In the same vein as this and this, I've done early napkin projections for the big 3 of the AL East. I opted to not project bullpens at all, given how volatile relievers are, and I know the bench projections are somewhat lazy. They're fairly conservative predictions, but even though some players may slightly over-perform the predicted numbers, a few will drastically underperform them (due to injury, or general ineffectiveness), so for teams as a whole, they should be relatively accurate. Some random notes after the jump.
| TB | WAR | NY | WAR | BOS | WAR | |
| C | Molina/Chirinos | 1 | Martin | 3.5 | Saltalamacchia | 3 |
| 1B | Pena/Canzler | 2 | Teixeira | 5 | Gonzalez | 6 |
| 2B | Zobrist | 6 | Cano | 5.5 | Pedroia | 6.5 |
| SS | Rodriguez/Brignac | 1 | Jeter | 2.5 | Aviles/Punto | 2 |
| 3B | Longoria | 7 | Rodriguez | 5.5 | Youkilis | 4.5 |
| LF | Jennings | 4 | Gardner | 5 | Crawford | 3.5 |
| CF | Upton | 4 | Granderson | 6 | Ellsbury | 6.5 |
| RF | Joyce/Guyer | 4 | Swisher | 4 | Sweeney | 1 |
| DH | Scott | 1.5 | Revolving Door | 1 | Ortiz | 3 |
| Bench | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Total | 31.5 | 39 | 37 | |||
| S1 | Shields | 4.5 | Sabathia | 6 | Lester | 4 |
| S2 | Price | 4 | Pineda | 3 | Beckett | 4 |
| S3 | Moore | 2.5 | Nova | 2 | Bard | 2 |
| S4 | Niemann | 2 | Garcia | 1.5 | Buchholz | 1.5 |
| S5 | Hellickson | 1.5 | Burnett | 1.5 | Lackey | 1.5 |
| Total | 14.5 | 14 | 13 | |||
| Total Total | 46 | 53 | 50 |
- Given that replacement level for a team is ~48.5 wins, this projects the Rays for 94.5 wins, Yankees for 101.5 wins, and Red Sox for 98.5 wins. Clearly my projections were still a little generous on the whole, probably due to health and such.
- The hardest player to project was Jacoby Ellsbury, no question.
- The Red Sox as a whole have a very high variance roster. Beckett, Ellsbury, Crawford, and Youkilis all have the potential to be worth more than 6 wins. They also could all be worth no more than 2 wins. Still, even if they end up in between, they'll still be very good players.
- In the end, these projections are just predictions, and they have little value more than just looking at last year's statistics. No need to get too hung up on them.
Discuss!