If, in the beginning of the season, you had told me that as of mid-July Dan Wheeler would have the highest strikout rate of anyone in the bullpen on opening day (in other words, non-Benoit division), I would have assumed that your time machine was broken. However, that is the case, with Dan the Man currently holding a stellar 10.31 K/9 rate, leaving Randy Choate and Grant Balfour well behind (9.26 and 9.0 respectively). In addition to his new and improved strikeout rate, Wheeler also is sporting a career best FIP (3.15), xFIP (3.49), and career-with-the-Rays best tERA (3.51).
So, what's going on here? Is he getting a bit lucky, or has the 33 year-old found something new?
If you ask ZIPS (Fangraphs' handy in-season projection system) the K/9 rate is a bit phony, as ZIPS projects Wheeler falling back to 8.28 for the rest of the season. Correspondingly, ZIPS sees Wheeler pitching to a 4.20 FIP for the rest of the year, more than a run lower than his current mark. Also, this is because of the regression ZIPS is predicting on his HR/9 rate, as it is predicting a jump from 0.91 (current) to 1.44 for the rest of the year.
But I see a couple issues with believing the projections and assuming that Wheeler will regress to his former self; namely, I don't think Wheeler is the same pitcher he has been in recent years. So for the sake of argument, let's look at the differences between 2009 and 2010 Wheeler:
|
K/9 |
BB/9 |
HR/9 |
FB% |
FIP |
|
|
2009 |
7.02 |
1.4 |
1.72 |
55.9% |
4.48 |
|
2010 |
10.31 |
2.73 |
0.91 |
47.4% |
3.15 |
|
Career |
8.06 |
2.76 |
1.2 |
45.6% |
4.05 |
|
Pitch (%) |
FB |
SL |
CT |
CB |
CH |
|
2009 |
55.0% |
27.1% |
0.0% |
9.4% |
8.4% |
|
2010 |
46.8% |
10.9% |
27.5% |
11.1% |
3.8% |
|
Pitch Value (w/C) |
FB |
SL |
CT |
CB |
CH |
|
2009 |
2.02 |
0.69 |
0 |
2.43 |
-2.68 |
|
2010 |
0.33 |
4.55 |
-1.88 |
4.39 |
7.27 |
There seems to be a significant change in Wheeler’s pitch selection this year, which has so far led to some great results. Throwing a cutter, which he did not even throw once last year, more than a quarter of the time this year could be the missing link. Is this a pitch classification change by BIS, or is this a significant change in his approach? It's probably a bit of both. While his cutter has been a negative pitch in terms of Fangraphs’ pitch value numbers, every one of his off-speed offerings have become much more effective. Now, this may just be grasping at straws, as pitch-type linear weights are not the best predictive tool, but it’s possible that by using that cutter, Wheeler has found a way to improve his other pitches. Also, this could be a factor in improved pitch sequencing by Wheeler, as his cutter may set up his breaking pitches better than his fastball has in previous years. Unfortunately, that isn’t something we can quantify, but there could be some truth to it.
It’s also possible that all of this is nothing, and Wheeler will end up somewhere near his numbers from past years with the Rays, but I’m inclined to believe that Wheeler has found a new route to success. This new approach could have finally helped him fix his problem with the longball that has plagued his career with the Rays. His current rate of 0.91 HR/9 is well below his career mark of 1.20, but is not all that unreasonable of a home run rate in and of itself (unlike, say, Balfour’s current mark of 0.23 HR/9). He is also giving up less flyballs this year (47.4% from 55.9% in 09), which bodes well for him keeping his HR/9 rate under control.
But if we keep digging deeper, and attack the splits section of Fangraphs, there is another explanation; Joe Maddon has managed to maximize Wheeler’s value by using him primarily against right-handed hitters, as his career numbers illustrate:
|
FIP |
xFIP |
K/9 |
HR/9 |
|
|
v LHH |
4.79 |
4.80 |
6.55 |
1.35 |
|
v RHH |
3.42 |
3.53 |
9.03 |
1.05 |
In fact, Wheeler has only faced 21 LHH this season, while facing 100 RHH. Comparing this to his other seasons with the Rays...
|
RHH Faced |
LHH Faced |
Total Batters Faced |
LHH % |
|
|
2008 |
161 |
103 |
264 |
39.02% |
|
2009 |
155 |
64 |
219 |
29.22% |
|
2010 |
100 |
21 |
121 |
17.36% |
It seems Maddon has finally figured out how to use Wheeler, as the significant drop in left-handed hitters faced goes right along with his career-best numbers this year. I would still be willing to bet that his change in approach has at least a wee bit to do with his success this year, but Maddon seems to deserve most of the credit for Wheeler's fantastic season. He may not be quite the bullpen ace that he appears on first glance, but he certainly is a ROOGY extraordinaire.
*All stats courtesy of Fangraphs.com
*I want to take a second to give a shout out of thanks to Tommy, Erik, Steve, FreeZo, and everyone else at DRaysBay for giving me an opportunity here. This has been one of my favorite web sites for years, and I feel honored to be able to contribute to it.