Tampa Bay Rays Pitchers and Getting The Man Out

The majority of the past few weeks have focused on the Rays' offense and getting the man in, or lack there of. Meanwhile, in my own little world, I have been paying attention to getting the man out - especially with two outs. It occurred to me during the Atlanta Braves series that the Rays give up a lot of two out base runners- or at least that was my perception.

To me, the Rays' pitchers - starters mostly - got two quick outs and then struggled to register the third out in the inning. The tipping point that pushed this from a passing thought in my head to research topic came during Monday's game when Matt Garza allowed four runs on five hits and a walk while throwing 49 pitches with two outs in the third inning. C'mon, Matt...get the man out.

That said, I decided to check the numbers, as we commonly do around here, to see if my thoughts were simple overreaction or actually something plaguing the pitching staff.

Here are the league average numbers by outs.

	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
0 Out	0.266	0.327	0.421	0.748
1 Out	0.260	0.326	0.412	0.738
2 Out	0.247	0.327	0.382	0.709

Here are the Rays average numbers by outs

	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
0 Out	0.267	0.320	0.430	0.750
1 Out	0.234	0.295	0.392	0.687
2 Out	0.222	0.301	0.372	0.673

*Note: both sets include relief pitchers.

In general, my theory was off. The Rays, as a staff, have done better than average with two outs. On the other hand, most of the struggles I remember have come from starting pitching, and not the fantastic relief group, who's numbers are included in the teams total.

With that in mind, here are the individual breakdowns for the five Rays' starters. Again, this is an imperfect comparison since league average includes relievers, but still gives us a better idea than my twitter rants about GTMO.

Shields	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
0 Out	0.345	0.381	0.509	0.890
1 Out	0.241	0.260	0.426	0.686
2 Out	0.255	0.318	0.461	0.779

James Shields - The 0 out line is terrible, but not surprising. Until Shields decides to throw something other than a first pitch fastball, hitters are going to jump on him. In addition to the 0 out troubles, his OPS against with two outs is above-average in a bad way.

Price	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
0 Out	0.264	0.331	0.431	0.762
1 Out	0.185	0.277	0.323	0.60
2 Out	0.207	0.284	0.240	0.524

David Price - Obviously, whatever two-out problems the team may have do not come from Price. When Price gets the two outs in an inning, he does not mess around. In fact, Price with two outs is the best split among starters in any out situation. If he could only use less pitches in doing so.

Garza	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
0 Out	0.298	0.335	0.464	0.799
1 Out	0.246	0.322	0.403	0.725
2 Out	0.233	0.338	0.425	0.763

Matt Garza - Similar to Shields, Garza's biggest problems come with no outs and two outs. With the amount of quality pitches in his arsenal, this just shouldn't happen. Since his BAA (batting average against) is the lowest with two outs, but his OBP is highest, this suggests that he does too much "dancing" with two outs instead of focusing on GTMO.

Niemann	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
0 Out	0.197	0.254	0.326	0.580
1 Out	0.252	0.311	0.430	0.741
2 Out	0.205	0.279	0.350	0.629

Jeff Niemann - Niemann nearly scores above-average marks across the board, but especially in regards to getting the first man out. Like Price, whatever two-out problems there may be do not involve Niemann.

Davis	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
0 Out	0.230	0.296	0.451	0.747
1 Out	0.298	0.363	0.482	0.845
2 Out	0.284	0.376	0.486	0.862

Wade Davis - Ugh. Davis does a decent job of keeping men off base to start an inning, but is getting smacked around after that - most notably with two outs. An .862 OPS against after retiring two men is not helping ease any frustrations we have with Davis.

Of course this little study does not include game situations like score or runners on base, so again take it as you may. However, when looking at Shields and Garza, you could say my hypothesis was partially correctly - and definitely correct when it comes to Davis. I guess three out of five isn't bad. Well, actually it is bad when the theory is pointing out a potential flaw. Getting the man in is definitely important to the team's success, but getting the man out - especially when you've already gotten two before him - is important as well.

Hopefully, the Rays' trio improve on this and soon.