The Whiff: Jeff Niemann's Swing and Miss Pitch(es)

While watching Friday's abbreviated game between the Rays and the Indians, I noticed something from Jeff Niemann. Despite the less-than-favorable strikeout rate overall, when Niemann needed a swing and a miss, he had the ability (pitches) to get it.

Overall, Niemann is striking out a below-average 6.59 batters per nine innings (K/P) (league average 7.02). His 7.8% swinging strike rate is also below league average (8.4%). However, Niemann does posses a pitch or two that can generate a whiff.

According to MLB Advanced Media, the pitch is generally called a change-up. However, according to BIS (think fangraphs), it is a split-finger fastball. Both pitches are very similar in speed and movement - causing the classification issues. Perhaps RZ, or someone which an expanded knowledge of pitch f/x, could do a better classification job for us.

Regardless of the name, when Niemann throws his change-up/split-finger fastball, it usually ends well for the Rays and bad for the opposing hitter.

In Friday's game, the pitch was classified as a change-up while Brian Anderson called it a split over the Rays' broadcast. Gameday says Niemann threw 13 change-up and two splits. He registered four whiffs on the fifteen pitches (27%).

The pitch f/x data from texasleaguers.com says Niemann has thrown 107 change-ups this year at an average velocity of 85 mph. Of the 107 change-ups thrown, 19 of them (17.8%) have been swung on and missed. Overall, the pitch has gone for a strike nearly 72% of the time.

Using the same database, the Big Nyquil has thrown 37 split-fingered fastballs. The average speed of 85 mph matches that of the change-up. He has induced a whiff 10 times - or 27% of pitches thrown. In terms of overall strikes, Niemann's split-finger has a 73% strike rate.

The bulk of Niemann's change-ups and split-fingers have come against left-handed batters. We've seen James Shields use his devastating change-up as an equalizer against lefties. With the amount of success - albeit small sample size - Niemann is having, hopefully he continues follow Shields' lead and possibly increases the usage a bit more.

Looking at the splits, Niemann's 5.00 FIP (fielding independent pitching) against lefties is much higher than his 3.71 FIP against righties. Meanwhile, Niemann is actually striking out slightly more left-handed batters than right-handed. That said, Niemann's walk rate is more than double against lefties and his home run rate is not far behind. If Niemann could incorporate more of his swing and miss pitches against lefties (and maybe overall), perhaps the Big Nyquil could lull even more hitters to sleep.