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Random Thoughts on Wade Davis

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  • Here's something for perspective. Wade Davis is 24 years old and has 111 innings of major league experience under his belt. Roughly three-fourths of that experience has come this season alongside a 5.09 xFIP. In 2008, Edwin Jackson was 24 years old and had more than 300 major league innings. He posted a 5.03 xFIP for the season. No matter what those with selective memory wish to claim, he didn't get better as the season went along either:

April: 4.70 xFIP

May: 4.74

June: 5.52

July: 5.50

August: 5.44

September/October: 4.29

  • The Rays won the division even with Jackson making a start every five days. Don't take that as a sign that Davis should remain in the rotation. Frankly, Davis is one odd bird. He's near the top of the league in foul balls and infield fly percentages; which would suggest that batters have issues when it comes to squaring him up, and yet he's not getting a ton of whiffs and he's giving up more than the league average amount of home runs.
  • Coming into his last start, Davis had a 15:1 June strikeout-to-walk ratio.  He walked five Padres in 22 plate appearances, something that had a ridiculously small probability of happening. He's never walked five in a MLB start before and the last time he walked at least four came in April. Three of his previous four starts had included Davis throwing at least 65% strikes. And yet, on this night? A paltry 56%; his second worst figure on the season.
  • I'm not suggesting he's better than Jeremy Hellickson, but I think the rush to dethrone Davis of a rotation spot after his last start might be a bit of an overreaction to what, by all appearances, is a highly improbable outcome. If you wanted the swap made before last start, no biggie, if not, hold off on the pitchforks for a little bit longer.