In 31 plate appearances with the San Francisco Giants, Pat Burrell has raised his wOBA (weighted on-base average) to .336 from the .283 level when left Tampa Bay. His National League slash line is a robust .407/.452/.741. Without fact checking, it's unlikely Burrell had a more productive stretch during his 572 plate appearances with the Rays which left me pondering how have the players who changed leagues fared versus their 2009 production and against their wOBA Marcels projection?
To be considered, a player must have had 100 plate appearances in both 2009 and 2010. First the six players who jumped to the American League:
|
Yr/Yr |
Vs Proj |
|
|
Austin Kearns |
0.092 |
0.076 |
|
Orlando Hudson |
0.020 |
0.018 |
|
Jason Kendall |
0.000 |
0.004 |
|
Jim Thome |
-0.003 |
0.004 |
|
Miguel Tejada |
-0.051 |
-0.032 |
|
Garrett Atkins |
-0.028 |
-0.067 |
|
Average |
0.005 |
0.001 |
So Austin Kearns and Orlando Hudson have surpassed both 2009 and expectations, while the two players who came to the American League East Tejada and Atkins have failed miserably. On average, the group has played to their projection and slightly improved on 2009. What about the new National Leaguers?:
|
Yr/Yr |
Vs Proj |
Type |
|
|
Aubrey Huff |
0.102 |
0.067 |
|
|
Miguel Olivo |
0.065 |
0.086 |
B |
|
Eric Hinske |
0.060 |
0.072 |
|
|
Marlon Byrd |
0.055 |
0.054 |
B |
|
Rod Barajas |
0.048 |
0.031 |
B |
|
Placido Palanco |
0.035 |
0.026 |
|
|
Melvin Mora |
0.034 |
0.018 |
B |
|
Jamey Carroll |
0.010 |
0.018 |
|
|
Gregg Zaun |
0.000 |
0.015 |
B |
|
Orlando Cabrera |
-0.012 |
-0.014 |
|
|
Bobby Crosby |
-0.013 |
-0.018 |
|
|
Adam Kennedy |
-0.024 |
0.000 |
|
|
Jason Bay |
-0.034 |
-0.005 |
A |
|
Jerry Hairston JR |
-0.046 |
-0.054 |
|
|
Aki Iwamura |
-0.079 |
-0.070 |
|
|
Average |
0.013 |
0.015 |
Huff, Hinske, Barajas, and Mora, all ALE defectors have outperformed. Gregg Zaun is in-line with 2009, but exceeding expectations. Jason Bay and Jerry Hairston have significant park factor swings working against them, which leaves Aki as sole defector without an excuse (injury?). The group as a whole improved their wOBA .013 year/year and .015 vs. the projection.
It should surprise no one that 15 of the 21 league jumpers headed to the National League in 2010. If I'm looking for free agent scraps, average ALE retreads may appear un-sexy on the surface, but often will outperform their National League peers with glossier stats.