I Hate to See You Go, But I Love to Watch 'em Leave

In the past week, there has been a persistent teeth-gnashing in the Bay Area (and abroad) about the departures of Ray favorites Carlos Pena, Jason Bartlett, Carl Crawford, and (to a lesser extent) Dioner Navarro. Search "#Rays" on Twitter, and you'll see the spectrum of bemoaning player departures, wishing them ill-will, blaming "cheap owners" or attendance, or just good old fashion whining. The pervasive attitude appears to be that the Rays' front office is content to let the team, and the community, down by sinking back in to nothingness. Hell, even the national sportswriters are pinning the team's latest obituary. 

I come to you, though, to deliver the Good News that while the faces may change, this team's chances at competing have not. Apart from CC what have we lost? Let's take a step back, and objectively look at what's here and what's gone and see where we stand as an organization after the looting and razing has been done by the Vandals.

The departure of Dioner Navarro is the easiest to swallow. A key cog in the 2008 pennant run, he not only fell on hard times on the field since the Magical Season, but he also lost favor in the eyes of many fans with a surly attitude and seemingly leaving his team out to dry. The emergence of John Jaso makes it pretty easy to say sayonara to the portly catcher who hasn't posted a season above replacement level since his 2008 All-Star campaign. It's pretty easy to replace replacement level production, so I don't think anyone will miss his on-the-field contribution. Net loss? Nothing.

Moving on up, the WAR-meter as well as stature, we have Jason Bartlett or MVB- as his irony-loving detractors refer to him. Last year was a down year for the 2009 breakout sensation and 2008 team MVP, and he didn't provide a ton of value to the team that won 96 games. Looking at his trends the past few years, it seems the light-hitting, slick-fielding short stop lost a step. With his defense declining, it's a bit easier to say goodbye, but we still all remember the great year he had in 2009. Considering, though, that over the last three years his bat has only amassed 14 batting runs above average. In other words, almost all his value his tied to his ability to play SS and play it well, and we all know we have another younger shortstop with a slicker glove (and slicker dance moves). We'll miss Bartlett's bat against the lefties, as it seems the young Brignac will have his growing pains against these freaks, but I have little doubt that Brignac's plus-defense and handedness advantage will give him the better overall numbers going forward. Net loss? Slight, likely due to platooning advantages rather than true downgrade; after all, Briggy had a higher WAR last year in less time.

While :)% is one of the most important stats for children and hospice patients, it isn't quite as important to winning baseball games. Carlos Pena is a great guy. At one time, he even had a great year, but it's been a while. Carlos Pena's 2007 is the single greatest offensive season by a Rays' player. The last two years, though, Pena has seen the shift (and old player skills) erode his offensive firepower. He was a 1-win player in 2010. That's right Carlos Pena was 1 win below average in 2010. That's the kind of production that's pretty easy to replace. Of the 4 AL playoff teams, only the aforementioned Bartlett, Michael Cuddyer, and Jason Kubel were worse in seeing more than 100 games. Last year in his limited action, Dan Johnson had a higher wOBA than Pena by a decent margin. We also may see more production from the first base position if the Rays sign a FA or commit to platooning the position to squeeze every last bit of production out of it. Look at it this way, last year Pena's wOBA against LHP was an abysmal .305 which is below average for any hitter let alone a first basemen. Net loss? Liek Bartlett, I think the net loss is slight at best from what he'll do going forward, but it should be a net gain from what he provided last year.

Now things get stickier. How do you replace Carl Crawford? Well replacing 2010 Carl Crawford is damn near impossible. After all, 7 win players don't just grow on trees. But guess what? In 2008 when the Rays won the AL East and went to the World Series, Carl Crawford wasn't very good. He was hurt, and he only provided 2.5 wins to the best team in the AL. So it can be done. I don't expect Desmond Jennings to come in and finish in the top 10 of the MVP voting and win a Gold Glove. I do expect to get great LF defense, some stolen bases, and  a decent OBP from the rookie. Is 2.5 wins too much to ask? I don't really think so. This will be a tough blow to the team, but it will not be an insurmountable one. Net loss? I'd guess we lose about 3 wins from CC's 3-year average (5 WAR). 

The bullpen is the other big issue. The problem is we have no idea what we would have gotten from all the returners anyway, nor do we know who will even be in next year's bullpen. Putting a figure on that one is tough, but let's take a look at what last year's bullpen did provide. Despite having one of the greatest bullpens in the league, they still only provided 4.1 unleveraged wins. Throw in leverage, and it gets a bit tougher. The thing is, though, as good as the bullpen was it was a bullpen composed of relief pitchers. Relief pitchers are fungible. Many of them are failed starters, and guess what? The Rays have an abundance of pitching depth in the minors. If the moves we make before Spring Training aren't panning out, and the Rays are struggling to finish teams, they can always dip in to the Jake McGees, Alex Torreses(?), and Alex Cobbs to get those final outs. I think we'll see regression from the bullpen, but looking around at the playoff teams in baseball last year many of them were without big name relievers. The Rangers, Twins, Braves, and Phillies all made the playoffs with either suspect bullpens, bullpens scratched together from rookies or old veterans, or a cast of seemingly unknowns to cover injuries or departure. The Twins are the ebst example. They lost arguably the ebst closer in baseball before the season started and went on to have a great record and lower FIP than have the teams in the league.

So what does that leave us with? Well I've scratched together a rough look at who's on thee roster, and some reasonable WAR estimations to see where we are for next year. 

Alter that as you see fit, but I did that with an eye to what the players have done and not to a number I was trying to get to. Where do you see quibbles? I could see us doing better, and I could see us dong worse. The thing is, though, on paper I think we will once again be about a 90-win team. Being a 90-win team is a few good breaks for us or bad breaks for others away from being a playoff team. That's really all you can ask for, and I think it'll be a blast if the Zombie-Rays once again tear up the obituaries all the mainstream media types want to write about the Rays from Fantasyland.