During a recent conversation with Jason Collette, he mentioned that Jayson Werth's slash line (AVG/OBP/SLG) with runners in scoring position has been well below average this year. It seems ironic the Rays would try to acquire a player to help "get the man in" when the perception is he struggles with doing so on his current team.
With that premise in mind, I decided to run a similar exercise on run production to the one I did earlier this week. This time looking at some of the reported Rays' targets as well as some DRB hopefuls.
*Please keep in mind these are simply this year's numbers and not an indicator of career performance
|
|
PA/RISP |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
|
Werth |
116 |
0.159 |
0.336 |
0.305 |
|
Fielder |
118 |
0.18 |
0.381 |
0.247 |
|
Hart |
106 |
0.267 |
0.349 |
0.489 |
|
Dunn |
108 |
0.211 |
0.324 |
0.389 |
|
Scott |
72 |
0.143 |
0.208 |
0.222 |
Based on slash lines with runners in scoring position, Corey Hart would be the best candidate for a GTMI upgrade. Collette's observation about Werth's terrible slash line with RISP is correct, but Luke Scott has been worse. Of course, we just saw what Scott can do when no runners are on-base, and that's pretty nifty.
That said, do these assumptions hold true when we look at situational data using base runners and base runners scored?
|
|
BR |
BRs |
% |
|
Werth |
262 |
38 |
15 |
|
Fielder |
282 |
23 |
8 |
|
Hart |
261 |
50 |
19 |
|
Dunn |
255 |
39 |
15 |
|
Scott |
176 |
21 |
12 |
Looking at this set of numbers, Werth is actually league average (15%) in terms of base runners scored. One possible reason is he excels at productive outs (advancing runners) with a 36% mark (league average is 26%). This includes eight sacrifice flies. Once again, Hart remains captain clutch while his teammate, Prince Fielder, comes in way below average. Scott remains near the bottom - although with a smaller sample size.
The final category is runners on third with less than two outs.
|
|
BR/3/2Out |
Scored |
% |
|
Werth |
25 |
12 |
48 |
|
Fielder |
22 |
4 |
18 |
|
Hart |
15 |
12 |
80 |
|
Dunn |
27 |
15 |
59 |
|
Scott |
17 |
9 |
53 |
Okay, now Hart is just showing off. His mark of 80% runners scored is well above the league average of 50%, and tied with Aaron Rowand for best in the big leagues (min. 15 runners). Conversely, Fielder's run production continues to be underwhelming. For comparisons sake, Fielder's 18% score rate with runners on third and less than two outs is six percent below B.J. Upton's 24% - a number that was by far the worst on the Rays.
Again, there are a lot of things in play here. I could list many factors in addition to the league adjustments, and the cost of players given up in an actual trade. Meanwhile, based on this set of data, Corey Hart would be quite the upgrade in the GTMI category.