |
60.1 |
7.4 |
2003 |
4.4 |
|
|
Ryan Howard |
60.6 |
7 |
2006 |
|
4.3 |
|
Magglio Ordonez |
61 |
8.9 |
2007 |
2.4 |
|
|
Brian Giles |
63.2 |
7.5 |
2002 |
|
4.9* |
|
Jason Giambi |
65.5 |
7.3 |
2002 |
|
5* |
|
Derrek Lee |
66.4 |
7.4 |
2005 |
2.9 |
|
|
Jim Thome |
68.3 |
7.2 |
2002 |
|
4.8* |
*Used the year after b/c no WAR available for 2001
**Used the year before b/c 2010 has not occurred
This gives the preceding/followup season of one-time 7+ Win seasons a distribution of:
| 2 WAR | 4 |
| 3 WAR | 1 |
| 4 WAR | 7 |
| 5 WAR | 3 |
| 6 WAR | 3 |
The player with the lowest amount of Wins derived from offense seem to settle in nicely in the 4 Win range with limited volatility. Zobrist has the lowest amount of offensive runs on the list.
One final note, of all the players who have achieved a 7+ WAR season, Zo seems to have the most in common with Chase Utley.
| Name | Batting | Fielding | Replacement | Positional | WAR | |
| Chase Utley | 32.4 | 19 | 20.9 | 1.5 | 7.4 | 2005 |
| Chase Utley | 44.2 | 15.7 | 20.4 | 1.9 | 8 | 2007 |
| Chase Utley | 45.3 | 10.6 | 21.7 | 2.3 | 8 | 2009 |
| Chase Utley | 34.6 | 20.5 | 23.6 | 2.3 | 8.1 | 2008 |
| Ben Zobrist | 34 | 22.3 | 18.6 | -0.8 | 7.4 | 2009 |
If Zo can maintain excellent defense at 2B in the range of 10<x<20, a 4.5-5.5 win season seems like anice starting point for expectations.