clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

The Rays DID Hit Better

New, comments
Things are looking up, and Elliot Johnson knows it.
Things are looking up, and Elliot Johnson knows it.

Typically when my prophecies come true, it's a mournful, terrible day. When it comes to baseball, it appears I'm a pessimist. Well, yesterday, I predicted the Rays' hitters would improve as a whole through the end of the season. Well, they did.

In case you were doing something crazy like watching preseason NFL football (srsly: y?), the Rays took CC Sabathia yard a whopping five times in yesterday's 5-1 win. Well, needless to say, that somewhat changes my predictions.

I've updated the data from that last post (see below the jump) and tweaked a few things. The result: I no longer predict the Rays will hit 11% better through the end of the season; I anticipate a 13% improvement.

For context, that's like the Rays lineup going from the Astros (91 wRC+) to Miguel Cabrera and the Tigers (104 wRC+) overnight. Or: The Rays going from 9th best offense to 3rd best offense, trailing only the Yankees and Red Sox.

If that happens: Oh baby.

Notable changes:

  • Elliot Johnson has less than 200 PAs in the majors. As such, his career BABIP and 2011 BABIP are nearly indistinguishable. So, I just used his ZIPS rest-of-season BABIP projection (close to .300, which makes sense given his speed). This significantly improves his outlooks (actually, it gives him outlooks; the previous present suggest present = future, which seems unlikely).
  • Kelly Shoppach, Sean Rodriguez, Johnny Damon, Casey Kotchman, B.J. Upton, Evan Longoria all improved their stock, albeit minimally in some cases. Only Ben Zobrist, who went 1 for 4 endured a devaluation.
  • Below, I've included a picture of how the chart looked last time (when I update a Tableau doc, it updates all renditions):

Rays_shh_8-12-11_medium